The Calgary Flames have come up short of the playoffs for the past three seasons, and it is to the point in the season where fans are becoming more and more resigned to the belief that this season might not be any different.

Although morale might be low, it is not impossible. The Flames currently stand at just over a 5 per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to odds-makers. What does this mean exactly?

The Flames are currently sitting eighth in the wild card race, 14th in the Western Conference and battling for last place in the entire league. Meaning, they would have to fight their way through a 13 point deficit before the last regulation game on Apr. 16 to secure a wild card spot.

The team currently has 21 games left in the regular season so in theory, they could gain up to 42 more points if they win every single game they have left. Is this likely going to happen? Probably not. But they still have an opportunity to make up these 13 points if some crucial scenarios play out.

The first scenario would be to simply make up the remaining points. If they win 11 of their games, they would come away with 22 points. Realistically, they would need over 30 points to ensure they claim their spot. Meaning they would have to either win 15 or more games, and take at least two of the remaining games into overtime.

The second scenario is 15 wins and six overtime games. This would bring the team up to 37 points, which would be more than enough points to secure a spot.

The most feasible scenario would be 11 regulation wins and 10 overtime games. This would bring the Flames up to 32 points.

Now these stats might seem achievable, but we have to look at it from a bigger picture, taking into account every other team that is also in this same battle. Realistically, the Flames coming away with a wild card spot would require them to obtain around 39 more points.

If they do not gain these points, they would be relying on the downfall of the other teams in the race (the Chicago Blackhawks, Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, Utah Mammoth and Seattle Kraken) who would have to lose most, if not all of their remaining games or, at the very least, bring them into overtime.

Now this might seem impossible, most would say it is. But the odds say that the Flames still have a 5.26 per cent chance of exceeding everyone’s expectations.

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