After suffering a convincing loss on Monday versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Calgary Flames will look to bounce-back when they take on the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.
The Flames are just 3-4-3 in their last 10 games, and are now trailing the Vancouver Canucks by two points in the wildcard race. As they hold one game in hand, they can pull even with the Canucks with a win from this match-up, but Calgary is priced as a heavy underdog at +240.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.
Flames vs. Rangers odds
- Flames Moneyline Odds: +240
- Rangers Moneyline Odds: -240
- Puck Line Odds: Flames +1.5 (-130), Rangers -1.5 (+115)
- Game Total: Over 5.5 -114, Under 5.5 +101
*Odds courtesy of Pinnacle and are subject to change. Use promo code Puck @ sign up.
Calgary Flames
After losing a lengthy coaches challenge early in the second period on a goal which would have tied the game at two, the Flames failed to regain any momentum, in what would ultimately become a blowout loss. Dustin Wolf was pulled for the first time since Nov. 26 2023 while playing for the Calgary Wranglers of the AHL.
The loss certainly was not on Wolf, as the Flames gave up far too many high quality looks to a number of the Leafs’ talented offensive threats. Toronto held a 14-7 edge in high danger scoring chances, and generated 3.28 expected goals.
To look towards a positive from Monday’s game, Rasmus Andersson had one of his better outings of the second half of the season. Improved play from the Flames’ assistant Captain is desperately needed right now given the state of the team’s defensive core, and hopefully he will continue trending in the right direction.
Calgary will also receive a boost as Connor Zary is eligible to return from his two-game suspension in this match-up, and could have some extra jump compared to other Flames’ skaters thanks to the added rest. As the Flames’ will not hold a morning skate ahead of this back-to-back spot it’s unclear where Zary would slot into the lineup, but this could be a good opportunity to insert him onto the top line alongside Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau.
Over the last 10 games Calgary ranks dead last in expected goal share, with a rating of 40.35%. It has generated only 2.34 xGF/60 in that span, and allowed 3.47 xGA/60.
The Flames have struggled mightily to generate offence all season long, but have often offered sharper defensive play than we have seen lately. While Dustin Wolf’s excellent play has always been the backbone towards Calgary’s success this season, he was receiving more respectable defensive support earlier on, and now it feels as though if Calgary is playing a solid opponent its only chance is its goaltender stealing a win.
Dan Vladar will likely get the start in this back-to-back spot, and is in the midst of one of his best stretches of play as Flame. In five appearances since Feb. 2, Vladar holds a .923 save percentage with a 2.23 GAA.
New York Rangers
Since trading for J.T. Miller on Jan. 31, the Rangers have been able to elevate their game enough to pull themselves into the final Eastern Conference wildcard spot entering Tuesday’s slate. They are 9-7-2 in that span, and have scored 3.09 goals per game while allowing 2.89 goals against per game.
Miller has put up 18 points during his 18 games with the Rangers, and has helped Mika Zibanejad regain top form after an ugly start to the season. Zibanejad has put up 20 points in the last 20 games, which is tied with Artemi Panarin for the team lead.
Here’s how the Rangers forwards lined up at Tuesday’s morning skate:
Artemi Panarin – Vincent Trocheck – Will Cuylle
Alexis Lafreniere – J.T. Miller – Mika Zibanejad
Chris Kreider – Sam Carrick – Jusso Parssinen
Chris Kreider – Sam Carrick – Jusso Parssinen
Brett Berard – Joey Brodzinski – Matt Rempe
When Miller first arrived, Rangers head coach Peter Laviolette had paired him with Panarin, but the current top-six alignments offers a more balanced look, with two highly competent top units. Will Cuylle has had an excellent season 37 points in 68 games playing mainly on the third-line, but has rightfully pushed his way into the top-six.
The Rangers are likely to get a major piece back in the lineup tonight, as Adam Fox is expected to return from a three-week absence. While Fox has had a down year by his standards, his +13.0 xGoals Above Replacement rating (Evolving Hockey) still ranks first among all Rangers skaters.
Best Bet for Flames vs Rangers
By no means does it seem fair to question the Flames desire to win right now, but it just seems that the team is running out of gas as they desperately attempt to stay in this playoff race. They have been heavily outplayed by the majority of opponents recently, and get a tough match-up here playing back-to-back versus a Rangers side that seems to have found new life since making a number of personnel changes.
As I outlined in yesterday’s article, it appeared wise to bet the Rangers early if you were interested in doing so, as they would likely become larger favourites as we got closer to puck-drop. The Rangers were priced at -200 to win this match-up yesterday, and are now priced at -240.
At the current prices backing the Rangers to cover the puck-line at +115 would still be my lean if I had to bet a side, but the prices appears to be adjusted enough to pass.
Yesterday we backed Matthew Knies to record a point, as the 22 year-old power forward’s chances of recording a point while playing on Toronto’s top-line looked to be undervalued. There looks to be value backing a comparable type of player to find the scoresheet in Tuesday’s match-up, as Cuylle is priced at +130 to record a point.
Cuylle has been one of the few true overachievers on the Rangers roster, and has been elevated to the team’s top line as a result. He has complimented Panarin and Trocheck well in recent match-ups, and been rewarded with a three-game point streak. At a long price of +130, I see value backing the blossoming power forward to stay hot in this match-up.
Best bet: Will Cuylle to record a point +130 (Pinnacle, Play to +125)