A Look at the 2016-17 Western Conference
By Kent Wilson
7 years agoThe Flames are entering 2016-17 with different coaching, maturing youngsters and much better goaltending. It’s not unrealistic to expect the team to take a very real step forward.
But Calgary improving over last year’s roster isn’t enough. They also have to improve relative to the rest of the Western Conference in order to have a real shot at the playoffs. Last season, the Flames finished with 77 points, good for 12th in the West and 10 points back of the final Wild Card spot (Minnesota). That means they will probably have to leapfrog at least four teams and improve by 10 points to have a real shot.
With that in mind, here’s how things are shaping up in the West heading into the new season.
The Playoff Teams
Dallas Stars
- Last year: 109 points, 1st in West
- Trending: static
The Dallas Stars broke out big time last year, paced by one of the leagues most potent offences. Nothing much has changed in that department with the club boasting Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky and Radek Faksa, to name a few guys.
On the back-end, the Stars have elite blueline scorer John Klingberg and added the still competent Dan Hamhuis. Dallas’ back-end isn’t their strong point, but it’s likely better than it was.
The Stars’ main weakness is their goaltending. Jim Nill wasn’t able to break up the expensive but mediocre duo of Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen this summer, so the club is stuck hoping at least one of them will be competent for another season.
If that bet goes bad, the Stars might tumble from first overall, but they are a good bet to remain a super power.
St. Louis Blues
- Last year: 107 points, 2nd in West
- Trending: static
The Blues had a rough off-season. They lost David Backes, Troy Brouwer and Brian Elliott and didn’t really add anyone of note aside from maybe David Perron.
Nevertheless, this is a club still stacked with impressive depth. Up front they have Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Steen, Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz, Patrick Berglund and Robby Fabbri. On the back-end, they have Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Kevin Shattenkirk and Colton Parayko.
That is imposing from all angles.
While the goaltending probably won’t be as good, the Blues are still one of the West’s heavyweights.
Chicago Blackhawks
- Last year: 103 points, 3rd in the West
- Trending: down
The Blackhawks have been scary elite for a long time, but this year might be when they start to look a bit more human.
Because of increasing salary cap pressure, the Hawks have been bleeding depth for years. This summer they lost Teuvo Teravainen to budget pressures, leaving their top-6 forward rotation looking a lot more like a top-5. After the first two lines, the depth falls off precipitously – their bottom 2 forward units will feature a lot of cheap guys and guys you’ve never heard of before in 2016-17.
On the back-end, they have Duncan Keith (who is now 32) and Niklas Hjalmarsson who are still legit. After that, a lot of question marks and problems. Brent Seabrook, for instance, has been on the downward slope for a few seasons now and is set to soak up almost $7M cap space next season. He joins the very gradually aging Brian Campbell and then a bunch of kids to round things out.
In net, Corey Crawford has been very good for a couple of seasons so they should be fine if he stays healthy.
Overall, the Hawks still have Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa (though he’s getting on in years) and Duncan Keith and that counts for a lot. But eventually the erosion of the salary cap and the aging of their various pieces is going to catch up to them.
In fact, last year their CF% was just 50.65%, good for 15th in the league and the worst possession rate the team has managed in years. That doesn’t mean the Hawks are going to fall off completely this season, but they may have trouble staying in the top-3.
Anaheim Ducks
- Last year: 103 points, 4th in the West
- Trending: down
It’s hard to find a team in the league that had a worse summer than the Ducks. They traded one of the best bench bosses in Bruce Boudreau for one of the worst in Randy Carlyle. They also added marginal contributors like Mason Raymond, Jared Boll, Antoine Vermette and Korbinian Holzer. Their goaltending depth was also harmed by the Frederik Andersen trade.
Like the Hawks, Anaheim still has an impressive top-end in Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf up front and Hampus Lindholm/Sami Vantanen on the back-end, but it’s doubtful they will be able to completely overcome the influence of Carlyle, who has the ability to completely sink a roster.
Los Angeles Kings
- Last year: 102 points, 5th in the West
- Trending: down
The NHL’s reigning possession champs are also entering a transition phase. Anze Kopitar is now (rightly) one of the highest paid players in the league, but the Kings are littered with problematic contracts like Dustin Brown ($7M), Marian Gaborik ($6.1M) and Jonathan Quick ($7M). The Kings previously impressive core is getting older, more expensive and less effective.
Behind the big guns like Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin, things start to get messy in a hurry for LA with a few, minor exceptions. At some point, the roster is going to become too top heavy to stand upright.
Like the Hawks, the Kings probably won’t get bad over night but they probably won’t be quite as dominant at controlling play moving forward.
San Jose Sharks
- Last year: 98 points, 6th in the West
- Trending: Static
Aside from adding Mikkel Boedker and David Schlemko this off-season, the Sharks more or less stood pat. Not a terrible decision for the Western Conference champs, even if Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are on the wrong side of 30.
The Sharks have quality and depth at all positions and no major weaknesses. They may not be much better this season, but they probably won’t be much worse either.
Nashville Predators
- Last year: 96 points, 7th in the West
- Trending: up
The Predators famously added PK Subban this summer to what is already an above average blueline featuring Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, and Mattias Ekholm. Dropping the defensively suspect Shea Weber in the deal makes it a double win for the Preds.
