The Calgary Flames’ road woes continued Wednesday night in Detroit, as the Red Wings took advantage of a questionable too many men penalty in overtime. They are now 3-4-4 on the road this season compared to an elite mark of 9-3-0 on home ice. Still, the Flames have reached the American Thanksgiving benchmark sitting second in the division, and four points clear of teams outside the playoff picture.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have also overachieved expectations thus far in Dean Evason’s first season as bench boss, having played to a record  9-9-3 record thus far playing out of a deep Metropolitan division. They are 7-3-1 on home ice this season, and scored 3.43 goals per game.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames entered this road trip playing their best hockey of the season, as they went 4-0-0 on an important home-stand while allowing only six goals against. They were in a tough spot versus a desperate Sens’ side Monday, but looked to lack urgency in Wednesday’s loss to the Red Wings.

The Flames have done well to respond after many of their worst performances this season, and that is the spot they are in entering this match-up. While the way Wednesday’s game ended was very frustrating for Flames fans and bettors, they were outplayed fairly significantly entering overtime, and did not generate much versus a Detroit side that has not defended well this season.

One positive from that match-up was the play of Calgary’s top line of Connor Zary, Jonathan Huberdeau and Blake Coleman which played to a 92.2% expected goal share at even strength. Zary also tallied a critical game tying goal late in the third, and was arguably the best Flames skater in the match-up.

In 43.4 minutes together at even strength Zary, Huberdeau and Coleman hold a 58.6% expected goal share.

Dustin Wolf is expected to get the start in this match-up. He has played to a .921 save % and 2.47 GAA across 12 appearances this season.

Anthony Mantha remains the only skater on the injury report.

There are plenty of arguments which suggest former coach Pascal Vincent did a terrible job bringing along the Blue Jackets young talents last season. Almost nobody had a consistently defined role, and developing talents were given next to no leeway to make any mistakes.

Under Evason the Blue Jackets have bounced back offensively and hold the seventh highest goal per game average in the league entering this match-up.

Kirill Marchenko was among the team’s most misused skaters last season, and at times could barely hold down a spot on a very middling top power play unit despite yielding elite shooting abilities. Marchenko has found success playing alongside Sean Monahan at even strength, and those two have remained together on the top line the entire season.

Yegor Chinakhov, Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson offer the Blue Jackets a second line with meaningful offensive upside which has been highly productive of late. Since returning to the lineup Johnson has put up five points in three games, and he’s quietly put up ten points in seven games this season.

Many of the players now doing damage for the Blue Jackets were skaters which were high picks and entered the league with high offensive ceilings. They have scored 8.52 goals above expected this season and will likely come down to earth to some extent. Still, a combination of bad coaching from Vincent last season, as well as natural development for a number of key skaters suggests they could remain a better than expected team moving forward.

There has been some growing pains from a defensive perspective, which makes sense given the composition of the roster. The Blue Jackets have allowed 3.20 xGA/60 this season, and 3.62 goals against per game.

Their goaltending tandem was projected to be a weakness entering the year, and that has been the case as Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov have combined for a -11.5 GSAx rating. Their combined save % of .875 is the second worst mark in the NHL.

Merzlikins is expected to get the start in this match-up, and holds an .890 save % and 3.15 GAA in 13 games played this season.

The Flames have some edges which make me believe they will continue to post better results than the Blue Jackets throughout the rest of this season. They hold a far superior goaltender in Wolf, and should continue to do a slightly better job of insulating him defensively.

In time we will likely see the Flames play on the road stabilize, as it’s pretty rare in the current NHL for any team to offer this significant of splits, and it doesn’t feel like they have been as much worse on the road as their record suggests.

This looks to be a good spot for the Flames offence to stabilize and perhaps tally four goals for just the second time this month. The Blue Jackets aren’t getting great goaltending, and are average at best from a defensive perspective.

That makes me believe it’s a good spot to target the Flame who continues to look the most threatening offensively in Zary. I outlined ahead of the Nashville game why Zary would likely fare well as a centre, and he has been effective thus far playing alongside Huberdeau and Coleman.

Columbus holds the worst GAA of any side Calgary has played since Zary moved to the middle, and he enters this matchup with points in four straight games. With those thoughts in mind I’m surprised the price has only dropped to +105 compared to where it has been, and I see value backing Zary to stay productive.