FN Mailbag – Aug 27, 2015

In the wake of the CalgaryNext and Giordano contract announcements, we decided to rouse the FN mailbag feature from its off-season hibernation.

Ironically, nobody asked any questions about the arena project, so most of today’s inquires tackle Calgary’s blueline and contract situation moving forward.

When I started looking around at the other elite defenders who had signed long-term deals recently, my assumption heading into the Gio negotiations was that he and his agent would want north of $40M total, whatever the AAV and term. Turns out that was fairly valid assumption.

As mentioned above, having a shorter term would have been preferable in terms of limiting future risk given Giordano’s age, but it was nearly impossible for the Flames to do that given their pending cap crunch since $40 over four years gives you a cap hit of $10M per year. Treliving, I think, found the best possible compromise by getting the AAV under 7M while keeping the contract length under 7 years as well.

There’s some speculation that Gio’s $6.75M cap hit will become a de facto “upper ceiling” for other players, kinda like no one was ever going to get paid more per year than Iginla while Iginla was still on the team. The point is likely moot because the team simply doesn’t have anyone who would be in line for that kind of raise any time soon. While Gaudreau and Monahan might be in the $6M range (assuming another good season for each), it will take a sizable leap for either of them to get into Giordano/Tarasenko price range.

The only other option is a big UFA signing, but players of that caliber almost never make it into the UFA pool these days anyways.

The Flames had the second highest even strength shooting percentage last year (8.8%), behind only the Tampa Bay Lightning. That was caused by half the roster having career years, ranging from the top end (Hudler and Wideman) to the bottom end (Bouma and Jooris). 

I think (hope) the Flames will get a higher volume of shots this upcoming season, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see their goal rate come back down to earth. Unless Sam Bennett is suddenly a superstar, it’s almost certain the Flames will score less frequently in 2015-16. 

Smid says he feels well enough to play, but requires a doctor’s say-so to get back into NHL action. If he is indeed ready to go in October, the Flames brass will have not one but two replacement level defenders with overly expensive contracts to try to get rid of in the next 12 months. 

Smid has been a warrior for a long time and was once a capable enough top-4 defensive defenseman. That player has been left behind, however. Here’s Smid’s results from the last three seasons courtesy of Own the Puck: 

An absolute horror show. 

Smid has zero offense to speak of and he craters the possession of any one he plays with. It’s great news on a human level that Smid is feeling well enough to get back on the ice again, but it complicates Brad Treliving’s life a great deal. 

It also makes it a lot less likely the team will ink David Schlemko as a depth option, whose HERO chart, I remind you, looks like this: 

Sigh.

I’m ambivalent about Klimchuk. His production in junior was just okay and he’s not particularly gifted in any one area of the game. He’s not very big or physical, nor is he overly fast or agile. He’s not going to dangle around the other team or thread passes through skates on a regular basis.

Seeing Klimchuk live a few times I have been impressed with the way his thinks and anticipates the game. But it was also clear he’s not going to jump the queue and make the league any time soon. He has to get either stronger and more assertive, or quicker and more evasive in order to separate himself from the pack. At 6′, 190 pounds, he’s not going to make the league as a bang and crasher, and I’m not sure he has enough offensive upside to be a scorer either.

That’s a long way of saying he kind of reminds me of Max Reinhart: A ‘good’ prospect who will need some aspect of his game to take a substantial leap as a pro in order to be considered an important prospect.