The Calgary Flames will wrap up their four-game road trip with a Saturday matchup versus the Winnipeg Jets, who lead the Western Conference with a .707 point percentage this season.

After back-to-back losses in St. Louis, the Flames now own a record of 7-10-4 on the road this season.

The Jets have been dominant on home ice this season with a record of 18-4-3, but the Flames will catch a break in this matchup as backup goaltender Eric Comrie has been confirmed as the Jets starter. Winnipeg is just 3-6-1 in games started by Comrie this season, though he does hold a better than league average save percentage (.904).

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

While the St. Louis Blues seemed to elevate their level of play in Thursday’s critical rematch, the Flames failed to do so in what was one of the team’s more disappointing performances of the year. While Thursday’s game seemed to be a more favourable spot for the Flames, the team came out flat-footed and came out of the first period down three goals.

The Flames finished the game with just eight high-danger chances compared to the Blues’ total of 18, and once again did a good job of padding an opposing goaltender’s stats with a high total of low-quality shots. The Flames rank 28th in the league with a goal per game average of 2.59 this season, and a lack of offensive upside has obviously been the team’s greatest weakness this season.

The Flames’ top line was on the ice for just one goal for throughout their two matchups in St. Louis, and Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau were both held pointless. It was certainly disappointing to see the top line struggle in those matchups, and it also helped drive home the point that there isn’t much offensive talent to help pick up the slack elsewhere right now.

Even after those two matchups in St. Louis, Calgary’s current top line of Huberdeau, Kadri, and Martin Pospisil has outscored opponents 12-8 and scored 3.28 goals per 60 minutes of play.

It will be interesting to see if head coach Ryan Huska finally shakes up his fourth line in this matchup, which would likely mean sitting one or both of Walker Duehr and Kevin Rooney. The Flames’ current fourth line of Duehr, Rooney, and Ryan Lomberg has been outscored 5-0 in even strength play this season.

Dustin Wolf is the Flames’ projected starter, but has not been confirmed. He holds a .914 save percentage and 2.57 GAA in 24 appearances this season.

Connor Hellebuyck is priced among the favourites to win the Hart Trophy this season at every major sportsbook, and has a legitimate shot to become the first goaltender to be named league MVP since Carey Price in 2014-15. Hellebuyck’s vast significance to the team is pretty well illustrated in the betting market, as the Flames were consensus +185 underdogs earlier on prior to confirmation that Comrie would play.

Over the last two seasons, the Jets are 63-29 straight-up in Hellebuyck’s starts, and betting them in every one of those games would have netted a 17% ROI. Hellebuyck holds a +61.3 GSAx rating since the start of the 2023-24 season.

It can hard to fully quantify how much of a team’s success, or lack thereof, truly comes down to the form of their starting goaltender, as obviously there are all kinds of intricacies which effect the true quality of shots being faced.  Most logical indicators suggest that Hellebuyck’s true impact on the Jets is being underrated by the mainstream media, and tell us that Hellebuyck takes a solid defensive team and makes it appear to be the league’s very best.

Throughout 46 games this season, the Jets have allowed 3.08 xGA/60 per game, which is the 15th-highest mark in the NHL. There’s often arguments being made that the Jets do a better than average job of protecting the middle of the ice, but based strictly on shot locations, that is not necessarily entirely accurate.

While it’s a small sample, the Jets’ 3-6-1 record when Comrie starts is obviously a huge indicator of Hellebuyck’s significance. In Comrie’s starts the Jets moneyline holds a 47.4% ROI this season. He has played to a -2.5 GSAx and holds a 2.94 GAA.

While the Flames will have a better chance of doing some damage offensively with Comrie in goal, they will need to be sharp defensively as they look to keep one of the league’s best offences in check. The Jets rank second in the league with a 3.57 goal per game average. A huge part of the Jets’ elite offensive results has been their power play, which has succeeded 32.7% of the time.

The numbers suggest the Jets are a slightly better than average defensive team that continues to benefit from historically strong goaltending from Hellebuyck. While Comrie has been a perfectly fine backup goaltender this season, the gap between him and Hellebuyck is gigantic and has led to vastly differing results, albeit in a small sample.

At +160, the Flames would be my lean, but I see a little more value backing Huberdeau to a record a point at -109. He has been a point-per-game player over the last 20 games, and recorded a single point in 14 of those games. The top line was not at their best in either of the matchups versus St. Louis, but they been quite dominant for lengthy stretches of play prior to those two outings.

With Comrie in goal, the Jets become a much more reasonable target for Huberdeau to produce, and this looks like a good spot to back a prop which has been sitting in the -140 range throughout most of the Flames’ recent matchups.