Rittich comes out on top in midseason review of goals against Calgary

Calgary’s 2018-19 starting goaltending issue that persisted for what felt like forever has definitely sorted itself out. Onward from about 32 games into the season, David Rittich has taken the reigns as the Flames’ de facto number one goalie.

As the Flames enjoy their rest before closing out the season and ideally a deep playoff run, now was a good time to revisit a previous data visualisation on Calgary’s goaltenders that I made earlier in the season. 

Back then, after 18 games played, the Flames had given up 56 goals against. Now at nearly triple the games later, they’ve tightened up their goals against and are sitting at a comfortable 145, good for 12th lowest in the league. They’ll have to give up 23 goals in their next three games to match their 18-game pace.

So how have Rittich and Mike Smith been in net for the Flames? Rittich has played 30 games (27 starts) compared to Smith’s 25 (24 starts). Yet, with three extra starts, Rittich’s still given up fewer goals than his counterpart.

With 145 total goals against, there’s definitely enough goals to compare the goalies with. The visualisation breaks down the how goals have been scored on the Flames’ goaltending tandem and tells the season story. Goals are broken up by situation, as well as danger (when applicable) as determined by Natural Stat Trick.

As previously mentioned, Rittich’s given up fewer goals than Smith, despite playing more games. They’re actually fairly close in terms of goals allowed, so the breakdown immediately shows what types of shots beat which goaltender more often.

At even strength and on the penalty kill, Rittich tends to give up more low-danger goals than Smith does; however, the inverse is true for high-danger shots. Smith gives up the bulk of high-danger goals and this has been true for much of the season. Rittich has excelled in terms of making high-danger saves and has earned a good reputation for doing so.

A total of 34 power play goals have been scored on the Flames’ 21st-ranked penalty kill. Despite Smith being better at low- and medium-danger shots, most shots on a power play tend to be higher danger, and Rittich undoubtedly has that locked down. His high-danger SV% on the penalty kill is better than Smith’s overall penalty kill SV%. That goes to show that Rittich’s been a big factor in preventing a lot of power play goals against.

At even strength, the Flames have allowed 100 goals. While Rittich has given up more low-danger goals, his SV% isn’t too far from Smith’s. Both goalies are actually below league average, but stopping low-danger shots at a 95%+ efficiency isn’t going to cause much disdain.

The larger difference between the goalies is their medium- and high-danger performances. Rittich has been far better. Even with more playing time, Rittich has Smith beat in both SV% as well as total goals allowed in those situations.

Last time I made the visualisation, Smith had given up one low- and one medium-danger shorthanded goal. Now Rittich has given up two shorthanded goals of his own, but both of them were high-danger. However, giving up just four shorthanded goals against has the Flames right in the middle of league; they’re tied at 10th lowest shorthanded goals against with six other teams.

Smith gave up one penalty shot goal to Andreas Athanasiou when they were in Detroit. The Flames have given up four empty net goals trying to mount a comeback, and two goals against were credited courtesy of their two shootout losses to Washington and Tampa Bay.

It’s pretty clear now more than ever that Rittich has put together one of the best seasons for any Flames goaltender in recent memory. In fact, he might even be considered for the Vezina Trophy come June. The visualisation definitively shows that he’s been better than Smith, but he’s actually been much better than the majority of NHL goaltenders.

The Flames have comfort knowing Rittich is backstopping them to victory more often than not, and they’ll look to make a big splash to end the season. Wherever they end up in the standings and postseason, one thing is certain: we all owe Big Save Dave a big massive jumping hug.