The Calgary Flames will continue their four game Eastern road trip with a date at Little Caesars Arena versus the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday. Calgary has struggled away from the Saddledome this season in posting a 3-4-3 record, and suffered a 4-3 loss last time out in Ottawa.

The Red Wings have played to a record of just 4-5-1 on home ice though, and are 4-5-1 over the last ten games.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Red Wings entered this season with a betting total of 90.5 points, which was nine points greater than the mark oddsmakers set for the Flames. Clearly the Flames have proven a lot in the early going, as they are now priced evenly with the Red Wings for a game in Detroit, which tells us the market considers the Flames to be a better team.

While I certainly didn’t expect the Flames to be this good, the Red Wings roster looked to be clearly overvalued entering the year, and I think a lot of what has made Calgary the better of these two sides is sustainable moving forward. The Flames roster features far more defensively accountable skaters, both up-front and on the back-end.

In the month of November the Flames have allowed just 2.93 xGA/60, which is the 12th best mark in the NHL. They have allowed just 1.91 goals against per game in that span, and have looked visibly sharp from a defensive perspective in the majority of recent performances.

The Flames blue-line was a significant strength over the last several seasons, but with Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev gone was projected to be far more of a concern in 2024-25 and was among the reasons Calgary was expected to fall-off considerably.

MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson have been excellent as expected, but Kevin Bahl and Daniil Miromanov have both surpassed expectations in the early going leading to a strong top-two pairs.

Dan Vladar is considered probable in this match-up. He has played to a .903 save % and 2.67 GAA in 10 appearances this season.

Similar to the Flames last opponent being the Senators, this is supposed to be the year things are finally different in Detroit. The Red Wings have missed the playoffs in eight consecutive seasons, which is the second longest drought in the NHL.

While Steve Yzerman built up a strong reputation with his success as general manager Tampa Bay, that reputation is starting to fade away as the Red Wings rebuild continues to yield poor results.

The Red Wings have allowed the fifth most shots on goal per 60 this season, and 3.28 xGA/60. Entering the year the roster projected to struggle defensively, and those concerns have come to fruition. Aging veterans Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry and Justin Holl are all significantly below average NHLers at this point, and struggle to drive play in the other direction at even strength.

In the month of November the Red Wings rank 28th in expected goal share, and have looked visibly bad. A strong power play and elite goaltending from Cam Talbot has helped them stay competitive in that span, even if a 5-5-1 record is still highly unimpressive.

Talbot has been confirmed as the Red Wings starter in this matchup. He has played to a +7.6 GSAx rating and .921 save % in 12 games played this season.

Patrick Kane will remain sidelined with an upper body injury, and is expected to be the only regular missing from the Red Wings lineup.

The Red Wings are rostering a few more high-end offensive talents in skaters like Larkin and Raymond, but that looks to be their only advantage in this match-up. The depth of their defensive core is a significant concern, and they have allowed a ton of chances against all season long.

Even while Talbot has been surprisingly dominant, the Red Wings overall results have been quite middling, and their 9-10-2 record is a fair take on their play thus far.

The Flames may not be quite as strong a team as their record suggests, but they have still offered a far more convincing process than that the Red Wings so far. Calgary holds superior depth further down the lineup, and has been in good form entering this match-up.

At -110 I see value backing the Flames in this match-up, and would bet them down to -115.