The Calgary Flames will look to take advantage of a favourable scheduling spot when they host the division rival Los Angeles Kings on Saturday evening.

The Kings played No. 1 goaltender Darcy Kuemper last night in a tough matchup versus the Winnipeg Jets, which they won 2-1 in overtime to extent their winning streak to five. Former Flame David Rittich is expected to get the start in this matchup as a result, and will be looking to improve upon his .887 save percentage this season.

As the matchup these teams were supposed to play Wednesday was postponed because of the wildfires in Los Angeles, Calgary has not played since Tuesday evening. The Flames are 13-6-3 on home ice this season, and could move back into the final playoff spot with a win in this matchup coupled with a Vancouver Canucks loss.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Kings have quietly been one of the NHL’s most consistent regular season teams over the last several years, but have been unable to get past the Edmonton Oilers in the first round. There is a case to be made that the 2024-25 edition of the Kings is better than we saw last season, though they do currently appear quite likely to take on the Oilers in round one once again.

The Kings have been one of the league’s best defensive teams in each of the last four seasons, and that fact has been somewhat masked by the fact that they haven’t really had an elite goaltender.

Kuemper had a disappointing campaign with the Washington Capitals last season, but it was the worst of his entire career and he has bounced back with an excellent first half. In 20 appearances, Kuemper holds a .919 save percentage and a +4.3 GSAx rating.

Rittich has been drastically less effective, as he holds a save percentage of just .887 and a -2.7 GSAx rating in 20 appearances.

Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke both appeared likely to be candidates to fare better in larger roles this season, and they have done so thus far which has helped to cover up for Drew Doughty’s absence due to an injury suffered in the preseason. Doughty has resumed skating, and is expected to be back sometime near the end of January.

The Kings’ inability to produce with the man advantage at close to the rate of the Oilers has been one reason for their recent playoff losses, and that weakness looks to be the team’s greatest concern once again this season. They hold a success rate of just 15.5% on the power play, which ranks 28th in the league.

Despite their putrid power play, the Kings still own a +23 goal differential, which is the eighth-best mark in the league.

Given what the Kings have been through this week, and the fact that they played last night in Winnipeg, the Flames will have no excuse if they can’t match the intensity of their division rival in this matchup. The Flames have been excellent in games they enter with more than two full days of rest this season, as they are 7-1-2 in those matchups thus far.

The Flames continue to do just enough to hang around in one of the softest playoff races in recent memory. They are 5-3-2 over their last 10 games, and hold a 48.97% expected goal share in that span, which ranks 18th in the league.

Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau and Martin Pospisil have played like a legitimate top line of late, and were quite effective once again in Anaheim on Tuesday. They have outscored opponents 12-6 this season, and scored 4.01 goals per 60.

The Flames’ current second line of Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund and Matt Coronato has also been a strength, as the trio has outscored opponents 11-5 this season and generated 69.75 shot attempts per 60.

One clear weakness among the Flames roster of late has been a lack of production from the bottom-six, and that problem may only get worse with Connor Zary now out due to injury. Zary’s injury looked to offer head coach Ryan Huska a good opportunity to give Rory Kerins, who has 34 points in 34 AHL games this season, a chance to play at the NHL level, but based on today’s morning skate that will not be the case.

The Kings have been playing some excellent hockey of late, but are in a tough spot here playing the second leg of a travelling back-to-back versus a rested home side. Rittich has posted well below average results this season, and the Flames have a pretty significant edge in goal in this matchup.

The Flames have had some issues generating meaningful offensive outputs, and have been playing a slightly below league average brand of hockey for a relatively large sample. Without overselling what the Flames currently are, it still seems fair to think that in this specific spot they should have a good chance of earning two critical points versus a quality divisional opponent.

At their opening price of +105, I believe the Flames were the betting side which clearly presented more value. At their current price of -110, I still lean with the Flames, but obviously the market has adjusted to this favourable spot accordingly.

This looks like a good spot to back Coronato snapping his six-game goalless stretch, in which he has had a ton of quality scoring chances. Over the last seven games, Coronato has poured 23 shots on goal from 41 shot attempts and generated 3.16 individual expected goals.

It’s well known that Coronato has an excellent shot, and he’s due to break through soon if he keeps getting chances at the rate we have seen lately playing alongside Backlund and Coleman. At +350, I see value backing Coronato get one past Rittich in this matchup.