The Calgary Flames kicked off their difficult six-game road swing with a convincing 3-1 victory over the Washington Capitals, and will look to steal another win as heavy underdogs Thursday versus the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are in the midst of a six-game winning streak.

The Flames suffered an 8-3 loss on home ice when these teams met on December 12th, in what was arguably Calgary’s worst game of the entire season. Since that matchup, the Lightning have continued to play a well-rounded brand of hockey, and based off of Pinnacle’s odds for this game, are actually power-rated ahead of the Capitals.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames were the more inspired team in Tuesday’s matchup versus the Capitals, as they entirely dominated Washington in the first period, and were solid defensively in nursing their lead to the finish line. With only Anthony Mantha and Justin Kirkland left on the IR, it was our first glimpse at what will likely be Calgary’s “A” lineup for the rest of the season, barring any moves ahead of the trade deadline. 

Kevin Bahl was certainly not eased back into game action, as the hulking defender skated 23:01 in his return to play on Tuesday. Bahl returned to his regular roles on the top pairing and top penalty kill alongside Rasmus Andersson, earning a primary assist on Matt Coronato’s pretty 2-0 marker.

Three goals versus Logan Thompson and the Capitals has to be considered a decent offensive output, and it still seems entirely possible that with Connor Zary back in the lineup, as well as newcomers Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee, the Flames’ offensive play will improve moving forward.

It was another strong showing from the Flames top line of Coronato, Nazem Kadri, and Jonathan Huberdeau. All three recorded a point, and held a 52.5% expected goal share at even strength playing against some high-quality competition.

The Flames’ fourth line of Martin Pospisil, Kevin Rooney, and Ryan Lomberg was tremendous, and brought a ton of energy right from the get-go, kickstarting the team’s excellent first period. They even chipped in a rare goal, as well as offering their usual physical edge with 10 hits.

The Flames’ newly-formed third-line trio of Yegor Sharangovich, Morgan Frost, and Joel Farabee also had a strong showing, playing to a 62.3% expected goal share and generating four high-danger chances. Frost, in particular, had some good touches, and remained on a top power play unit which continues to look more threatening.

Perhaps the only real concern from the matchup was the play of Mikael Backlund, who was fighting the puck all night, and continues to look like a shell of his former self.

While Alex Ovechkin’s lone Capitals tally probably needs to be saved, Dan Vladar did have another strong showing. The Flames are going to need some points from Vladar’s starts down the stretch if they are going to make the playoffs, and his last two outings should inspire confidence that will happen.

After resting on Monday, it’s a safe bet that Dustin Wolf will get the start in Thursday’s matchup. Wolf holds a +10.4 GSAx rating and .913 save percentage in 34 appearances this season.

The betting lines on this matchup are quite interesting, as based on the Flames price of +191 with Wolf in goal, oddsmakers are saying that they view the Lightning as a superior team than the Capitals right now. The Lightning hold the league’s third-best goal differential of +50, and hold the league’s third-best expected goal differential over the last 20 games.

It seems entirely possible that this is the best Lightning roster since the teams that won back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons.

Nikita Kucherov is in the midst of another incredible campaign, and is only five points back of Nathan MacKinnon for the league lead in points, with three extra games left to work with. Brayden Point has been excellent at both ends of the ice once again, and letting captain Steven Stamkos walk in order to sign Jake Guentzel has proved to be a brilliant decision by GM Patrice Brisebois.

While the Lightning’s three highest-salaried forwards have been every bit as dominant as expected, Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli are both having better than expected seasons, and allow head coach Jon Cooper plenty of options towards how to configure his top-six.

Hagel and Cirelli have combined for 110 points so far, and are both highly responsible on the defensive side of the puck. Based on Thursday’s morning skate, they will play alongside Zemgus Girgensons on the second line.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has been confirmed as the Lightning’s starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .921 save percentage and 2.26 GAA in a league-leading 45 games played.

While the Lightning have been legitimately excellent of late, they are getting a ton of credit from oddsmakers currently priced at -216. The Flames will likely come out energized after their big win in Washington, and the lineup is currently looking more well-rounded than it has for most of the year.

Wolf has been among the most profitable goaltenders in the NHL this season, and has the potential to steal any relatively competitive game. This will certainly be a tough matchup for Calgary, but it still looks like Flames or pass in terms of betting a side.

Though some of the games have fallen apart later on, the Flames have been pretty consistent in getting off to good starts of late versus some quality opponents. They have won the first period in five of the last six games, and I believe at +275, we getting a good price to see if they can catch the Lightning off guard in the first period.