Five down, one to go. We’ve just about reached the end of our pre-prospect rankings miniseries here at FlamesNation, and what fun it’s been to travel across the distant reaches of the Calgary Flames’ galaxy of young players in anticipation of our main list starting to be revealed on Thursday.

After covering the fascinating career of undrafted college signing Sam Morton earlier today, it’s time to take a look at a player who has followed a much more conventional route to reach this point in his development — albeit with some speed bumps in his path along the way — and is primed to take on a larger role with the Calgary Wranglers as he enters the final year of his entry-level contract.

There’s no way a player with Rory Kerins’ skillset and track record would have fallen outside our top 20 in previous years. Case in point: Kerins himself ranked No. 14 on our list in 2023, No. 18 in 2021, and a stunning No. 6 overall in 2022 after a 118-point OHL season with the Soo Greyhounds.

But here he is now, just narrowly missing out on the final spot on our list despite coming off a solid AHL rookie season with the Wranglers in 2023-24 — although, in truth, Kerins’ placement had less to do with his performance last year and more to do with the other, better prospects the Flames have brought in over the last 12 months. Now that Zayne Parekh, Matvei Gridin, Andrew Basha, Hunter Brzustewicz, and Artem Grushnikov are here, it’s going to become a lot more difficult for late-round picks like Kerins to climb in the rankings without truly spectacular production.

Kerins finished in a tie with Mitch McLain for third on the Wranglers with 16 goals last season. His 32 points ranked sixth. But the Caledon, Ontario product struggled with consistency for much of the year, particularly away from the puck, and was occasionally made a healthy scratch. After scoring 11 goals and 24 points in his first 29 games of the 2023-24 season, Kerins managed just eight points in 23 games after the calendar flipped to February and was held out of all but one of the Wranglers’ six games in the 2024 Calder Cup Playoffs.

Part of that may have been due to Kerins’ lack of size, which he has henceforth been unable to overcome to the same degree of success at the AHL level as the likes of Jakob Pelletier and Matthew Phillips before him. He’s seldom played his natural centre position with the Wranglers, typically occupying the left flank at 5-on-5 and earning semi-regular reps on the power play, where he’s best suited to use his impressive shot and playmaking abilities.

Kerins’ biggest task this year will be to lock down a spot on one of the Wranglers’ top two forward lines. He’ll need to become a player who Trent Cull and Co. can trust on a nightly basis, and that means playing with energy in all three zones and producing more consistently. Kerins will likely never be a defensive stalwart at any level, but he should still be able to add more dimensions to his game.

As FlamesNation managing editor Ryan Pike opined a few months ago, Kerins still hasn’t been able to find a niche as a pro. After being relegated to the ECHL in the 2022-23 season, his first full AHL campaign progressed in near-inverse fashion to that of, say, William Strömgren, who only got better as the year went along. Now, Strömgren is one of the players who could block Kerins from potentially taking on an increased role with the Wranglers next season.

If Kerins projects to play centre in 2024-25, it’s hard to envision the Wranglers’ coaching staff favouring him over the likes of Morton, Justin Kirkland, or Clark Bishop. His odds of advancing up the lineup figure to be better on the wing, although he’ll probably still be behind Strömgren and maybe Sam Honzek. And with the new talent in the Flames organization expected to arrive in the AHL in the next few years, Kerins could find himself pushed even more to the side if he doesn’t take the necessary steps forward.

This is hardly the end of the road for Kerins, who has a lot going for him. He’s a skilled offensive forward with good instincts and a terrific shot. But this could absolutely end up being a make-or-break year for a player whose future in the Flames organization beyond the 2024-25 season remains uncertain. Everything is on the line for Kerins this season, and it’s all up to him to change the narrative.