Flames Comparables – Part 2
By Kent Wilson
13 years ago
(Today we present the second part of Robert Vollman’s Flames Comparables series. This post will focus on some "supporting" offensive players)
Matt Stajan, 27
Acquired in the Phaneuf deal, the Flames have invested $3.5 million a year in Matt Stajan, so you know they’ll give him every opportunity to succeed. Stajan has shown steady improvement throughout his career, leaving him on the brink of breaking the 20 goal and 60 point barriers after two seasons on the cusp.
Age Closest Comparable GP G A PTS
25 Tim Ecclestone 1972-73 78 15 27 42
26 Craig Ramsay 1977-78 80 23 38 61
26 Larry Popein 1956-57 67 11 21 32
27 Derek Smith 1981-82 61 6 11 17
27 Mike Ribeiro 2007-08 76 27 57 84
25 Don Raleigh 1951-52 70 20 52 72
25 Jarret Stoll 2007-08 81 14 22 36
28 Kelly Kisio 1987-88 77 17 42 59
29 Blake Dunlop 1982-83 78 16 33 49
29 Steve Kasper 1988-89 78 14 24 38
Worst (Smith) 82 8 14 22
Best (Ribeiro) 82 30 61 91
Average 82 18 36 54
Personally I’m really curious if Stajan could have a break-out season like Mike Ribeiro if he had an opportunity on the top line and the 1st power play unit. Stajan could actually be Tanguay’s equal as a playmaker, which ought to get him those 36 assists even if he’s “stuck” with Bourque, and far more if he can win a spot from the faltering Jokinen. Since goal-scoring won’t be his focus regardless of where he plays, I figure 20 is his high water mark, and even that might take a lucky break in shooting percentage. Pencil me in for the “over” on this one.
Niklas Hagman, 31, 2nd/depth LW
Niklas Hagman, son of the NHL’s first Finnish-trained player Matti “Hakki” Hagman, should be easy to predict. His even-strength scoring rate has been exactly 2.0 per 60 minutes for three straight years, during which time he always topped 20 goals and 40 points. Still, his scoring slipped a bit as a Flame, and at his age he’s bound to return to his previously-established scoring level of 21-29 points eventually – will it be this year?
Age Closest Comparable GP G A PTS
32 Chris Clark 2008-09 32 1 5 6
33 Dave Reid 1997-98 65 6 13 19
29 Scott Mellanby 1995-96 79 28 35 63
33 Ron Murphy 1966-67 39 10 16 26
33 Kenny Wharram 1966-67 70 29 33 62
29 Don Saleski 1978-79 51 10 4 14
31 Mike McPhee 1991-92 78 13 12 25
30 Ernie Hicke 1977-78 41 8 13 21
32 Eddie Shack 1969-70 73 21 12 33
29 Keith Jones 1997-98 23 3 8 11
Worst (Clark) 82 2 12 14
Best (Wharram) 82 34 39 73
Average 82 17 22 39
Unless Hagman is traded to a team with players like Stan Mikita, Bobby Hull and Phil Esposito, I doubt he’ll bloom this late into a 60-point player like 33-year-old Kenny Wharram.
Instead look at Mike McPhee – now there was another player to whom you could set your watch. In his 10 NHL seasons he invariably scored 16-23 goals and 15-22 assists, right up until and including his final season at age 33. His worst season came at age 31 due to increased competition on the left side, and that’s the key for Hagman, too. Sandwiched between Tanguay and Glencross on the depth chart, with Iggy, Bourque and Moss on the right side, Hagman will have to prove himself to Coach Sutter quickly to continue to score at this level.
Daymond Langkow, 34, depth C
Acquired for depth talent Denis Gauthier and Oleg Saprykin just before the lock-out, Langkow has been one of the Flames most consistent two-way players, spiking to 33 goals and 77 points at age 30 before making a precipitous but consistent decline to just 14 goals and 37 points three seasons later. If we unrealistically assume he’s healthy, will Langkow bounce back to a top-six rate of scoring, or are the Flames paying $4.25 million for another Craig Conroy?
Age Closest Comparable GP G A PTS
34 Baldy Cotton 1936-37 29 2 0 2
32 Scott Mellanby 1998-99 67 19 29 48
34 Miroslav Satan 2008-09 65 17 18 35
34 Andy Hebenton 1963-64 70 12 11 23
33 Todd White 2008-09 82 21 49 70
35 Dave Taylor 1990-91 73 18 24 42
32 Joe Carveth 1950-51 30 1 5 6
32 Gerry Meehan 1978-79 18 2 3 5
34 Eric Nesterenko 1967-68 71 11 26 37
32 Trevor Linden 2002-03 71 20 23 43
Worst (Cotton) 82 6 0 6
Best (White) 82 21 49 70
Average 82 15 23 38
Things don’t look good for Langkow. Even without the news of his slow recovery from last season’s injury, a high number of his comparables had to wrap up their career at this point of their arcs – 3 players on this list and 2 that just missed, Dave Poulin and Rick Kehoe.
Still, Langkow’s decline has been far faster than it ought to have been, and his fine defensive play should guarantee him the ice-time opportunities he needs to demonstrate whether he still has the scoring touch. In the unlikely event that he’s 100%, I’ll take the over.
(Stay tuned for Part 3 tomorrow)
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