The Calgary Flames will face a third straight high quality Atlantic Division opponent when they host the Boston Bruins on Tuesday evening.

The Flames bounced back from an ugly 8-3 loss versus the Tampa Bay Lightning with a convincing shutout victory over the Florida Panthers on Saturday, and are now 11-4-1 on home ice this season.

Since appointing Joe Sacco as head coach, the Bruins have gone on an 8-4-0 tear, and enter this matchup sitting in third place in the Atlantic Division.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Over the last two NHL seasons we have seen numerous teams benefit from a ‘new-coach bounce’, including the Bruins, who have gone on a tear since firing former head coach Jim Montgomery. Montgomery held a dominant record of 120-41-23 during his tenure with the team, which arguably worked against him as the Bruins’ start was viewed as a significant underachievement.

While new head coach Joe Sacco did appear worthy of another chance to be a head coach at the NHL level, he did appear to be taking over the position at the right time. At the start of Sacco’s tenure, the Bruins had underachieved considerably based largely on an unsustainably low shooting percentage, and were coming up on a notably soft patch in the schedule.

Throughout Sacco’s 12-game tenure as head coach, the Bruins have faced just three teams currently inside of playoff position. They are 1-2-0 in those matchups, and hold a -5 goal differential. They do hold a dominant expected goal share of 57.58% in 12 games under Sacco, but that mark has been aided by dominant showings over teams like the Blackhawks, Red Wings and Canadiens.

Even the bottom-feeders will finish the NHL season with point percentages north of .325, and an 8-4-0 run versus any slate of opponents is impressive. Still, it does seem likely that the Bruins will come down to earth as they get into a tougher schedule moving forward. It also seems likely that part of the reason Boston’s results fell off so greatly under Montgomery this season is that the team’s roster is far from what it has been in the seasons directly previous to this one.

Elias Lindholm has struggled to perform as the team’s No. 1 centre. That’s not necessarily surprising, given that the last time Lindholm looked overly dominant was playing on the Flames alongside Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau. Top-six forwards, such as Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie, have looked better of late, but still project as flaws relative to other supposed contenders.

In part due to Hampus Lindholm’s long-term injury, the Bruins’ defensive core also doesn’t look as dominant as it has in years past.

While star netminder Jeremy Swayman’s numbers were aided from playing behind one of the league’s most well-structured defensive teams in years past, his form this year has also clearly been worse. Swayman holds a -10.8 GSAx and .888 save percentage across 22 appearances this season, and has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup.

It was clear that head coach Ryan Huska’s team’s performance in an 8-3 loss to the Lightning was entirely unacceptable, and they were able to bounce-back with one of their better performances of the season Saturday night as they shut out the defending champs.

As many observes have anticipated, it does seem as though the Flames are coming down to earth a little bit after their over achievement early in the season. Still, their play at home has been consistently dominant this season. With a record of 11-5 straight-up on home ice this season, bets on the Flames moneyline at home hold a +40.4% ROI this season.

Over their last 10 games on home ice, Calgary has allowed just 2.3 goals against per game. It’s clear that due to a lack of high-end offensive talents the Flames will need to outwork opponents and feature strong defensive structure, and that has often been the case in games taking place at the Saddledome this season.

In the month of December the Flames hold an expected goal share of 50.95%. Based on the ‘eye-test’ I’m not surprised to see they hold fairly solid underlying results, as really only the third period versus the Stars and their match-up versus the Lightning have looked overly bad in that span.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this match-up. He has played to a +4.2 GSAx rating and .915 save % in 15 appearances this season.

The Bruins have played significantly better during Sacco’s brief tenure with the team, but a notably soft schedule has clearly aided their improved results. Their offensive depth still looks concerning, and they aren’t getting the goaltending we have typically seen out of Swayman.

The Flames have been a highly profitable betting side at home this season with a record of 11-4-1. At their best, Huska’s side has displayed a strong defensive game, and leaned on high quality goaltending to beat some quality opponents. I think we will see the Flames follow up their impressive win over the Panthers with a strong effort in this spot, and I believe this match-up is more of a coin-flip than the current betting odds suggest.

At +105 or better, I see value backing the Flames to steal another win as a home underdog in this match-up.