Gang, the running joke in hockey circles is “How does this affect the Maple Leafs?” – people love talking about Toronto, it seems. Well, when it comes to Sunday night’s Game 7 between the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs, the result of the game, and the series, will impact where the Calgary Flames select in the first round of the 2025 NHL Draft.

Let us explain why.

First off, the Panthers owe the Flames a draft selection as part of the July 2022 trade that sent Matthew Tkachuk to Florida and Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary. We don’t need to get into the various complex trade conditions – several picks involved in the trade directly or indirectly had top 10 protection, which led to cascading conditions – but the gist of it is that the Flames will send their 2025 fourth-rounder to the Panthers and receive their 2025 first-rounder in return.

The complexities for the Flames related to the draft order stem from how the draft order is determined.

We’ve discussed this before, but here’s roughly how the order of selection in each round of the NHL Draft is decided: Everything is meant to go in reverse standings order, with the worst teams from last season getting the most help via the draft. The first 16 picks went to the non-playoff teams, then the remaining picks are decided primarily based on how far a team goes in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Picks 17 to 28 are given to the teams that are eliminated in the first two rounds, with the division winners getting the later spots, since they had better regular seasons. Picks 29 & 30 are for the teams that lose in the conference finals, pick 31 is for the Cup Final loser, and pick 32 is for the Cup Final winner.

The Panthers finished the regular season with 98 points – two more than the Flames – and had the sixth-worst record of the 16 teams that qualified for the playoffs. Since they didn’t win their division, if they are eliminated in the first two rounds, they would be allocated 22nd overall based on their regular season performance. That pick would transfer to the Flames to complete the Tkachuk trade.

However, if the Panthers manage to advance to the conference final round, then their pick would slide into the later part of the first round – somewhere between 29th and 32nd overall, depending on how far they go – and the Flames would still receive Florida’s first-round pick, but the placement of that pick would be decidedly different than if the Panthers lost to the Maple Leafs in round two.

We know that a lot of fans have complicated feelings about the Maple Leafs – the Flames and Leafs have a complicated, messy history. We know there’s a contingent of Flames fans that dislike them almost as much as they do the Edmonton Oilers. But if you’re cheering for results that maximize the Flames’ draft opportunities, your only choice for Sunday’s Game 7 is to swallow your pride and cheer for the Leafs.

The 2025 NHL Draft takes place June 27 & 28 in Los Angeles.