Black Box: Week 11
12 years ago
Last week we discussed how the Flames were the league’s 3rd worst road team (based on close game shot-based metrics), and sure enough they dropped three straight on the road to Nashville, Tampa Bay and Florida – and now they are dead last! Oh well, at least they walked away with two loser points.
Unfortunately they’re going to need a lot more loser points, because 8 of their next 10 games are being played on the road. Folks – don’t shoot the messenger, but the Flames will almost certainly be last in the Northwest by the time they host Minnesota January 7th.
OZQoC Charts (explanation)
Even-Strength Scoring (explanation)
Forward ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Mikael Backlund 0.3 59 49 54.5% 19 16 53.6% 1.39 3.07 31.2% Tim Jackman 1.1 52 44 54.5% 12 12 49.5% 1.32 2.85 31.7% Matt Stajan 1.1 56 47 54.3% 14 13 52.1% 1.81 2.72 40.0% David Moss 1.9 55 49 53.0% 11 14 43.3% 1.85 1.48 55.6% Lee Stempniak 1.7 56 50 52.6% 16 15 51.9% 2.42 2.57 48.5% Tom Kostopoulos 1.2 50 46 52.0% 13 12 53.3% 2.26 2.46 47.9% Blake Comeau 0.7 56 54 51.0% 16 15 51.9% 0.86 2.75 23.8% Brendan Morrison 1.5 50 54 47.8% 18 17 51.4% 2.46 1.23 66.7% Alex Tanguay 1.9 50 55 47.7% 20 16 56.0% 2.65 2.80 48.6% Jarome Iginla 1.8 53 59 47.4% 17 16 51.6% 2.56 2.81 47.7% Curtis Glencross 2.2 50 58 46.2% 14 16 47.2% 2.64 3.26 44.7% Olli Jokinen 2.5 50 59 46.2% 16 17 48.5% 3.41 3.00 53.2% Rene Bourque 1.4 43 52 45.2% 12 16 42.2% 2.68 2.52 51.5% P-L. Leblond 0.0 46 58 43.9% 8 12 40.0% 4.16 0.00 100.0% Roman Horak 1.8 41 57 42.1% 14 14 49.3% 2.58 1.78 59.2% Paul Byron 2.0 30 57 34.8% 13 14 48.1% 3.92 0.00 100.0% Greg Nemisz 0.0 28 65 30.0% 0 19 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.0%
We’re really not sure why the Flames would bench one of their best forwards, Mikael Backlund – probably for the exact same reason that some of the most successful teams in the league fired their coaches – because of the bad luck that inevitably occurs over short samples.
See how the team’s possession numbers are practically identical when Backlund is on the ice as they are when Jackman and Stajan are on the ice – and Backlund is playing top-six minutes instead of depth lines like they are (see the OZQoC chart above).
Normally possession statistics like CE% are simply in reverse order of the toughest assignments. Judging relative to the expectations we should have based on the OZQoC chart, the players who are over-achieving are most certainly Mikael Backlund and David Moss, and to a lesser extent Lee Stempniak and Alex Tanguay.
As we approach mid-season we’re starting to get enough data for the Corsi percentages to match the scoring chance percentages, especially for those who get lots of ice-time, like Jay Bouwmeester and Chris Butler. Unfortunately that means they’re in for a slide when the goal data starts to line up too.
Speaking of which, T.J. Brodie’s dip in goal percentage is just his great luck starting to average out, as he actually had a decent week possession-wise. The toughest week was actually for Scott Hannan, who has slowly tumbled to the bottom without partner Mark Giordano playing alongside.
Defense ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Brett Carson 0.0 70 41 63.4% 19 11 63.6% 0.00 5.41 0.0% T.J. Brodie 1.0 51 45 53.0% 17 14 54.8% 2.68 2.92 47.9% Derek Smith 0.8 52 49 51.8% 15 13 52.7% 2.15 1.66 56.4% Chris Butler 0.6 52 52 50.2% 16 16 51.0% 2.62 2.30 53.3% Jay Bouwmeester 0.7 52 53 49.3% 16 16 49.2% 2.63 2.22 54.2% Cory Sarich 0.3 49 51 49.1% 12 10 55.3% 1.78 2.37 42.9% Joe Piskula 0.0 50 59 45.9% 19 14 56.7% 0.00 5.54 0.0% Mark Giordano 0.7 48 58 45.7% 14 15 48.3% 2.29 2.29 50.0% Scott Hannan 0.6 46 56 45.2% 14 17 46.3% 2.66 2.55 51.1% Anton Babchuk 1.4 46 64 41.8% 10 17 36.8% 2.07 2.07 50.0%
Special teams (explanation)
It was a relief to finally see the Flames power play heading the right way, but it’s still terrible. Without question this is the area where a significant improvement would result in the greatest positive impact on the standings.
Player TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60 Anton Babchuk 2.2 3.4 94.7 Roman Horak 0.7 0.0 90.7 David Moss 1.3 0.0 88.7 Jay Bouwmeester 2.5 2.3 83.9 Jarome Iginla 3.5 3.7 80.2 Olli Jokinen 3.3 4.0 79.5 Rene Bourque 3.1 3.1 77.1 Lee Stempniak 2.0 2.9 74.2 Alex Tanguay 3.4 4.5 72.6 Mikael Backlund 1.5 4.8 71.9 Chris Butler 0.6 6.1 70.5 Mark Giordano 3.5 3.0 70.0 Curtis Glencross 1.9 3.2 69.7 Tim Jackman 0.6 0.0 68.7 T.J. Brodie 1.8 1.9 67.1 Derek Smith 1.4 5.0 67.0 Blake Comeau 0.9 0.0 62.8 Brendan Morrison 1.3 5.9 61.7
The turning point for the Flames PK was definitely when they started using veterans like Alex Tanguay and Olli Jokinen more often, as they’ve slowly improved from the league’s worst penalty kill to something somewhat closer to respectable, which is particularly impressive given the absence of Mark Giordano.
Player TOI/GP CE/60 Jay Bouwmeester 3.6 91.7 Scott Hannan 2.8 79.3 Chris Butler 2.4 95.7 Curtis Glencross 2.3 88.3 Mark Giordano 2.2 92.6 Lee Stempniak 1.8 82.0 Rene Bourque 1.6 83.8 David Moss 1.5 143.1 Tom Kostopoulos 1.4 84.0 Blake Comeau 0.9 82.6 Alex Tanguay 0.9 74.8 Mikael Backlund 0.8 85.0 Matt Stajan 0.6 140.6 Olli Jokinen 0.6 72.3 Cory Sarich 0.5 163.3 Derek Smith 0.4 45.2 Brendan Morrison 0.4 83.5 Roman Horak 0.4 111.9 Brett Carson 0.3 109.1
Goaltending (explanation)
Miikka Kiprusoff stopped 43 of 45 against Nashville, but his only point came when he stopped just 29 of 34 in Tampa Bay. Leland Irving stopped 39 of 41 but the Flames were on the road so he was really just wasting his time. Rookie mistake!
Goalie GS QS QS% ESSV% Leland Irving 1 1 100.0% .943 Miikka Kiprusoff 26 15 58.3% .924 Henrik Karlsson 5 1 20.0% .904
That’s it for this week, and while it’s been a struggle watching the Flames up until this point of the season, we’re warning you now that the next few weeks are going to even worse, so brace yourself. And whatever you do, don’t drink too much egg nog and get sucked into wagers by your out-of-town relatives!
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