Johnny Gaudreau will be honoured Tuesday night as the Flames host the Blue Jackets for the first time since his tragic passing on Aug. 29.

The Flames will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 0-3-1 road trip in this match-up, in which they played to a minus-9 goal differential versus four non-playoff teams, which included a 5-2 loss to the Blue Jackets in the first match-up between these sides.

The Blue Jackets have been a pleasant surprise this season, and could move back into a playoff spot with a win in this match-up depending on the out of town scoreboard.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

With a record of 6-3-1 over the last 10 games, the Blue Jackets have themselves right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. While they are overachieving preseason expectations by a wide margin, there are plenty of positives to point towards which suggest they were simply underrated entering the year and may not come down-to-earth too greatly.

As I outlined ahead of Friday’s match-up between these sides, it seemed highly apparent that former coach Pascal Vincent did not do his young offensive talents any favours last season. A number of their talented young forwards such as Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson, and Cole Sillinger have benefited from the coaching change, and are now one year closer to their true primes from a development perspective.

The Blue Jackets have scored 3.61 goals for per game this season, and hold a positive goal differential in even strength play. Many of their skaters entered the year without much pedigree at the NHL level, they were guys that entered the league highly touted.

Zach Werenski has played at a Norris calibre, and likely has done enough to earn a spot on the USA Four Nations Cup roster as a result. Werenski is now benefiting from the addition of Dante Fabbro, who looked like a savvy pickup after the Predators made the surprising decision to place him on waivers.

Elvis Merzlikins is expected to get the start in goal. He has played to an .894 save % and 3.07 GAA across 15 appearances this season.

The Flames failed to carry any momentum from their tremendous homestand into their road trip, as after playing their best four-game stretch of the season, they played arguably their worst. As it stands entering this game, the Flames hold some of the most significant home/road splits in the NHL, as they are 9-3-0 on home ice and 3-6-4 on the road.

The Flames finished the month of November with a record of 7-5-3, and ranked 14th in points percentage in that span.

It’s starting to feel as though we have a pretty clear picture of what coach Ryan Huska’s side is right now. At their best, the Flames are going to be able to insulate their strong goaltending tandem with respectable defensive play. Based on solid overall depth they have the ability to drive play in the right direction at a respectable level, but lack the high-end offensive talents to finish chances at a high rate.

Andrei Kuzmenko is expected to be a healthy scratch in this match-up, and we should see a new-look second line of Yegor Sharangovich, Mikael Backlund and Matt Coronato as a result. Jacob Pelletier is expected to make his season debut, after earning the call-up with 19 points in 20 games in the AHL this season.

Dan Vladar has been confirmed as the Flames’ starting goaltender in this match-up. He has played to a .900 save % and 2.87 GAA in 12 games this season.

The Flames have been drastically better on home ice this season, and this does seem like a logical spot to expect a highly spirited effort as they look to bounce back from an ugly road trip. Calgary would be my lean at -135, but it’s hard to say that’s a great number when the Blue Jackets have been playing such a solid brand of hockey, and we just saw them thoroughly outplay the Flames on Friday.

Backing Sean Monahan to score in this match-up will surely be a popular play, and it’s a bet that I’m in full support of. It’s a narrative every fan of both teams would love to see, and the numbers suggest that at +280 it is far from a reach.

Monahan has scored eight goals in 23 games this season, and recorded a single goal in 30.4% of match-ups. That already suggests +280 (26.3% implied probability) is a good number. The Blue Jackets’ top line holds tremendous underlying results, which suggests Monahan’s production shouldn’t slow down anytime soon.

This does seem like a spot where we should expect the Flames to play a better game defensively, but I’m still happy with the price of +280 for Monahan to record a goal.