Flames Comparables – Part 1

 

It can be very difficult to predict how many points a player will score from season-to-season.  Just look at the scoring leaders from the last two seasons – Henrik Sedin was a career 80-point man who suddenly decided to score 112 at age 29, and Evgeni Malkin was 23 years old and coming off seasons of 106 and 113 points only to get stopped at 77.  Did these guys switch jerseys or something?

 It may seem like a fool’s errand to even attempt to predict this year’s scoring totals for the Calgary Flames, and maybe it is, but we’ve got a secret weapon.  We’re going to use an approach that searches the NHL’s long history for players with statistics similar to our beloved Flames – their “comparables.”  I’d like to emphasize that a player’s comparables are not similar players, but rather players with similar statistics.  There’s a bit of a difference since two very different players can have similar statistics under certain circumstances, like ice-time or their linemates, but if those circumstances continue, then it can be enlightening to study the futures of even those comparables.

 Let’s briefly review the methodology – skip this if you like – and then jump right into it. 

There are many different ways to search history for comparable players, each one with its advantages and disadvantages.  For purposes of this article we’re normalizing all NHL data to modern-day scoring levels, then looking only at two things: goals-per-game and assists-per-game, weighted equally.  For each player we’re looking at their current season, their previous season, and their historical totals prior to the previous season, weighted 4-2-1.  We’re throwing out any player that is more than 2 years younger or older than our target player, played the wrong position (defense vs forward), and anyone that either retired or had particularly severe injuries.

 Bottom line, we’re going to wind up with ten players whose career arcs are similar to our target players.  Some players will be more similar in terms of over-all career, other players will be more similar with regards to the two most recent seasons, over-all we should have a mix. 

 We’ve arbitrarily chosen to look at the ten closest comparables, even though we’d probably be better off with a larger sample size, even if that meant including less similar players.  So why 10?  Even with ten players you’ll already observe a pretty wide spread in expectations, and in my experience the picture doesn’t necessarily get that much clearer when looking at 25, 50 or 100.  Ten players is also more fun – it allows us to get more up close and personal with the comparables, and make a better determination of where our target player actually fits on the scale.

 So without further ado, let’s jump right in with the very heart and soul of the Calgary Flames.

 Two years ago Jarome Iginla scored 50 goals at 30 years of age, something you don’t see very often.  With the exception of his award-winning 2001-02 season at the magical age of 24 (52 goals, 96 points), Iginla was an established 30 goal, 70 point man until age 29, when he scored 124 goals and 281 points in 234 games over the next three seasons.  Perhaps age inexplicably caught up to Iginla last year as he returned to previously established production levels – will he stay there, or bounce back?

It’s not easy to find good comparables with players as unique as Iginla, but given that our list has 4 Hall of Famers, it can’t be that far off.  Iginla’s even-strength scoring rate has fallen from 3.3 points per 60 minutes in 2006-07, to 2.8, 2.5 and finally 2.0 last season – barely above the 1.8 threshold for top-six players.  The survey on Behind the Net’s “Reasonable Expectations” series has him pegged for around 75 points, which strikes me as reasonable if he stays healthy – a safe bet since he has missed games only once since the lock-out.  Hopefully Iginla will channel his inner Bucyk, who played for 11 more seasons, including a monster year at age 35.

 Olli Jokinen scored just 86 points in his first 314 games until he finally had his breakout season – once again at magic age 24 – leaping to 36 goals and 65 points.  After the lock-out he hit his prime, scoring a whopping 180 points over 2 seasons, before making his gradual decline to the 50 point player he is today. 

His unusually low shooting percentage of 6.4% will probably bounce back to 10%, meaning he ought to beat the average of 21 goals if he stays healthy – a safe bet since he has missed just 13 games in the past 11 years.  Given the precedent set by Kisio and Boldirev, along with the ample supply of first-line opportunities with Iginla and Tanguay, he’s a possibility for 60 points.  Anything more is pushing it.

Alex Tanguay scored at an amazing 3.3 even-strength points per 60 minutes clip as a Flame in 2006-07, setting career highs of 59 assists and 81 points, his 3^rd straight point-a-game season.  He quickly returned to the 2.2-2.5 range before dropping below the top-six level last year in Tampa Bay with 1.7, resulting in just 10 goals and 37 points, his first ever negative plus/minus, and his first year without play-off hockey.  Is it the beginning of the end, or will he bounce back?

All but two of these seasons would be improvements for Tanguay, although it is revealing that those two exceptions basically marked the premature end of a career. 

 Scoring more goals should be easy for him.  Tanguay’s 11.0% shooting percentage last year may not sound low, but it’s his lowest ever – Tanguay is like Andrew Brunette and doesn’t shoot unless he has an open net (and even then he looks for the pass).  If he managed 27 assists during an off-year on Tampa’s secondary line, he’ll surely do way better on Calgary’s top line.  If 14 goals and 28 assists are the expectations, and if he plays at least 78 games as he has in 3 of the past 4 seasons, then I’ll take the “over” in both cases.

 Rene Bourque didn’t make his NHL debut until he scored 34 points at age 24, which stood as his career high until coming to Flames, where he has posted 98 points in 131 games and topped the team in even-strength scoring rate over the both seasons.  The key issue with Bourque has been injuries, having missed a whopping 90 games since the lock-out.

It’s amazing how Bourque’s comparables are a tight pack of offensively-gifted 2nd-line wingers, it helps us feel that we have a solid projection here.  In my view, Bourque has proven that he is the Flames best scorer; granted he doesn’t face shut-down players as often as those on the top line.  With a healthy year alongside some hot linemates and I could easily see Bourque earn a 25-goal, 60-point season.