The Calgary Flames will finally be rewarded with a favourable scheduling spot, as they host a Nashville Predators side which suffered an overtime loss last night in Edmonton and is now 1-3-3 on the road this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

After overachieving last year in posting 99 points and earning a Wildcard playoff berth, the Predators spent a lot of money last off-season to bring in Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei. They entered the year with a betting total of 99.5 points, and were heavily favoured to be a playoff side once again.

With just 13 points through 17 games, Nashville is on pace to come in under its preseason betting total by the widest margin of any team.

Stamkos, Marchessault and Skjei are all entering the years where players tend to offer considerable drop-offs in effectiveness, at ages 34, 33 and 30 respectively. They come from three well-run organizations, and it’s fairly telling that those teams didn’t make more of an effort to keep them around given their prominence to their respective teams.

To this point they have combined for a -3.2 expected Goals Above Replacement rating, and have not done anything to prove their former sides were wrong to let them walk away.

Over the last ten games the Predators have played to a record of 3-4-3, and a -7 goal differential. They hold a 46.93% expected goal share in that span, and have been outshot by 4.64 shots per hour. The one positive to point to from that sample is that they have played eight teams likely to make the playoffs, which has certainly made things look even worse than they are.

It will be interesting to see if coach Andrew Brunette shakes up his lines once again in this match-up, as the current combination hasn’t been overly effective. Brunette recently broke apart his former top line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist in elevating Stamkos to Nyquist’s spot.

The results haven’t been good, as they have played to an expected goal share of just 46.9% and a negative goal differential where it counts.

Centre depth is a significant concern for the Preds, as beyond Ryan O’Reilly none of their four options are achieving league average results. That concern will continue to be more significant if Tommy Novak remains sidelined in this match-up, and he remains questionable after missing a fifth straight game last night.

Unfortunately for the Flames, the Predators opted to start backup Scott Wedgewood last night versus Edmonton. Juuse Saros should get the start in this match-up, and he has been true to form thus far in stopping 5.4 goals above expected with a .911 save %.

The Flames are more than deserving of this favourable scheduling spot. After their three game eastern trip they returned home to face the Kings, and proved me wrong in earning a victory with a strong performance. They then set out to face a rested Canucks side the next night, and suffered what was somewhat of a scheduled loss as massive underdogs.

Over the last ten games the Flames have played to a record of 3-5-2, and hold an expected goal share of just 44.92%.

There is a portion of the fanbase that has grown a little frustrated with coach Ryan Huska and teams overall effort. That seems a little unfair to me, as overall the team is still outperforming preseason expectations built around the strength of the roster, and is even holding down a Wildcard spot.

Centre depth is one of the most notable concerns on the roster, and based on yesterday’s practice Connor Zary looks to be getting a shot centring the top unit between Jonathan Huberdeau and Yegor Sharangovich. As Ryan Pike notes, Zary was effective in a small sample playing the middle last season. He has the intelligence to be effective in his own zone despite his smaller stature, and has excellent vision to help drive play the other way.

Dustin Wolf is expected to get the start in goal. He has played to a .913 save % and 2.84 GAA in eight appearances this season.

The Predators entered the year as one of the leagues most overvalued teams, and seem to be getting a lot of credit to be favorites in this back-to-back spot. All of their big name acquisitions weren’t actually very effective in even strength play last season, and are on the wrong side of the age curve.

Nashville likely won’t be this awful moving forward, and it has played a ton of high quality opponents of late. Still, I think it’s Flames or pass in terms of a side given the prices on this game.

The Predators have been allowing a ton of chances against this season, and aside from the fact that they have played a tough schedule, there isn’t that strong of a case that will change. They provide a good match-up to buy on Zary, who’s gone cold after an excellent start to the season but is still skating in good roles and could be effective lining up at centre.

Zary is priced at +120 to record a point, and -150 to record two shots on goal. I see value splitting a unit on those two props in this match-up. I’m also keeping my eye out for where Saros save prop is set, and would play the over if it is 27.5.