The Calgary Flames began their 2024-25 season on Wednesday evening with a dramatic overtime victory over the Vancouver Canucks.
With 81 games left to go on the schedule, we might as well discuss the elephant in the room: the many, many (many!) conditional first-round draft picks the Flames have for the 2025 NHL Draft that could be impacted by their performance this season. (Spoiler: there are three.)
How many first-rounders could the Flames have, and how could their on-ice performances impact them?

Three trades with many, many conditions

The three conditional picks are derived from three separate trades. Several of the originally-announced conditions are no longer in force, so here are the potentially applicable active trade conditions.
On July 22, 2022, the Flames traded Matthew Tkachuk and a conditional 2025 fourth-round pick to the Florida Panthers in exchange for Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Cole Schwindt and a conditional 2025 first-round pick.
  • Condition 1: If Florida’s first-round pick in 2025 is in the top 10, then their 2026 first-round pick transfers instead.
  • Condition 2: In whatever year Florida’s first-round pick goes to Calgary, Florida gets back Calgary’s fourth-round pick.
On Aug. 18, 2022, the Flames traded Sean Monahan and a conditional 2025 first-round pick to Montreal for future considerations.
Because the Flames’ potential first-rounders were potentially impacted by the Florida trade, the conditions for this trade are weird.
If Calgary receives Florida’s first:
  • If the Flames pick is outside of the top 10 then Montreal receives whichever pick is earlier.
  • If the Flames pick is in the top 10, then Montreal receives Florida’s pick.
If Calgary does not receive Florida’s first:
  • If the Flames pick is anything but first overall, then Montreal receives it.
  • If the Flames pick is first overall, then Montreal receives their 2026 first-round pick and their 2025 third-round pick.
On June 19, 2024, the Flames traded Jacob Markstrom to New Jersey for Kevin Bahl and a conditional 2025 first-round pick.
If New Jersey’s first-round pick in 2025 is in the top 10, then their 2026 first-round pick transfers instead.

Some probable scenarios

Over at The Athletic, Dom Luszczynszyn has built his annual standings projections, including probability of each team making the playoffs and points projections.
Based on these projections, odds are that Florida and New Jersey will make the playoffs. (Probably.) Based on those outcomes, they would be drafting outside of the top 10 and both of their first-round selections would transfer to Calgary.
So assuming that Dom’s projections are close to correct there are two scenarios based on the Flames’ standings performance over the season that could impact their draft choices.
If the Flames first-round pick is inside the top 10:
  • Florida’s first-round pick transfers to Montreal.
  • The Flames keep their own first-round pick and New Jersey’s.
If the Flames first-round pick is outside of the top 10:
  • Montreal gets whichever of Calgary or Florida’s first-round picks is earlier.
  • The Flames would keep the later of the Calgary/Florida picks and New Jersey’s.
Long story short: unless Florida and New Jersey dramatically under-perform relative to expectations, the Flames will have two first-rounders in the 2025 NHL Draft.