The Calgary Flames will look to rebound from a frustrating overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues on Thursday night, as they take on a true Stanley Cup Contender in the Dallas Stars. Calgary has struggled to a record of 3-6-4 on the road this season, and enters this matchup having lost seven straight on the road.

The Stars are off to a steady 16-10-0 start, and are considered the fifth-most likely team to win the cup by oddsmakers at +1100. They are 5-5-0 over the last 10, and 10-2-0 on home ice this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames played well enough to win Thursday, as they outshot the Blues 39-24 and held a 15-13 edge in high-danger chances. The game ended on a controversial overtime winner by Colton Parayko, and based on previous comparable reviews, there is a fairly easy argument to be made that Flames fans had a legitimate beef with the goal standing after review.

The Flames failed to score four or more goals once again in that matchup, which tied a franchise record of 24 straight games. They will look to avoid breaking the record tonight, and are in a tough spot against a Stars team that has allowed just 2.58 goals against per game this season.

Based on today’s morning skate, it looks as though coach Ryan Hruska will keep the same forward lines in this matchup, aside from Andrei Kuzmenko drawing back into the lineup and taking over Ryan Lomberg’s spot on the fourth line. Lomberg has brought plenty of energy this season and done an excellent job in his role, but you can certainly see where Hruska is coming from to try and insert a little more scoring upside back into the lineup, though Kuzmenko has clearly struggled recently.

During the Flames’ streak of 24 games without scoring four goals they have generated 2.84 xGF/60 and 28.53 shots on goal per game. They hold the league’s lowest shooting percentage of just 7.43% in that span.

The Flames power play has been in a good run of play of late, as they have converted 32.3% of man advantage situations over the last 10 games. That includes a pretty marker from Matt Coronato in Thursday’s game, and Coronato looks set to remain on the top unit in this matchup.

Dustin Wolf is expected to get the start in this matchup. He has played to a .918 save % and 2.59 GAA in 13 appearances this season.

At 16-10-0, it feels like the Stars have played just well enough to not raise any concerns, but also not garner many headlines playing in a Central Division that has featured incredible starts from the Jets and Wild.

The right side of the Stars defensive core looked concerning entering the season, as after losing Chris Tanev it consisted of Ilya Lyubushkin, Matt Dumba and Nils Lundqvist. Lyubushkin has been better than expected, but Dumba has struggled considerably once again. As a result, the Stars will likely be among several contenders looking to add a top four RHD at the deadline.

The Stars boast a loaded offensive core, which features a trio of youngsters that appeared likely to take steps forward this season in Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque.

Top forwards Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson have been less productive than expected to start the season, but their shortcomings have flown a little under the radar given the overall depth of the Stars’ offensive core.

Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin, and Matt Duchene had been one of the best lines in the league, with all three producing at a greater than point-per-game clip prior to Seguin’s recent hip injury.

While Seguin’s loss is significant both at even strength and on the power play, Stankoven should be able to fill his role on the second line effectively. That trio out-attempted the Knights 24-11 in even-strength play on Friday, and combined for 15 shots on goal.

Jake Oettinger has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .911 save % and 2.45 GAA in 19 games this season.

A matchup in Dallas is among the toughest matchups in the NHL currently, and the Flames will need to put together an extremely sharp performance in order to hang around. Still, the Stars look to be favoured enough at their current price of -240.

At their best, the Flames have been able to insulate their elite goaltenders with well-structured play. Wolf is 8-4-1, and has helped the Flames perform well as an underdog this season. The Flames have struggled mightily away from the Saddledome, but in time we will likely see their combination of strong defensive play and quality goaltending fare better on the road.

The Stars’ second line has been among the best units in the league this season, and continues to generate a wealth of chances on net. That does not seem likely to change with Stankoven in Seguin’s place, and I think targeting that unit in the prop market continues to hold value.

Marchment has registered 21 shots over the last five games, and is still being offered at +120 to go over 2.5 shots on goal in this matchup. His shot volume will surely come down to earth over a larger sample, but that line continues to look excellent, and +120 is hard to pass up in this spot.