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HOW GOOD IS JOHNNY GAUDREAU?
By Byron Bader
Feb 10, 2014, 17:02 ESTUpdated: Feb 8, 2014, 21:35 EST
-via D. Mahoney
John Gaudreau, drafted in the 4th round by the Calgary Flames in 2011, has been a staple in any optimistic discussions revolving around the Flames over the past few years. Thus far, in his college career, Gaudreau has been nothing short of amazing. He put up nearly 1.5 points per game in his sophomore year and is racking up 2 points per game this year, his 3rd year with Boston College. Gaudreau’s current 2 ppg translates to a 67 NHLE and he is currently riding a 23-game point streak (he’s got 48 points during that streak). Johnny clearly looks to be a special player, but just how special is he?
THE NUMBERS
Johnny Gaudreau and his draft class:
This is every forward selected in the first four rounds of the 2011 draft. The table includes the player, the team that drafted them, the round, the player’s NHLE the year they were drafted, the player’s NHLE today and the difference in NHLE between this year and 2011. The * indicates players currently playing in the NHL.
Notable 1st rounders from that year include Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Strome, Mika Zibanejad, Mark Scheifele, Sean Couturier and Sven Baertschi. Ty Rattie, Boone Jenner and Brandan Saad were also taken that year in later rounds and that’s about it for highly recognizable names.
Gaudreau was the 61st forward drafted in 2011. His 25 NHLE in his draft year was nothing remarkable (i.e., not high-first round calibre). But his NHLE was a lot higher than a lot of the players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If Gaudreau was a tall player, or even average height, he probably would have gone at the end of the 1st round or in the 2nd round.
Today, Gaudreau, with a 67 NHLE this year and a +42 difference from his draft year to this year, is clearly the winning forward selection of his round (the 4th). He looks to be the clear winner of the 2nd and the 3rd also as there is no one close to his 2013-14 NHLE or NHLE difference. And even the 1st round, Gaudreau, although not in NHL yet, is scoring at a comparable clip to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Gabe Landeskog, two very good players that are in their third seasons in the NHL.
The closest to matching Johnny’s differential NHLE is Landeskog at +38. However, Gaudreau is still 4vbetter than Landeskog. For perspective, the average difference between 2010-11 NHLE and 2013-14 of all the players selected in the first four rounds (not including Gaudreau) is less than 2 points Gaudreau’s differential is a cool 21 points better than the average player in the draft. If nothing else, he’s certainly the most improved player of that particular year.
Additionally, Gaudreau’s 67 NHLE is by far the highest NHLE of any player currently set to turn pro. Only three players have entered the league since the 2005 lockout with a NHLE over 60 the year before entering: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane. Gaudreau is two years older than any of these players as they all made the jump at 18 or 19, but Johnny is still realtively young (20 years of age).
Rarified Air
One thing that struck me was how few people have a NHLE in the 60s and how these players eventually tend to score substantially higher than their NHLE. This suggests that once you get to this point, you’re scoring so much (e.g., ~2.5 points per game in the CHL and ~1.8 points per game in the NCAA) that you probably couldn’t score anymore without taking away substantial ice-time from the other three lines on the team. In addition, players of this age and skill level tend to develop rapidly year-over-year, as demonstrated by Gaudreau’s massive jump in NHLE over the course of his college career.
Curious how rare it was to have an NHLE of 60 or higher, I sussed out a list of any players in the past 30 years (1983 – 2013) that had scored a NHLE 60 or higher the year before they entered the bigs. Here’s what we end up with…
Players | NHLE Year Before Going Pro | First Year Points (P/82) | Draft Year |
P. Kane | 62 | 72 | 2007 |
Crosby | 67 | 103 | 2005 |
Malkin | 69 | 89 | 2004 |
Kovalchuk | 77 | 64 | 2001 |
Richards | 73 | 62 | 1998 |
H. Sedin | 60 | 29 | 1998 |
Daigle | 63 | 50 | 1993 |
Kariya | 67 | 68 | 1993 |
Lindros | 64 | 101 | 1991 |
Forsberg | 81 | 87 | 1991 |
Ray Whitney | 63 | 32 | 1991 |
Kovalev | 67 | 48 | 1991 |
Naslund | 64 | 13 | 1991 |
Weight | 68 | 46 | 1990 |
Modano | 63 | 77 | 1989 |
Bure | 70 | 76 | 1989 |
P. Turgeon | 65 | 45 | 1988 |
Selanne | 90 | 129 | 1988 |
Amonte | 60 | 72 | 1988 |
Roenick | 72 | 74 | 1988 |
Sakic | 62 | 74 | 1987 |
Fleury | 61 | 77 | 1987 |
Nieuwendyk | 76 | 101 | 1985 |
Lemieux | 96 | 112 | 1984 |
Robitaille | 75 | 87 | 1984 |
B. Hull | 67 | 79 | 1984 |
LaFontaine | 82 | 104 | 1983 |
Looking at the list of players to have recorded a 60+ NHLE going into their first pro year, every single one of them went on to be a superstar except for Alexander Daigle. As well, almost every player came swinging straight out of the gates and put up remarkably productive rookie years. Many of the players listed above went on to win the Calder Trophy in their rookie year as well.
SUM IT UP
What Johnny Gaudreau is doing right now in the NCAA cannot be overlooked. He is the highest tracking non-NHL player since Patrick Kane. Gaudreau’s current NHLE also sits in a comparable class with Brett Hull, Eric Lindros, Theo Fleury, Joe Sakic, Ray Whitney, Sidney Crosby and many other notable players from the last 30 years.
Obviously it’s a different game from when most of those players reached the 60+ NHLE feat. In fact, there’s only been four players to reach the mark in the past 15 years, which likely means the lower leagues likely had different (lower) translation factors back in the day. Therefore, hitting the 60+ NHLE mark in today’s modern era is all that more impressive.
Nothing is written in stone but at this point, even despite Gaudreau’s height, we should be more surprised if Gaudreau doesn’t make a dent in the NHL than if he does. Evidence suggests he’s that good.
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