Black Box: Week 7
12 years ago
In today’s NHL it’s normally wise to keep scoring down. The lower the scoring, the greater the chance for shoot-out or overtime, leading to a lot more so-called loser points (plus a roughly 50% chance of a further point) In fact, if you could arrange to end every regulation game tied you’d earn at least 82 points, plus likely another 41 from what is effectively a statistical coin toss, giving you 123 points and the President’s trophy. All of sudden Guy Boucher’s trap makes a great deal of sense!
Unfortunately the low-scoring natures of Flames games haven’t earned the expected results, as only a single one of their 18 games has gone into overtime. Compare that with their divisional rivals like the Colorado Avalanche (6) and the Minnesota Wild (7). If the Flames could have carried 6 more of their 9 losses into overtime and won half then the gap between 26th-place Calgary and 1st-place Minnesota would vanish.
Let’s open this week’s black box and see where those six losses could have been converted into extra frames.
OZQoC Charts (explanation)
Interest in OZQoC charts has really been picking up lately, recent sightings include the Copper and Blue and the Seven Sens. The reason it’s so popular is because you can tell with just a glance how the players are being used, something that appeals even to the most stats-aversed fans.
In the four games since he’s been back Mikael Backlund has no points and is -5, but we’d like to present evidence of his excellent play, and this is Exhibit A. Not even Curtis Glencross and Olli Jokinen don’t even seem to be facing tougher opponents than Mikael Backlund (although Qual Comp can be skewed by small samples), and only Roman Horak is ever-so-slightly getting stuck with defensive zone start assignments.On the flip side, coach Brent Sutter has about as much confidence using T.J. Brodie, Anton Babchuk and Derek Smith in tough situations as I have in wearing the old under-hockey-gear t-shirt on my next date.
If I extended the graph far enough to the bottom and left it would eventually include Paul Byron and Pierre-Luc Leblond too. The Flames are very much a four-defenseman team, you can even see how they rotate the other three when one of them takes a penalty.
Even-Strength Scoring (explanation)
Your honour, allow me to present Exhibit B in Backlund’s defense: our even-strength scoring data, atop of which the young Swede sits. Despite the tough nature of the situations in which he plays, the Calgary Flames control the play, dominate the shot count and get the higher proportion of scoring chances when Backlund is on the ice.
Forward ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Mikael Backlund 0.0 62 50 55.1% 25 15 62.9% 1.14 6.87 14.2% David Moss 1.9 55 49 53.0% 11 14 43.3% 1.85 1.48 55.6% Matt Stajan 1.2 55 51 52.1% 12 14 46.0% 2.07 2.89 41.7% Tim Jackman 0.8 47 43 52.1% 8 11 41.3% 1.23 2.45 33.3% Lee Stempniak 2.2 56 55 50.4% 18 16 52.4% 3.24 2.70 54.5% Brendan Morrison 0.0 52 53 49.7% 15 16 49.1% 1.17 0.00 100.0% Curtis Glencross 2.7 54 56 49.2% 15 13 53.3% 3.22 3.22 50.0% Jarome Iginla 0.8 54 56 48.8% 16 16 49.0% 1.26 2.73 31.6% Tom Kostopoulos 1.9 46 48 48.6% 10 10 49.0% 1.90 1.52 55.6% Olli Jokinen 2.2 53 56 48.5% 14 15 48.8% 2.87 2.87 50.0% Alex Tanguay 2.2 54 57 48.4% 19 16 53.8% 2.18 2.91 42.8% Rene Bourque 1.1 46 55 45.9% 10 16 38.1% 2.36 2.62 47.4% P-L. Leblond 0.0 46 58 43.9% 8 12 40.0% 4.16 0.00 100.0% Roman Horak 2.3 37 56 40.0% 12 13 48.7% 2.94 1.31 69.2% Paul Byron 3.0 30 66 31.3% 15 15 50.0% 5.98 0.00 100.0%
The problem is once again like if I wore my old beer league t-shirt on my next date: I’d have no luck at all. The Flames are scoring on just 3.3% of their shots with Backlund on the ice, the lowest on the team (though still higher than my “scoring” rate) – and yet Kipper has stopped just 76.0% of the shots behind him. No wonder he’s -5!
Now take a look at Paul Byron, your honour. Not only does he start in the offensive zone against weak opponents, but the Flames are getting dominated when he’s on the ice. Move to strike!
In his brief time this season Byron’s been riding the percentages as hard as the percentages have been riding Backlund. The Flames have scored on a whopping 23.5% of shots with Byron on the ice, while Kipper has stopped opponents like a buffet table stopping Dustin Byfuglien.
While we’re at it, this is the same reason why Roman Horak can’t be expected to continue to lead the Flames with a +5, and his 7 points in 16 games. The Flames are also dominated with Horak on the ice (although he often starts in his own zone, in his defense), and his success is by virtue of a 15.0% on-ice shooting percentage, and a .951 save percentage.
A PDO (the sum of the two, named after its creator) of 1101 is not sustainable, it tends to regress to 1000 over time, at which point everyone will unfairly accuse Horak of being an inconsistent European who is clutching his stick too hard and doesn’t have heart. Everyone except those who have been looking inside the Black Box, that is.
