Playing the second half of a back-to-back versus the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena is arguably the toughest matchup in hockey right now, and that is the challenge that the Calgary Flames will face on Sunday evening.

The Knights enter this matchup with a record of 9-1-0 over their last 10 games, and own a record of 14-3-0 on home ice this season. Vegas has confirmed that it will start backup goaltender Ilya Samsonov in this matchup, who holds a save percentage of .898 and a record of 8-3-1 in his first season with the team.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Thanks to a steady 5-2-3 record (11th-best points percentage in NHL) this December, the Flames are tied with the Dallas Stars for the final Western Conference Wild Card spot, though the Stars do hold a game in hand. As you would expect for a team that has greatly outperformed expectations, betting Calgary in every game this season would have generated a positive ROI of 2.9 percent.

The greatest reason the Flames have outperformed the expectations of oddsmakers in the early going is obvious, as a goaltending tandem of Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar, which was generally placed between 25-32 on all preseason rankings, has combined for an 11th-ranked team save percentage.

It did seem reasonable to expect Wolf to surpass the lowly expectations coming from observers outside of Calgary’s market. What I certainly wasn’t counting on was the Flames’ defensive core being nearly as effective as it has been. Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar looked to be the only blue-liners that were likely to play effective minutes, but that thought has been proven entirely wrong.

The Flames’ defensive core has been surprisingly strong, and GM Craig Conroy deserves plenty of credit for retooling a unit which lost Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin last season. Brayden Pachal, Kevin Bahl, and Joel Hanley have all outperformed expectations and provide the team with a much deeper defensive core than expected.

In the month of December, Calgary has allowed an xGA/60 rating of 2.92, which is the 11th-best mark in the NHL.

Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri combined for five points in last night’s win over the San Jose Sharks, and alongside Martin Pospisil have been able to produce like true top-line talents in recent matchups, which is one thing that has been desperately missing during the Flames’ surprisingly strong start to the season.

Dan Vladar has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds an .886 save % and 3.07 GAA in 17 appearances this season.

Thanks to their recent run of dominance, the Golden Knights are now priced as the betting favourite to win the Presidents’ Trophy, and the fifth favourite to win the Stanley Cup. They rank first in the league with a points percentage of .729 this season, and fifth in goal differential (+27).

At even strength, the Knights have held a fairly breakeven share of the overall run of play, and do appear to be outperforming expectations. They hold an expected goal share of 49.41% this season in even-strength play, which ranks 18th in the league.

A sixth-ranked power play, quality finishing, and excellent goaltending from Adin Hill have all helped the Knights win without generating even-strength chances at an elite rate, but it is possible that they start to look slightly less dominant moving forward.

Samsonov has been considerably less effective than Hill, as he holds a save percentage of .898 and allowed 2.97 goals against per game. Samsonov held a -8.1 GSAx and .890 save percentage in 40 appearances last season with Toronto.

There are a lot of positives to point towards surrounding the Flames’ recent play which suggests that they may give the Knights more of a test than oddsmakers are expecting in this matchup. Calgary continues to play a defensively sound brand of hockey, and in a number of recent matchups has done a good job of limiting opponents mainly to the type of chances that their goaltenders are supposed to save.

The Flames’ offensive play has started to look a little better overall, in part because they finally have a unit performing like a legitimate stop-line, thanks to Kadri and Huberdeau performing more like their former selves of late.

The Knights have not been as entirely dominant as their recent play suggests, and this sets up as a good spot to fade them versus a scrappy Flames side which could put together a decent offensive night versus Samsonov.

The Flames have performed quite well as betting underdogs this season, and I believe at +185 we have a good price to target them stealing another win as heavy underdogs in this matchup.