WWYD Wednesday: Break up the 3M Line?
By Kent Wilson
7 years agoIt’s no secret that the forward unit of Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik and Matthew Tkachuk has been the most consistent for the team all year. The “3M” line has been together for majority of the season so far and combined they own the team’s best results at even strength by a wide margin.
So why consider breaking them up? Simply, to spread the wealth. While the Backlund line continues to put up above average shot rates at 5on5, every other regular forward unit on the team has mostly been drowning. While having three potent play drivers on one line makes for a highly effective single unit, it also means the rest of the team struggles to get out of their own end on many nights.
And for Glen Gulutzan only being able to rely on a third of your top nine rotation to outshoot or outchance the opposition is a tough way to win hockey games over the long run.
The Forward Line Comparison
Let’s first put some numbers to what I’m talking about here. I used Puckalytics’ Super WOWY tool to look at the four more consistent line combos over the last few weeks. The table includes each line’s corsi for (CF%) ratio and offensive zone start (ZONE%) ratio.
| Line | CF% | Ozone% |
|---|---|---|
| Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik | 57.1 | 36% |
| Gaudreau-Bennett-Chiasson | 43.8 | 64% |
| Versteeg-Monahan-Brouwer | 40.2 | 57% |
| Ferland-Stajan-Hathaway | 47.2 | 27% |
The divide between the 3M line and everyone else – particularly the other two “top nine” units – is glaring.
Backlund’s unit gets buried at even strength but still owns over 57% of all shot attempts at even strength. The Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett units, however, are getting the high ground and still struggling from a shots perspective. The Matt Stajan line does as well as can be expected given their circumstances (almost no offensive zone draws and a rotating cast of wingers on the right side).
While a group can survive for a time while ceding nearly 60% of the shots at even strength (thanks to hot shooting or great goaltending), eventually they will be overrun by sheer volume of shots and chances against.
So you see the problem here. Gulutzan is overly reliant on the Backlund line to eat hard minutes at the top of the rotation. This might be okay if at least one of the Bennett or Monahan line was taking advantage of the high ground, but they’re not – quite the opposite in fact.
The extreme divide between the circumstances and results of the 3M trio and everyone else in the Flames top nine almost demands a re-shuffling of the deck.
The Options
So what can be done? If you break up the 3M line, you risk destroying the best forward unit the team has without any guarantee of improvements elsewhere. On the other hand, sticking with the status quo risks watching Monahan, Bennett and Johnny Gaudreau struggle to break out of their zone most nights for the rest of the season.
There are a few options:
1.) Keep 3M together, experiment with other combinations
Troy Brouwer being out for some time should spur Gulutzan to test other forward combos, which will include moving Micheal Ferland up the rotation. Like Backlund and crew, Ferland has been one of the team’s best play drivers this year, so he might help move the needle.
2.) Keep Backlund and Frolik together and move Tkachuk
We know from experience that the duo of Backlund and Frolik can keep their heads above water with just about any line mate (*cough* Joe Colborne *cough*), so Gulutzan could continue to have a capable shutdown trio even if he moved Tkachuk to help another unit.
Something like this could be the result:
- Tkachuk – Monahan – Versteeg
- Ferland – Backlund – Frolik
- Gaudreau – Bennett – Brouwer/Chiasson
3.) Keep Tkachuk with Backlund and move Frolik
This seems almost unnatural since Backlund and Frolik have been partnered for so long, but it’s certainly an option (if Gaudreau and Monahan can be broken up, anyone can).
Tkachuk can stick with Backlund, but Frolik can be moved to try to help another unit. The good news here is Frolik shoots left so he can play either side.
- Frolik – Monahan – Versteeg
- Gaudreau – Bennett – Ferland/Chiasson
- Tkachuk – Backlund – Ferland/Chiasson
- Bouma – Stajan – Hathaway/Brouwer
4.) Move both Frolik and Tkachuk
Of course, if you want to spread the wealth around maybe moving both Frolik and Tkachuk away from Backlund is the best choice.
- Tkachuk – Monahan – Versteeg
- Gaudreau – Bennett – Frolik
- Ferland – Backlund – Chiasson/Brouwer
- Bouma – Stajan – Hathaway/Brouwer
In this configuration, you have puck distributors and play drivers on each of the top two lines and a clear shutdown unit centered by Backlund. The fourth line becomes a bit of a question mark and you probably won’t get much offense out of the third line, but perhaps the top six improves enough for this not to be a problem.
So what’s your preference FlamesNation? Keep the 3M line together and pray for something else to emerge? Or see if they can balance things out a bit by bumping Tkachuk or Frolik (or both) to other units?
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