Black Box: Week 2
12 years ago
Every Monday we’ll be posting a weekly statistical update on how the Flames have fared with each of their individual players on the ice. Last week was rather tame, but now that we have four games worth of data, things ought to start getting interesting.
OZQoC Charts (explanation)
Coach Brent Sutter has taken the surprising step of using Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay and their centre-du-jour (David Moss or Roman Horak) in the toughest situations. Despite their historical inadequacies defensively they’ve started largely in their own zone against the best competition, although in fairness it’s not easy to pick spots on the road (the home team gets the last line change).
Olli Jokinen, Lee Stempniak and Curtis Glencross have been the primary benefactors, enjoying the easiest ice-time, by far. Truth be told, the Flames are doing the exact opposite of what we expected. Call it a Reverse-Vigneault: expose your weak defensive players, and carefully shelter your fastest two-way line.
Not much to conclude on the blue line, though – all defensemen are being used roughly equally, although you could argue Mark Giordano and Scott Hannan might be getting a little boost.
Even-Strength Scoring (explanation)
Unfortunately we lost the scoring chance data for their lone victory, which is going to skew the numbers a little bit, since all the other calculations are based on all four games. For that reason, don’t be surprised if scoring chance data doesn’t correlate as well to Corsi or goal-based data as usual.
Normally all the numbers are adjusted for ice-time, and presented as a rate over 60 minutes, but thanks to the missing data that gets a little too confusing for the scoring chance data, so those are just the raw numbers.
Player ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Lee Stempniak 2.4 61 49 55.4% 13 12 52.0% 4.76 5.95 44.4% Olli Jokinen 3.4 64 51 55.4% 16 10 61.5% 4.46 4.46 50.0% Curtis Glencross 3.7 59 55 51.7% 13 10 56.5% 3.68 4.91 42.8% Scott Hannan 1.9 47 47 50.1% 14 7 66.7% 1.92 2.88 40.0% Mark Giordano 1.0 54 56 49.1% 15 6 71.4% 2.89 2.89 50.0% Jay Bouwmeester 0.0 55 59 48.2% 12 22 35.3% 4.15 2.49 62.5% Chris Butler 0.9 52 57 47.9% 13 22 37.1% 4.50 3.60 55.6% David Moss 1.3 51 56 47.7% 6 16 27.3% 1.25 1.25 50.0% Alex Tanguay 2.1 56 62 47.7% 13 20 39.4% 2.12 4.24 33.3% Matt Stajan 1.4 47 53 47.2% 6 7 46.2% 2.77 2.77 50.0% Derek Smith 0.0 49 55 46.8% 0 2 0.0% 0.00 4.42 0.0% Niklas Hagman 2.7 50 57 46.8% 7 5 58.3% 4.04 0.00 100.0% Jarome Iginla 0.0 54 64 45.8% 13 20 39.4% 0.91 2.73 25.0% Rene Bourque 2.6 46 60 43.4% 6 5 54.5% 3.82 3.82 50.0% Tom Kostopoulos 0.0 39 51 43.3% 2 1 66.7% 0.00 2.06 0.0% Cory Sarich 0.0 40 61 39.8% 5 9 35.7% 0.00 3.65 0.0% Tim Jackman 0.0 34 58 37.0% 2 5 28.6% 0.00 5.94 0.0% Anton Babchuk 2.1 41 78 34.4% 6 9 40.0% 2.05 2.05 50.0% Roman Horak 1.6 28 71 28.5% 3 3 50.0% 1.58 1.58 50.0%
Given their softer assignment it comes as no surprise that the Jokinen-Stempniak-Glencross line is the only one enjoying territorial advantage over their opponents. Same goes to the Hannan-Giordano pairing, but to a lesser extent, even though they’ve enjoyed a lot of great luck converting that advantage into scoring chances (but unfortunately not goals).
The Bouwmeester-Butler pairing has been outplayed and seriously out-chanced, but has been fortunate enough to be the only unit to out-score their opponents.
These stats can also help confirm that we’ve been seeing with our own eyes – that Anton Babchuk and Roman Horak are really struggling out there – and Cory Sarich too. The bigger surprise is how badly that fourth line is doing given how successful Kostopoulos and Jackman were last season.
As for that top line of Iginla-Tanguay-Whoever, they’ve had some tough ice time, have generally been playing without the puck, and have really paid the price. Once Sutter starts using them more wisely, and their luck improves, their numbers ought to bounce back – and Morrison is likely to get credit assuming his return is timed just right.
Special teams (explanation)
The power play blue line pairing of Alex Tanguay and Mark Giordano is getting the bulk of the power play time, but have been relying on luck for their scoring, instead of puck possession. Have you been more impressed with the play of Jay Bouwmeester and Anton Babchuk? The Flames are generating shots at three times the rate with that secondary pairing.
Player TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60 Jay Bouwmeester 1.3 11.6 151.1 Anton Babchuk 1.5 0.0 139.3 Chris Butler 0.9 17.1 119.4 Niklas Hagman 1.8 8.3 90.8 David Moss 1.5 0.0 80.2 Olli Jokinen 2.8 5.4 80.2 Rene Bourque 2.9 5.2 73.4 Lee Stempniak 2.1 0.0 65.6 Jarome Iginla 2.9 5.1 61.7 Alex Tanguay 4.0 7.5 48.5 Curtis Glencross 1.3 0.0 46.9 Roman Horak 0.7 0.0 46.4 Mark Giordano 3.6 4.2 46.0
The primary penalty killing duties on the blue line have been placed on the shoulders of Jay Bouwmeester, backed up by Scott Hannan, Mark Giordano and Chris Butler, the latter of which is the surprising high performer.
Player TOI/GP CE/60 Jay Bouwmeester 3.8 107.9 Scott Hannan 3.1 120.8 Mark Giordano 3.0 114.1 Chris Butler 2.9 88.5 Rene Bourque 2.7 88.8 Curtis Glencross 2.2 82.1 Tom Kostopoulos 2.1 139.0 Lee Stempniak 1.7 117.3 David Moss 1.6 119.1 Roman Horak 1.5 99.4 Cory Sarich 1.0 183.8 Matt Stajan 0.9 185.0 Alex Tanguay 0.8 136.9
Up front Rene Bourque and Curtis Glencross have unquestionably been their top penalty killers.
Goaltending (explanation)
Only one quality start in four starts for the Flames, and that was Kiprusoff’s game three win over the Montreal Canadiens. Neither goalie has played particularly well so far, but at least Kipper’s almost average.
Goalie GS QS QS% ESSV% Miikka Kiprusoff 3 1 33.3% .909 Henrik Karlsson 1 0 0.0% .844
That’s it for this week folks. Now that we have some meat on the bones, how does the format of our weekly statistical review look?
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