Flames Scoring Chances and Goals ratios

 

 

In a comment in the post below, Tach asked if I could share the raw scoring chance totals so they could be related to actual goals scored. I’ve added that info to this article, after which we can go through and investigate some of the implications.

Here’s how things shook out up front:

The table is sorted from most chances for (CF) to least for each Flames forward. The other columns are chances against (CA), scoring chance ratio (%CF), goals for (GFON) and goals against (GAON) while on the ice, goals ratio (G%), the rate at which chances for translate into goals for (finish%) and against (Opp finish%).

Of course, this is all just even strength info.

The Flames chance for rate for the forwards goal for-against ratio (50.6%) trailed their chances for-against ratio (52.5%) at even strength this year. Ignoring he players with less than 50 events (Conroy, Meyer), it’s interesting to see how players varied around the mean. Of note:

– In many ways Kotalik isn’t a great hockey player, but the dude has been crapped on by lady luck recently. Especially this past year where the Flames finish% on their chances with him on the ice was 8.4% (!!), while the oppositions finish % was 20.6% (!!). I don’t have much time for Kotalik as a player, but unless he was routinely firing pucks in his own net, I think it’s reasonable to suggest really, really bad bounces for that dude.

– Other guys who were siginifcantly below the team mean in terms of finishing: Tim Jackman (13.7%), Mikael Backlund (14.0%), Rene Bourque (13.7%), Olli Jokinen (13.2%) and Nik Hagman (13.6%).  

– On the other hand, some guys who enjoyed better than average finishing: Alex Tanguay (18.1%), Tom Kostopolous (18.8%), David Moss (18.5%) and Brendan Morrison (17.7%). Guys who were scored on at a greater than average rate were Kostopolous again (21%!!), Jokinen (18.4%) and Tanguay (18.9%). 

Now for the defenders:

The overall chance (51.8%) and goal (51.9%) ratios matched pretty closely for the defenders, but there was some wild fluctuations between individuals.

– The second unluckiest guy on the back-end in terms of finishing was Bouwmeester with 13.5%, which partially explains his crappy offensive totals.

– Whats more surprising is by the far unluckiest guy on the blueline (and perhaps amongst regular skaters) was Mark Giordano. His CF% was a team high 55.2% for defenders, but his G% was just 48.3%. His finish% was a team low 13.4% and the opposition scored on about 17.6% of their chances while he was on the ice. Imagine the season Gio would have had if the bounces hadn’t have gone against him.

– Babchuk is the polar opposite of Giordano. His chances% was meh (49.4%) but his g% was sky-high (55.7%), owing largely to a team best finish% (23.4% !!). That number was nearly 10% above the clubs average finish% for regular defenders, which is a big red flag (with "regression is imminent!" scrawled across it). In case you were tempted to claim his hard shot was the reason for the improved finish%, consider that #2 and #3 on the blueline by the same metric are Steve Staios (20.2%) and Adam Pardy (19.1%).

– Again, this is ES only.

– Keep in mind the "totals" for each table aren’t actually totals because each event isn’t discrete to each player. Many of Iginla’s chances for/against and goals for/against occured with Tanguay for example, etc. Flames actually generated 1081 individual scoring chances at ES in 79 games this past season, while allowing 1001. At 5on5, those numbers were 1044 and 946 respectively.

– Not all goals for or goals against were actually counted as chances (since flukes and random shots from the outside sometimes squeak through), so both f% and opp f% are somewhat inflated. It could be these sorts of goals that are skewing the results for the luckier/unluckier players to some degree as well.

– Some guys have been exlcuded for obvious reasons: Bouma, Nemisz, Mikkelson, Carson.