Reasonable Expectations: Sean Monahan

Last year, I took a stab at setting “reasonable”
expectations for Sven Baertschi
and absolutely nailed it… not.

So naturally, I’m the one who will attempt to attach
expectations to the most unpredictable player set to suit up in the Flaming C
this October.

Last year Sean Monahan did what very few have done, and even
fewer expected him to do: score 20 goals as a 19 year old rookie. Since 2000,
there have been just 12 players to score more than 22 goals in a season as a 19
year old, and only 6 of them did so as rookies rookies.

Here are the 6:

*Estimated based off of SH% in Lockout Shortened Season

The company Sean Monahan finds himself in is very
impressive. Outside of Peter Mueller, every player on that list is a cornerstone
for their respective franchise. Looking at the list, we see almost every player
improved on their rookie totals during their sophomore campaigns as well, again
with the exception of Peter Mueller. Gabriel Landeskog’s numbers are estimates
and somewhat skewed by virtue of playing the lockout shortened season, but even
he appeared to be on course to eclipse his rookie campaign goal total.

While we shouldn’t expect a Stamkos-like improvement
(Stamkos went from 23 to 51 from his rookie to sophomore campaign) this season
out of Monahan, superficial evidence at this point would suggest he’ll improve
on his 22 goals in 2014/15.

However, here at FlamesNation, superficial evidence isn’t
enough to satisfy us. So let’s take a deeper look at each of Monahan’s six best
comparables.

 

Quite a group indeed. Aside from Peter Mueller, that is. I’m
sure Flames fans would be rather ecstatic with Monahan ending up a similar
calibre player as the skaters on that list. Again, aside from Peter Mueller.

I elected to stay away from the advanced metrics game when
compiling these comparables because for a rookie player, I feel
Corsi & Friends™ have very little to offer in terms of analyzing how that specific
player’s rookie campaign actually went. The stats in a rookie’s first season
become flawed by things such as the transitional period they go through at the
beginning of their careers, where their acclimation to the NHL game yields
generally horrendous fancy stat results.

Sean Monahan was criticized for facing some of the easiest
competition on the team yet still getting buried in the possession game. I
would attribute that to stretches of poor play – such as that period after he
returned from injury – that hampered his overall statistical showing. Having
said that, Sean Monahan was never a dominant possession player last year and
having meandered through the advanced metrics of each member of the list, they
all put up similar number, and naturally faced really easy competition.
Throwing a baby-faced skilled rookie to the wolves is a one-way ticket to
Bustville, with stops in Headache Town and the Kris Chucko
Memorial Museum.

Point being, I didn’t feel advanced stats to be prudent in
this situation, and instead stuck with more “meat and potatoes” metrics
to find suitable comparables for the most-loved young player in this town since
Sven Baertschi (although Johnny Hockey could make an argument out of that
statement). (Editor’s Note: We call ourselves Mono-Fans.) Some may disagree with me and throw out big words and fancy math to
prove me wrong on the advanced stat front, but that’s just my opinion on the
matter.

So, back to the chart. Some of you may have noticed right
away there is one player who’s rookie stats seem eerily close to those of
Monahan’s. That being Jonathan Toews. Their goal totals are just two apart
(although Toews played 11 less games) and their shot and SH%’s are very close
as well. Toews too had an inflated SH% in rookie season and unlike most would
expect, did not regress, in fact posted an even higher SH% the following year.
These weren’t anomalies either, as Toews comes into the 2014/15 season with a
career 15.1 SH%. Some players just happen to convert more on their chances than
others. It can’t always be attributed to “luck”. What’s to say
Monahan can’t be of a similar make?

However, before we get all excited about having the next
Jonathan Toews in our lineup, you’ll notice no else really boasts those kinds
of stats. Every shooting percentage is more modest and hangs around the league
average SH% which, depending on the year, is around 9.0-10.0%. Is Toews is the
real anomaly here? Maybe. Only time will tell if Monahan will continue down the
path forged by Hawks captain, but right now it’s just a fun coincidence to
speculate with.

