The Calgary Flames will look to continue their dominant play on home ice Thursday evening in their first matchup of the New Year versus the Utah Hockey Club.

The Flames pushed their home record to 13-4-3 with a solid 3-1 victory over the Vancouver Canucks on New Year’s Eve, and moved back into the final Wild Card playoff spot in the process.

Utah enters this match-up in the midst of a five-game losing skid, and now sits five points back of Calgary in the playoff race. It will be playing its third road game in four nights in this match-up, and has been outscored by six in the opening two games of the road trip.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Utah enters off somewhat of a scheduled loss to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday evening. Not only was the team playing the second leg of a travelling back-to-back, but the team was also playing without captain Clayton Keller due to illness. Keller has been fantastic once again this season with 37 points in 36 games, and leads an offensive core which does pack some pretty significant punch.

Logan Cooley has taken considerable steps forward in his sophomore season with 33 points in 37 games, and has displayed excellent poise on the puck as expected when he went third overall in 2022. Dylan Guenther has put his elite release to good use in netting 16 goals in 37 games. The two combine to bring significant offensive upside to Utah’s second line.

Utah has spent the vast majority of the season without top pair defender Sean Durzi, who was off to an excellent start to the season prior to injury. It also lost another projected top-four defender in John Marino this preseason. Those absences greatly hurt the upside of a defensive core which projected to be a strength entering the season.

Former first-round selection Maveric Lamoureux earned a promotion from the AHL thanks to the injuries to Durzi and Marino and was beginning to find his game at the NHL level prior to suffering a long-term injury of his own on November 26th. Robert Bortuzzo is also missing from the Hockey Club’s blue line due to injuries.

Many pundits, like myself, were tabbing Utah as a potential playoff team this season. Given the way it has competed with a makeshift defensive core this season, it seems pretty fair to argue it may have been a playoff team without those injuries, which are beginning to look more prominent.

Over the last 10 games, Utah holds an expected goal share of 47.75% and a 3.37 xGA/60.

Goaltender Karel Vejmelka has been fantastic this season, which has helped to cover up for the team’s absences on the blue line to some extent. Vejmelka holds a .916 save percentage and 2.40 GAA in 22 appearances this season and is expected to get the start in this match-up.

The Flames were able to take advantage of a shorthanded Canucks roster on New Year’s Eve, and earn a win in a critical match-up which offered a four-point swing in the standings. Calgary held an 11-8 edge in high-danger chances, as well as a 29-19 edge in scoring chances overall, despite playing the majority of the contest with a lead.

The Flames were humiliated 8-3 on home ice by the Tampa Bay Lightning on December 12th, but have responded with a strong 4-1-2 run of play that has catapulted the team back into a playoff spot. In seven games since that loss, the Flames own a 52.6% expected goal share, and have scored 3.0 goals per game while allowing only 2.28 goals against per game.

Head coach Ryan Huska has found some continuity in his offensive lines, which seems to have helped power the Flames’ strong recent run of play. Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, and Martin Pospisil are performing like a legitimate top line, which continues to garner the majority of headlines surrounding the team right now.

The Flames’ third-line of Yegor Sharangovich, Connor Zary, and Jakob Pelletier was highly effective versus the Canucks, and broke through with the game’s opening tally. Pelletier was excellent versus Vancouver and has looked much better of late, and after being somewhat of an afterthought entering the year, the former 26th overall selection has made a positive impact in recent match-ups.

Dan Vladar is expected to get the start in this match-up but has not been confirmed. He holds a save percentage of .890 and a 3.02 GAA in 18 appearances this season.

Utah will be desperate to snap its five-game losing skid in this match-up, which has plummeted its chances of claiming the final Western Conference playoff spot. It features an elite goaltender in Vejmelka, who offers an edge over Vladar and arguably even Dustin Wolf, and some high-end offensive pieces producing close to a point-per-game in Keller, Cooley, Guenther, and Nick Schmaltz.

Thanks to Utah’s nightmare injury situation on the defence though, the Flames hold a significantly deeper defence core right now which should help them own more of the play in this favourable scheduling spot.

As noted, Utah will be playing it’s third game in four nights in this match-up, which is a considerable disadvantage. The Flames have been tremendous on home ice this season, and have been in strong form altogether dating back to their blowout loss versus the Lightning on Dec. 12.

At +100, I believe we are getting a good price to back the Flames to continue their surprising push for a playoff berth by earning two critical points in this match-up.