2020-21 Reasonable Expectations: Nikita Nesterov

The Calgary Flames haven’t had a Russian player as a regular member of their NHL roster since Andrei Zyuzin, way, way back in the 2006-07 season. In 2020-21, the Flames will finally have a Russian favour – and their new Russian is an Olympic gold medalist.

So what should Flames fans expect from defenseman Nikita Nesterov?

A product of Chelyabinsk, Russia, Nesterov came up with his hometown team. He was drafted by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2011 NHL Draft in the fifth round, and followed that up by making his KHL debut the following season with the KHL’s Traktor Chelyabinsk. After two seasons in Russian pro, he signed his entry level deal with the Lightning and made the big move across the Atlantic for the 2013-14 season.

Nesterov played parts of four seasons with the Lightning organization. In 2013-14 he spent his year with the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch where he put up 16 points in 54 games, good for third among that team’s blueline. He made his NHL debut in 2014-15, playing 27 games and generating seven points on the third pairing. In 2015-16, he increased his share of NHL games to 57 games, with nine points to show for it.

By the time the 2016-17 season rolled around, Nesterov was basically Tampa Bay’s version of Brett Kulak: too good for the AHL, but they had no obvious spot for him and he was no longer waiver exempt. After 39 games (and 12 points), Tampa sent him to Montreal for Jonathan Racine and a sixth round pick. He had five points in 13 games for Montreal, but wasn’t given a qualifying offer and became a free agent.

With his NHL prospects iffy, Nesterov headed back to Mother Russia. He spent the next three seasons with CSKA Moscow – the famous Red Army – where he was a consistently reliable offensive defender. He had 62 points combined over three seasons, or about 0.34 points per game. (From an NHLe perspective, that pro-rates to about 22 points over an 82 game season.)

His time in Russia also saw him captain the Olympic Athletes From Russia team to a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympics. They weren’t allowed to call themselves Russia due to sanctions against that country due to systemic doping violations over prior Olympics. He was named a KHL end-of-season All-Star in 2018-19 and helped CSKA captured the Gagarin Cup as the KHL’s playoff champions.

He signed a one year deal with the Flames in October which will pay him the league minimum of $700,000.

Nesterov hasn’t played in the NHL in three seasons so all we can do is gaze upon his results during his previous NHL sojourn and extrapolate.

So, in summary: Nesterov got a ton of offensive zone starts and while he did sit among Tampa’s leaders in xGF/60 (expected goals for per 60), he also had among their highest xGA/60 (expected goals against per 60). So he’s a high event player who both creates and bleeds scoring chances when he’s on the ice… assuming his game hasn’t changed much while he was winning championships and gold medals for Mother Russia.

What to expect from Nesterov? Well, if he’s the same guy he was in 2017, he’ll require oodles of offensive zone starts (and a good two-way defensive partner) and he’ll probably get 20-ish points over a full 82 game season (or something around 15 in a shorter season). He’s a third pairing guy and based on his limitations, it wouldn’t be unexpected to see him split time with Oliver Kylington on the third pairing. But if he’s managed to shore up his defensive game over the past three seasons, perhaps he could be a bigger part of the Flames’ blueline in 2020-21 than we anticipate.