Hold onto your hats, friends, because we’re going to make some controversial statements.
First and foremost, the Calgary Flames aren’t a team that generates a ton of scoring. (Shocking, we know.) Following Saturday night’s 1-0 victory over the Montreal Canadiens, the Flames have scored 164 goals. That’s tied for Nashville, who have played one fewer game than the Flames, for last in the NHL.
Secondly, Flames rookie Dustin Wolf is having a heck of a freshman NHL season. Following Saturday’s win, his third shutout of the season, he leads all NHL rookie netminders in pretty much everything:
- His 22 wins is nine more than Nashville’s Justus Annunen (13).
- His 2.52 goals against average is bettered only by a handful of goalies – Los Angles’ Erik Portillo, Ottawa’s Leevi Merilainen, Utah’s Jaxson Stauber and Montreal’s Jakub Dobes – who combined have played about 700 fewer minutes than Wolf.
- His .915 save percentage is bettered, again, only by Portillo, Merilainen and Stauber.
- His three shutouts tie Merilainen for the rookie lead.
When the NHL announces its awards in June, we would be shocked if Wolf isn’t named the goaltender for the All-Rookie Team.
When it comes to Wolf’s Calder Trophy bonafides, while it’s difficult to compare skater performances to a goaltender’s, the best argument for Wolf’s contention probably lies in where the Flames would be without him.
Through Saturday’s game, Natural Stat Trick’s figures suggest that Wolf has saved 17.8 goals above expected at five-on-five and 14.0 above expected in all situations. That performance places him third in the NHL at five-on-five and 12th in all situations. His save percentage is .935 at five-on-five (second in the NHL among goalies with 30+ appearances) and .915 in all situations (fourth in the NHL among goalies with 30+ appearances).
To put it bluntly: Wolf isn’t just a good rookie goaltender. He’s one of the NHL’s better-performing netminders, period.
Because the Flames are a low-scoring team, they play in a lot of close games. Through Saturday’s action, only Utah had played as many minutes with the score within one goal than the Flames. Wolf boasts a .941 five-on-five save percentage and .922 overall save percentage when a game’s score is within one goal – he’s second in the NHL in five-on-five and third overall among goalies with 30+ appearances.) In fact, 24 of Wolf’s 38 appearances have been in games decided by a single goal, including those that were one-goal games inflated by empty-netters: Wolf is 17-3-4 in those close games.
If Wolf a good rookie? Absolutely. Is Wolf a good goalie? Absolutely. But because of how many close games the Flames are playing in, and how superb Wolf has been in close games, we’re not sure that there’s a rookie that’s more valuable to his team this season than Wolf is to the Flames.
With 19 games to go, and the playoffs in sight, we’ll see how many more victories in close games Wolf can earn for the Flames before his freshman season reaches its conclusion.
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