Flames Forwards Shot Rates – Part 1
By Kent Wilson
11 years agoRyan Lambert recently noted Mike Cammalleri’s low shot volume in his Five Things feature. That mention got me curious about investigating the main guy’s shot rates last year in depth and to relate it to their possession rates and overall performance.
The best scorers in the league are high volume shooters. Usually, they combine some degree of accuracy as well (12-13% or better personal shooting percentage), but getting a lot of goals almost always comes down to getting a lot of shots. That’s one of the reason why it’s important for a team’s stars to be in the offensive zone and getting pucks on net.
I’m going to restrict this inquiry to even strength shot rates. PP ice time is restricted to a few guys and dependent on opportunity, so not as that indicative of ability. Let’s start with the basics (info via www.behindthnet.ca):
NAME | GP | TOI/60 | G | SH |
---|---|---|---|---|
JAROMEIGINLA | 82 | 16.37 | 22 | 161 |
OLLIJOKINEN | 82 | 14.63 | 13 | 144 |
BLAKECOMEAU | 74 | 13.21 | 5 | 114 |
MICHAELCAMMALLERI | 66 | 13.76 | 17 | 98 |
LEESTEMPNIAK | 61 | 12.57 | 12 | 95 |
TOMKOSTOPOULOS | 81 | 10.75 | 2 | 80 |
DAVIDMOSS | 32 | 11.5 | 2 | 74 |
MIKAELBACKLUND | 41 | 13.02 | 2 | 70 |
CURTISGLENCROSS | 67 | 13.3 | 15 | 68 |
MATTSTAJAN | 61 | 11.36 | 7 | 66 |
ALEXTANGUAY | 64 | 13.82 | 10 | 46 |
Nothing really unexpected here – Iginla and Jokinen played the most at 5on5 and also played the full 82-game season, so were bound to lead the pack. Now, let’s see how efficient each player was with his ice time by controlling for that variable:
NAME | GP | TOI/60 | G | SH | TS | ES ICE | shots/game | shots/60 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DAVIDMOSS | 32 | 11.5 | 2 | 74 | 76 | 368 | 2.38 | 12.39 |
LEESTEMPNIAK | 61 | 12.57 | 12 | 95 | 107 | 767 | 1.75 | 8.37 |
JAROMEIGINLA | 82 | 16.37 | 22 | 161 | 183 | 1342 | 2.23 | 8.18 |
MIKAELBACKLUND | 41 | 13.02 | 2 | 70 | 72 | 534 | 1.76 | 8.09 |
OLLIJOKINEN | 82 | 14.63 | 13 | 144 | 157 | 1200 | 1.91 | 7.85 |
MICHAELCAMMALLERI | 66 | 13.76 | 17 | 98 | 115 | 908 | 1.74 | 7.60 |
BLAKECOMEAU | 74 | 13.21 | 5 | 114 | 119 | 978 | 1.61 | 7.30 |
MATTSTAJAN | 61 | 11.36 | 7 | 66 | 73 | 693 | 1.20 | 6.32 |
TOMKOSTOPOULOS | 81 | 10.75 | 2 | 80 | 82 | 871 | 1.01 | 5.65 |
CURTISGLENCROSS | 67 | 13.3 | 15 | 68 | 83 | 891 | 1.24 | 5.59 |
ALEXTANGUAY | 64 | 13.82 | 10 | 46 | 56 | 884 | 0.88 | 3.80 |
To put these rates in context, here’s an article from Cam Charron last March looking at the league leaders in ES shots/60. The top 20 or so players were in the 10+ shots/60 territory. The list includes high-end stars (Zetterberg, Kessel, Nash, Ovechkin) emerging snipers (Seguin, Kane, Landeskog) and a smattering of third liners who are good enough to outplay other third liners like Moss (Cleary, Clarkson, Larose, Kennedy).
In the next part of this series, I will show why the Flames stars shot rates are relatively lackluster by applying corsi/possession stats and showing how they moderate personal and on-ice scoring rates.
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