FlamesNation Mailbag: Easter Monday extravaganza

Hope you enjoy the day off, here’s a bunch of questions for you to ponder.

“Value” being a very loose term, but I would have to agree with Matthew Tkachuk. The kid has taken a major step forward without sacrificing anything that made him great last year. He was more of a passer than a shooter? Well now he can tip any shot in and has found success on the powerplay being right in front of the net. He had a knack for finding his way to the box? Well now he can draw more penalties without crossing the line to get himself sent off as well (compare: at 5v5, he had 33 penalties drawn and 25 taken through 76 games. This year, 34 drawn, 11 taken through 68 games). The scariest thing about Tkachuk is that he finished his season with a .975 PDO, sunk by a 6% on-ice shooting percentage. If Michael Frolik wasn’t snakebitten, he could’ve probably finished his season around a PPG.

Let’s consider others, too. I think Brett Kulak has at least looked like he’s worth a shot on the second pairing next year. I always thought he might top out as an okay second pairing guy when he hits the peak of his career (in like two-three years), but he seems to be a steady, calm presence that can be trusted with tougher minutes.

It’s Kulak!

Sure thing, pal.

They’re both not great! If you want the better of the two, it’s oddly enough Hathaway. I think he at least showed some more offensive flair than Lazar and has better shorthanded results (~11 shots per 60 fewer than Lazar). Perhaps he has an easier role than Lazar, but it’s not as if either is significantly buried. They are both sheltered players, one more so than the other.

The major difference is impact on teammates. Every player Lazar spends more than 100 5v5 minutes with performs better away from Lazar than with. That’s quite simply not true for Hathaway. While the impact isn’t major, Hathaway does provide a small boost to the performances of Mark Jankowski and Sam Bennett. He is at least capable of helping his teammates and being fine away from them. Lazar appears to be more influenced by his linemates’ play (which is concerning given who his linemates are!).

Basically, I think comparing the two is making a distinction without a difference. They’re both marginal players that you should probably seek to upgrade as soon as possible.

Nathan’s question just missed the cut for last week’s mailbag, which is a shame because it was so interesting to discuss.

Dougie shoots the puck nearly just as often as Brent Burns, which is one of the only other defencemen I can think of that successfully managed the transition between RD and RW. With a hell of a wrist shot, the willingness to use that wrist shot, a knack for goals, and a good possession game, I think it might be interesting to at least try it. What else are we going to use these last three games for? A silver lining to being an eliminated team with nothing much more to prove is that you get room to experiment. I know the Flames want to use the situation to see how prospects like Spencer Foo could handle the responsibility, but let’s be real: who has the higher offensive ceiling?

The problem is that you leave a big huge gap in your first pairing, and then you have to consider what’s really valuable. Perhaps moving Dougie out of the defence gives a shot to Rasmus Andersson, but no coach is actually going to stick a rookie defenceman on the top pairing. That bumps Travis Hamonic (alright) and Michael Stone (trash) up to higher responsibilities. Given what they could handle in reduced roles, who knows if it’s a great idea to give them expanded ones. The right-handed UFA market is also very weak this year, giving you no other options.

However, and this is just imagination running wild, what if you traded Stone, signed John Carlson (28 years old, strong puck distributor, will be expensive), and put Dougie at RW?

Here’s a quick rundown on every bottom six player to have played this year who is still team property (sorry, Freddie) and what I think will happen to them next season:

Shore is a really good bottom six forward. Throughout the various stops of his career, he’s also been on the plus side of 50 for CF% and always on the positive for CFrel%. He’s exactly what you want in a fourth liner.

I think Shore checks a lot of the boxes they want in bottom sixers: cheap, right-handed, steady, replaceable. They’ll definitely qualify him because they traded a non-conditional pick for him, but they’ll probably give him a small raise and one year. I can’t say get excited for him, as he plays one of the least exciting positions, but he will probably be a steady fan favourite next year.

As I said with Klimchuk, I think the Flames give him a shot just because they really haven’t ever done that. He’s looked promising the last two years, and can probably hack it as a two-way bottom sixer.

Hunter Shinkaruk has inexplicably crashed and burned after joining the Flames, so I think his career is DOA. It’s strange to see a guy go from NHL first line option to AHL third liner in two short years, but I guess it happens sometimes. Emile Poirier is another guy who hasn’t had much of a look, despite previous success at the higher level, but he hasn’t really earned one. He finally scored this weekend after a nearly two month-long dry streak. I think the Flames could give him another chance given his personal struggles, but I feel they will actually move on.

Others who will remained unqualified after this year: Austin Carroll, Hunter Smith. Adios.

Yes, only because the RW depth is so pathetic that he more or less has to be an option. The team doesn’t have much readily available, and Foo has certainly provided hope, becoming one of the Heat’s key offensive weapons down the stretch. He shoots the puck often, is unafraid to get in front of the net, and has speed and strength. He’s the mold of a good right winger, just not all together yet. I’m not sure how they’ll utilize him (third line sounds right for now), but I’ll go bold and say he’s going to start in Calgary next year.

Ehhhhhh. I’m bullish on that. I really want it to happen, but the Flames have kind of raided Stockton for all they’re worth so I feel he gets to go there first. I’m sure we’ll get a boatload of “injury” news coming in soon just so junior and AHL players can get a shot. If so, Dube is one of the first to get the call.

I don’t know. There’s not really anyone who is in the middle of the venn diagram of “worth more away from the team” and “valuable to other teams.”

I think Stone and T.J. Brodie are going to get moved first because they’re close to the middle in that venn diagram. Stone is taking up space for a better prospect and Brodie has been trending downwards for two years. I feel they want to get value while they still can, and given that they can clear up a minor bit of cap space to do so, it’s worth a look. I would probably move Stone out for whatever you can get for him. Brodie, I’d probably wait to see if you can get a sizeable return.

I feel Bennett is involved in trade speculation, but he’s on a pretty favourable contract so I doubt that happens. I think a second round pick is the going rate for reclamation projects anyways, which is perhaps less than many expect.

Evander Kane, no. From a hockey perspective, no. He’ll be way too expensive, and his rental period in San Jose will just keep driving up the cost. Off ice, he is garbage and not someone you want on your hockey team.

Sam Reinhart is a maybe. Who knows what Buffalo’s looking for, or if they event want to move him. He at least looks to be a steady ~.5 PPG player in upstate New York, and given the yearly uncertainty of the Sabres, I think they would want to keep him.

Of all three, Josh Ho-Sang is the most likely, but I’m still not convinced. He’s a bit of an ugly duckling: promising NHL play, but with very rough edges that keep him from being what he should be. His off-ice issues, no matter how blown up or exaggerated, are something that is going to matter to Flames management because they are like any other management team: cautious and willing to preserve a good locker room as a foundation of any team. A divorce looks imminent, which could drive costs low and give the Flames a window to buy, but I feel the Islanders want to preserve a young core and will accommodate if need be (and besides, does Brad Treliving want to deal with Garth Snow again?).