If I was asked to name Calgary’s most pleasant surprise instead of Horak I’d choose Chris Butler. Given his usage in Buffalo I didn’t expect him to be able to step up and replace Robyn Regehr on the top line and keep up with top opposing lines. Clearly I was as wrong as the time I actually did wear that old shirt on a date.
Defense ESP/60 CEF CEA CE% SCF SCA SC% GF GA G% Chris Butler 0.4 54 49 52.1% 16 16 51.2% 2.56 2.56 50.0% Derek Smith 0.4 52 48 51.9% 11 11 50.0% 1.76 1.41 55.5% Jay Bouwmeester 0.7 54 51 51.5% 15 16 49.1% 2.51 2.51 50.0% Cory Sarich 0.4 49 51 48.8% 12 9 55.9% 1.81 1.81 50.0% Mark Giordano 0.6 49 59 45.6% 13 15 46.1% 2.22 2.42 47.8% T.J. Brodie 1.2 43 54 44.5% 18 14 55.6% 3.58 1.19 75.1% Scott Hannan 1.0 46 59 43.9% 13 15 46.3% 2.45 2.04 54.6% Anton Babchuk 1.4 46 64 41.8% 10 17 36.8% 2.07 2.07 50.0%
It’s disappointing to see how much T. J. Brodie and Anton Babchuk are struggling despite the fluffiness of their assignments, but at least Derek Smith is making the most of it. It’s also been disappointing to see Mark Giordano and Scott Hannan sink further and further underwater despite Chris Butler and Jay Bouwmeester taking on the tougher time. While we’re talking about disappointments, let’s take that nice segue into Calgary’s power play.
Special teams (explanation)
The Calgary Flames are currently 28th with a power play as putrid as the Superstore yogourt I inadvisably bought at 50% off a month ago (there’s a reason those are marked down, folks).
While some fans may be puzzled by their drop to just 12.5% (and by my aforementioned purchase), but it comes as no surprise to anyone that’s been looking inside the Black Box every week. They simply have not been taking enough shots. This hasn’t been bad luck, it’s been bad performance.
Player TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60 T.J. Brodie 0.6 0.0 96.7 Anton Babchuk 2.2 3.4 94.7 Jay Bouwmeester 2.2 3.0 91.0 David Moss 1.3 0.0 88.7 Chris Butler 0.6 5.9 88.0 Roman Horak 1.2 0.0 80.0 Derek Smith 0.7 0.0 79.6 Mikael Backlund 2.3 0.0 79.4 Lee Stempniak 1.8 0.0 78.9 Olli Jokinen 3.1 3.2 78.6 Brendan Morrison 1.2 0.0 77.5 Jarome Iginla 3.4 4.9 74.6 Tim Jackman 0.8 0.0 73.5 Rene Bourque 3.0 2.2 71.0 Curtis Glencross 2.2 3.3 70.6 Mark Giordano 3.6 2.8 66.5 Alex Tanguay 3.5 3.8 62.2
Get Alex Tanguay off the point, and use Anton Babchuk and Jay Bouwmeester, and give guys like David Moss, Mikael Backlund and Lee Stempniak more of a try.
We’ve been looking at developing a new statistic called Quality Power Plays – which would be awarded to any 5-on-4 situation where at least four shots were attempted – but until then count along as you watch. Count any attempted shot whether it reaches the goalie or not, that includes blocked shots, goal posts, those deflected wide and those that missed the net entirely (we call those “Phaneufs”). If they get four, don’t despair. I really rather wish that rhymed.
The same principle applies when killing penalties, but unfortunately even the best Flames penalty killers like Jay Bouwmeester are allowing almost four shots per two minutes.
Player TOI/GP CE/60 Jay Bouwmeester 2.9 112.7 Scott Hannan 2.5 103.1 Mark Giordano 2.4 97.0 Chris Butler 2.3 99.8 Curtis Glencross 2.1 94.3 Lee Stempniak 1.7 96.8 Rene Bourque 1.7 100.3 David Moss 1.5 143.1 Tom Kostopoulos 1.4 110.9 Mikael Backlund 1.1 94.7 Brendan Morrison 0.8 84.6 Matt Stajan 0.8 149.3 Roman Horak 0.6 111.9 Cory Sarich 0.6 180.8
Lee Stempniak got a bit more time this week, and Mikael Backlund’s return (Exhibit C) should help reduce their reliance on those who are struggling the most short-handed, like Rene Bourque and David Moss. On that note, let’s wrap this up with the goaltending.
Goaltending (explanation)
You can’t ask much more of a goalie than to deliver Quality Starts 60% of the time, as Miikka Kiprusoff has done. He’s stopped 93% of the shots at even-strength, and it’s a shame that his solid start to the season couldn’t have resulted in more points.
Goalie GS QS QS% ESSV% Miikka Kiprusoff 15 9 60.0% .930 Henrik Karlsson 3 1 33.3% .909
On the bright side you can expect Miikka Kiprusoff’s solid performance to continue for as long as the team isn’t generating enough offense for it to matter.
And that’s how it looks after seven weeks, thanks in advance to all my reader(s) for their kind words and comments!
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