Alex Ovechkin will continue his efforts to surpass Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record when he faces off against the Calgary Flames on Tuesday evening.

Ovechkin enters this matchup just 20 goals away from passing the Great One with 33 games left to go in the season. While Ovechkin’s chase remains the main story surrounding the Capitals, their team dominance is certainly becoming one of the NHL’s more notable storylines.

The Capitals are 16-4-4 on the road this season and lead the NHL with 71 points in 49 games played. The Flames have been one of the league’s best home sides, sporting a record of 15-6-3 entering this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Former Capitals GM Brian MacLellan (who stepped down last offseason) and current GM Chris Patrick have done a fantastic job of retooling the roster on the fly, and have provided Jack Adams favorite Spencer Carbery with a much more well-rounded roster this season than last.

Last season, the Capitals snuck in the playoffs with a -37 goal differential, which was the worst of any playoff team in history. Even still, Carbery deserved more love in the Jack Adams race based off of what his team achieved with a drastically below-average roster, which featured several AHL’ers playing on a nightly basis in the second half due to injury.

As you would expect from a team currently sitting on top of the league standings, the Capitals have shown the ability to win games in a variety of different ways.

Newcomer Logan Thompson has earned a six-year extension with his fantastic start to the season, which has been the greatest reason for the Capitals’ strong start. He’s been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup after resting on Saturday in the Capitals’ 2-1 loss to the Vancouver Canucks.

Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, and Connor McMichael have all offered far lesser play of late, but the Capitals have remained highly successful based on the play of their elite defence corps and elite second line.

Pierre-Luc Dubois, Aliaksei Protas, and Tom Wilson have spent a ton of minutes playing against top offensive lines and have fared very well. They’ve outscored opponents 12-5, and hold a 55.6% expected goal share despite spending lots of time in tough matchups.

The Capitals’ special teams have remained a strength of late, as over the last month of action their power play holds a 25.6% success rate, while their penalty kill ranks first in the league with an 89.7% success-rate.

The Capitals hold a 53.01% expected goal share over the last 10 games across all disciplines, and hold a record of 7-1-2.

The Flames can certainly be proud of their play in a tough road back-to-back this weekend versus the Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets, and earning two points from the two matchups is certainly not a bad result. The Flames held a 50.79 expected goal share in the two games combined, and even held a 10-9 edge in high-danger chances in Winnipeg on Sunday.

Kevin Bahl suffered an injury versus the Wild on Saturday, and his absence was notable in Sunday’s loss. Bahl had been playing on the top defensive pairing alongside MacKenzie Weegar, averaging over 20 minutes of time on ice per game over the last 10 matchups.

Daniil Miromanov was elevated to the top unit in Bahl’s absence. He and Weegar combined for a -4 rating and owned an expected goal share of just 23.7%.

Based on Tuesday’s morning skate, Jake Bean will play alongside Weegar, while Miromanov will come out of the lineup in favour of Tyson Barrie.

The Flames’ top three offensive units will remain the same as we saw throughout the weekend’s matchups, while Tuesday’s fourth line appears to be Clark Bishop centering Ryan Lomberg and Adam Klapka.

After Dan Vladar was far from sharp in Sunday’s loss, it has been confirmed that Dustin Wolf will get the start in this matchup. Wolf holds a record of 18-7-2 this season, with a .916 save percentage and 2.54 GAA.

The Capitals may not have been quite as dominant as their record suggests of late, but there is still lots to like about the team moving forward and they have started to turn play in the right direction once again. They feature a well-balanced offensive attack, which has produced 3.49 goals against per game this season, and helped power their +53 goal differential.

Thompson ranks near the top of the league in most key statistical categories, and enters this matchup with an absurd 22-2-3 record. Washington is in the midst of a lengthy Western road trip which has featured a ton of travel, but it does hold a rest advantage in this matchup.

The Flames have received some elite goaltending of their own from Wolf, and are also winning games at an incredible rate when he is the starter. They have arguably been as strong defensively as the Capitals, but their offensive upside is far lesser than that of the Capitals.

I’m a little surprised to see this game priced as closely as it is. The Capitals have not necessarily owned as much of the play as you would expect for a team that could win the Presidents’ Trophy, but they have a lot of quality scoring threats and a goaltender who will likely earn a Vezina nomination.

At -141 or better, I see value backing the Capitals as road favorites. If you’re not interested in fading the home team, backing Wolf to record over 23.5 saves at -123 looks to be another solid bet once again, a bet we touched on last week which continues to hit at a high rate.