Lost in the hype of the Subban trade is the fact that Nashville now boasts a pretty impressive collection of skaters up front as well. Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Ryan Johansen, Colin Wilson and Craig Smith make for a relatively imposing attack, something that has rarely been true in the Music City.
The Preds main issue is Pekka Rinne, who has been skating by on his reputation for awhile. The big Fin has been merely average the last couple of years despite a $7M price tag and the organization doesn’t seem to have anyone capable of usurping him.
Rinne isn’t strictly “bad” yet, so he’s probably not capable of sinking a roster of this quality.
Minnesota Wild
- Last year: 87 points, 8th in the West
- Trending: static
The Wild bumped Thomas Vanek for Eric Staal which is a win, but did nothing else this of note this off-season.
Minnesota is in an awkward stage where almost all of their expensive, high-end players are entering the back nine of their careers. Zach Parise (31), Mikko Koivu (33), Jason Pominville (33), Ryan Suter (31) and Staal (31), aren’t doddering quite yet, but they’re old enough that we can reasonably expect their performance to start to erode. Together, they collectively cost almost $30M in cap space.
As a result, they will likely be a middle-tier competitor in the West again, but are doubtful to improve.
The Basement
Colorado Avalanche
- Last year: 82 points, 9th in the West
- Trending: static
The NHL’s worst team at possessing the puck last year nevertheless has a pretty nice collection of players and now they don’t have to worry about Patrick Roy’s terrible systems holding them back. That said, we don’t know who they are going to replace him to run the bench yet. Nevertheless, it’s a good bet the next coach will be an improvement over the last one.
The Avs other problem is they’re cheap. After guys like Matt Duchene, Gabe Landeskog, and Nathan MacKinnon up front as well as Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie on the blueline, their depth drops off rapidly. Another bad coach or a few key injuries sinks this club.
Arizona Coyotes
- Last year: 78 points, 10th in the West
- Trending: down
Aside from Arizona’s small handful of quality youngsters in Tie Domi, Anthony Duclair and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the roster kind of looks like the Island of misfit toys. Their crease is crowded by the aging and expensive Mike Smith and Louis Domingue seems like a middling replacement.
Nothing to see here. The Coyotes will compete bravely all year, but they are a good bet to be in the race to the bottom.
Winnipeg Jets
- Last year: 78 points, 11th in the West
- Trending: up
When you glance at the Jets roster, it’s hard to understand how they finished so low last year. They lost Andrew Ladd to free agency, but they still have Mark Schiefele, Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Matthew Perreault and Nikolaj Ehlers up front. Joining them is Patrik Laine who will probably be a good NHLer sooner rather than later.
On the back-end is Dustin Byfuglien, Tobias Enstrom, Tyler Myers and Jacob Trouba (assuming they re-sign him) 21 year old, former 13th overall pick Josh Morrissey might be ready to make the leap to the show this yer as well.
In goal, Ondrej Pavelec has been undeservedly playing as the club’s starter for years, but may be usurped by one of Micheal Hutchinson or Connor Hellebuyck.
The Jets have excellent players at every position and many of them are young enough to expect improvement. They shouldn’t be in the West’s basement forever.
Calgary Flames
- Last year: 77 points, 12th in the West
- Trending: up
The Flames didn’t change much aside from the one place it really matters: in net. Adding Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson in the crease could be worth around a 30 goal boost alone, given how poor their netminding was last season.
If the new coaching staff is an improvement over the Hartley crew, the Flames could experience an even bigger jump, even if their forward depth beyond a few key guys like Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett and Mikael Backlund is questionable. Calgary’s blueline is also bifurcated between the elite (Giordano, Brodie and Hamilton) and then very bad (Wideman, Engelland and Smid), which could pose a problem if one of the top-3 gets hurt.
Vancouver Canucks
- Last year: 75 points, 13th in the West
- Trending: static
The Canucks are terrible. They were one of the worst even strength teams in the league last year and the twins phenoms trying to float their questionable roster are now 35 years old.
Benning and company tried to stem the bleeding this year by signing Loui Ericsson and trading for Erik Gudbranson, but it’s not enough. Their kids are just okay, their depth is bad, their goaltending is meh. A decent choice for worst team in the west.
Edmonton Oilers
- Last year: 70 points, 14th in the West
- Trending: ?
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: this year should be the year the Oilers take a step forward. It’s a common refrain we’ve heard during the Oil’s perpetual rebuild, but it could be that Connor McDavid might be the guy to finally make it a reality.
Not that that means the Oilers are going to leap into the upper echelon or anything. The Taylor Hall trade deleted one of the best wingers in the division in exchange for…a competent shut down defender. The problem for coach McLellan is that Adam Larsson isn’t enough to completely remake the terrible Edmonton blueline.
Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson are good youngsters and Andrej Sekera is a fine middle-tier option, but the Oilers still don’t have any truly legit top pairing guys. In addition, once you get past the club’s top-end up front, the depth drops off a cliff (though Jesse Puljujarvi might help that if he leaps fully formed into the show).
Conclusion
As you can tell, the competition is still pretty stiff. The Flames are positioned to be the big mover out of the basement dwellers, but they will have to find a way displace one of the incumbent playoff teams. While LA and Chicago might start trending down this year, for my money the most vulnerable amongst the top-8 are the Anaheim Ducks and Minnesota Wild.
Are the Flames good enough to take either of them out and re-enter the dance? We’ll soon see.
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