FlamesNation Mailbag: Lineup optimization

It’s probably been the best October for the Flames in years. Before I wrote about hockey two or three times a week, I would usually skip hockey until after Halloween as a rule of thumb. The Flames always started slow and weren’t worth watching ever. Why bother?

Thankfully, it’s been the opposite this year. The team has actually started the season like most teams do. The goaltending is excellent, the top two lines are in gear, and the outlook is good heading into the next month of hockey.

And yet, things could still be better! For all the good things that are happening, there are still a few bad ones. The third pairing (until Brett Kulak showed up) is a disaster. The bottom half of the roster has seven combined points, four of them belonging to Kris Versteeg (who is probably not a bottom sixer). The powerplay can’t score. For a team that looks as good as this one does, there are still so many problems with it.

So this week, we’re tackling the obvious yet always looming question: how can this roster be better?

I’m sure we’re all fed up with Troy Brouwer and Matt Bartkowski by now, but I think expecting management to do much about that desperate situation is setting the bar too high and too late.

Let’s start with Brouwer. There’s not much to do with him because there’s not a lot the team is able to do, from a management perspective. No one is going to trade for him after two seasons of struggles, and waiving him is probably going to make that more evident. You’re stuck with him.

Ideally, you sit him in the box and let some of the prospects play. If you took the high ground and forgave Brouwer for his poor 2016-17 performance, it’s hard to argue that he’s made the most of his second chance versus some of the kids on the Stockton roster who have been knocking on the door for quite some time. This also perhaps reduces any future trade interest, if it even exists, but it’s for the betterment of the team so it should probably happen.

Bartkowski is a different case now that Kulak has made that 6D spot his. He’s not harming anyone by sitting in the pressbox, so it would just be pointless to have him take AHL minutes away from someone while sitting a promising prospect in the NHL. There was barely a market for him before the Flames plucked him out of the AHL, and that was only for expansion draft purposes. Bart’s not going anywhere, and that’s fine by me.

However, all of that relies on Bart remaining in the press box. Glen Gulutzan has shown the willingness to put him in games and give him some decent minutes. Perhaps you can make the argument that the Flames should send him to California and call up Tyler Wotherspoon, a kid who could be a decent depth option. If Glen is tempted to sub out Kulak or any other defenceman, it couldn’t hurt to put in one that won’t make you groan for 60 minutes.

Sure, the team can’t really do anything about these two players. But unlike years previous (coughWidemancough), these two moves were committed by the current management team. These are their mistakes, and the warning signs were plentiful. The tar and pitchforks should’ve come out when these moves were made, not after.

I already address the first two, but left Garnet Hathaway uncovered. Here’s why.

Hrivik, in a very small sample, is likely to be a quality fourth liner if he gets NHL time. Mangiapane, although an unknown quantity, has been dominant in the AHL at 21, which probably warrants an NHL look sooner rather than later.

With Hathaway, we have a pretty good idea of what he is at the NHL level. Since joining the team, he’s been right-handed Lance Bouma. Their underlying results are eerily similar, as are the narratives attached to them. Hathaway is not going to be the scoring presence he is in the AHL, but will just be a guy on ice who throws hits and occasionally has a good forecheck.

He may look better in the AHL than he was last year (which is an effect of being 26 years old, a four-year veteran, playing with two kids who should have NHL jobs, and shooting 30%), but don’t be fooled. At the NHL level, he’s a replaceable energy guy. The Flames can do better without him in the lineup.

Travis Hamonic is more than likely recovering from his injury-plagued final year on Long Island.

He’s noticeably improved from his really bad 2016-17 campaign, where he was one of the worst defenders in the league. His CF/60 and CA/60 have both improved (50.28 -> 58.87, 64.33 -> 59.98, respectively) and are around his normal career numbers. All he needs to do is move the needle just a little bit into the black, and we should have normal Hamonic.

(Of course, getting injured again may not help this.)

You’d have to think Matty Phillips. The kid has played two full WHL seasons, finished both above a point per game, and is well on his way to finishing his third in similar fashion (he’s pretty close to two points per game, as of this writing). If he was just a few inches taller, he would be a first round draft pick. The kid is good and will probably make a strong case for the big team by next season (provided they get him under ELC, which still hasn’t happened, somehow).

Outside of Phillips, Tyler Parsons’ OHL and WJC results suggest that he could potentially be an elite goalie, although early struggles in the ECHL may simmer some expectations.

Lower than you think.

By now, the book is out on Sam Bennett. I can’t read minds, but I feel most GMs won’t want to take him on unless the cost was low. Even if Brad Treliving was shopping him, opposing GMs would have the balance of power. Even a GM that believes Bennett will live up to his potential one day probably knows they can get a cut-rate price for him because of his actual results. I feel that Treliving is also smart enough to hold back selling on Bennett until it becomes absolutely clear that the value he receives back in a potential trade is a fair given Bennett’s value.

If there’s a market, I feel he’s going to be a la Wayne Simmonds in L.A.: underachieving player who looked to be going backwards thrown in as the sweetener in a superstar deal. Of course, you would have to live what Simmonds became after the fact.

The Flames have a mostly full lineup right now, but let’s take a look at the possibilities.

James Neal is looking great so far in Vegas, but we can almost immediately rule him out due to his major cap hit of $5M. Even at half retained, the Flames would be ~$500K over the cap. That would require money being sent back Vegas’ way (speaking of – didn’t they just lose a $4.5M a year forward?), but also high-end draft picks. The Flames have very few of those.

I can see Jonathan Marchessault being a legit target, though. His cap hit, a steal at $750K, isn’t going to hamper the Flames at all, and he’s likely to be equally as effective as Neal. Perhaps I have a soft spot for him, but he’s a player who can immediately step in and help the team, at centre and on the right wing.

However, I don’t think the Flames are looking for trades until deadline. For now, they’re willing to roll with the punches of the early season and see what they need later. Not having anything to trade kind of ties their hands, too.

Yes you should.

No.

There’s been a temptation to break up the one consistently good line and spread scoring out, but that seems counterproductive. You’d be breaking up one of the Flames’ best units and hoping that the part is greater than the sum of the whole. There’s been the long standing belief that putting whoever on Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik’s wing will work (notable examples: Bouma, Joe Colborne), but the real truth is that Matthew Tkachuk makes that line complete. Moving one of those guys away is more likely to weaken the good line than to make the others that much better.

Not only is the 3M line one of the best lines assembled in the NHL, but the other lines haven’t been that bad, either. The first line has been lights out recently with Micheal Ferland on the wing, and we’ll see how long that lasts. Given that they’re a 58.51 CF% line, I think they’ll be fine. The Bennett-Jankowski-Lazar line is heavily sheltered and plays low event hockey (between five to six CF/60 events lower than the top two lines), but remains in the black with regards to shot attempts. They’ll probably figure something out soon.

Also, Jagr could be coming back as early as Tuesday. That’s a scoring boost for whatever line he’s put on.

No.