The good news is though, with the exception of good ol’ Pete
Mueller, everyone on that list increased their production from one year to the
next, and did it, for the most part, on rather poor teams. They also all shot more and thus buried more. After all, if you can score 20
plus goals as a rookie, there’s nothing that should stop you from doing it
again. At least you’d think so.

Peter Mueller is the one aberration to that theory. One
would think Sean Monahan should absolutely improve on his 22 goal season because
everyone else did, except for Mueller. So, why Mueller? My theory is simple.
Peter Mueller scored goals by way of skill rather than hockey sense and hard
work. He danced around people and dangled. It was all fine and good in his
rookie year, but come his second season in the show, defences started to zero
in on him, he hadn’t the skill level to answer them and keep up his pace. He
didn’t have an alternative source of goal scoring – he was never a
“drive-the-net” and grind for rebounds kind of guy – and was thus
left a shell of his former self. While the Patrick Kanes and John Tavares’
possessed the skill set to overcome the extra attention and continued their
success, Peter Mueller flamed out.

Sean Monahan didn’t score goals by way of overwhelming skill.
He did it by primarily relying on his hockey IQ and instincts – being in the
right place at the right time. Sure he has an abundant offensive arsenal, but
it’s headed by his head. And intuition is not something easily defended against.

So having said all that, what can we reasonably expect from
the second year saviour, *cough*, centerman? Well, it would be more than fair to
expect a bump up in shots, to somewhere in the 200 realm. Monahan shot
considerably less than most players on the list, but did miss time, so with a
full 82 game schedule ahead of him, an increase in shots should be expected.

His goal output, after much analysis, I will forecast will
increase, if just slightly. He won’t put up 30, but I think the fashion in which
he scores goals allows for sustainability because rebounds and broken plays
will never stop occurring, and if Monahan can get himself in those areas ready
to release, he should visit the back of the net again at a similar clip consistently.
For those eagerly awaiting his SH% to plummet, I wouldn’t hold my breath, for
Monahan strikes me as the type of player who will sustain an inflated
percentage throughout his career. That’s just the way he plays. His shots come
from high percentage areas around the net, and doesn’t take those leg flick
wristers from the top of the circle that kill SH%, with regularity. Now that
I’ve said that, watch him be cursed and shoot 3.0% next year.

I didn’t bother cooking up comparables to Monahan’s assist
production because that, like GAA for goaltenders, depends so much on the team
you’re playing on and the quality of your linemates. Short of the Sedins, who
can turn Anson Carter into a 30 goal scorer, assist production will vary on who
your setting up with passes. Sean Monahan would’ve doubled his assist total if
he was dishing to Alex Ovechkin or Steven Stamkos, but Joe Colborne just isn’t
quite the same trigger to be feeding. Having said that, 12 is a pretty low
number of apples, even with the linemates he had, so I expect an increased role
this year will come with more quality linemates and in turn an increased helper
amount. Using official methods and totally legit estimation algorithms, I’ll forecast
Monahan’s name will be scribbled down as one of the assists on 20 goals this
year.

So, amalgamating everything together, we’ll put our rough
estimate of Monahan’s statistical season next year at 25 goals and 20 assists
with 200 shots and a more “acceptable” 12.5 SH%. I’d peg this as the
optimistic expectation, with anything under 20 goals and 15 assists being
considered a disappointing campaign.

The main theme of Monahan’s 2014/15 season should be
improvement. It’s impetrative he continues to progress and evolve into a better
player in every facet of the game. Say what you want about how Monahan will
regress or whatnot, but any such regression, whether it be on the stat sheet or
otherwise, must be viewed in a negative light and be considered disappointing.
I understand he set himself a high bar this season, but that’s what star
players do. And they continue to raise that bar until they reach extraordinary
heights. If Monahan should continue to be regarded as a budding star, he must adhere
to circumstances of that ilk, and continue to raise that bar.

Improvement, no matter how small, is what should be
reasonably expected out of Sean Monahan, next season.