The Flames get an exciting opportunity to bounce-back from Thursday’s loss to Carolina, as they take on Winnipeg Jets side that is 7-0-0 with a +18 goal differential.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favorite betting angle below.

It was far from surprising to see Scott Arniel appointed as head coach of the Jets this summer, as it was well known that he was a big part of the Jets’ highly improved defensive form last season, and had earned the chance to be an NHL head coach once again.

The Jets did a good job of insulating the high quality shooting areas last season, leaving the opposition mainly with perimeter or pressured shots. One interesting testament to last season’s strong defensive play was backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit’s +13.1 GSAx rating, as the chances that helped him play to that number likely were of lower quality than public expected goals models registered.

In eight games under Arniel the Jets have allowed only 2.96 xGA/60, and 1.85 goals against per game.

They aren’t generating a ton at the other end though, and their overall offensive process has been propped up by eight and six goal performances versus two horrific defensive teams being the Sharks and Penguins, as well as three 3-on-3 goals.

The Jets 2.91 xGF/60 ranks 25th in the NHL. They have shot 13.98%, compared to last seasons mark of 10.25% with essentially the same roster.

Hellebuyck has played six of the Jets seven games thus far, and it’s quite possible they opt to rest him in favour of Eric Comrie in this matchup. Keep your eyes out for final confirmation towards the Jets confirmed starter. Comrie was effective in his lone start of the season, stopping 39-of-42 shots last Sunday versus Pittsburgh.

Ryan Huska will look to draw a response from his group here, after what was their worst performance of the season versus Carolina. The Flames have allowed 81 shots against over the last two games, and seven goals against where it counts.

So far the Flames have played relatively high event hockey this season, as they rank 12th in expected goals for, but are 22nd in expected goals against. I’m not convinced that will be the going rate from Hruska’s club though, and part of those numbers has been the competition they have faced.

The Jets have rarely allowed three goals against and have almost never have allowed four over the last two regular seasons, and the Flames can’t expect to score their way out of trouble in this matchup.

The Flames opted to send Matt Coronato back to the AHL Friday, as with Kevin Rooney now back in the mix it is a crowded group up front. Perhaps Flames’ brass believes it’s the best move for Coronato’s development, but with Coronato on the ice they have owned  58.49% of the high danger chances, and he has more scoring upside than other forwards competing for those minutes.

Dustin Wolf is expected to start in this matchup. He holds a .936 save % and 2.30 GAA across three starts this season.

The Jets overall process looks slightly less convincing then their 7-0-0 record suggests, and outside of opening night’s 6-0 win over Edmonton, their games versus good teams have been quite competitive. This looked to me like a good spot to try and fade the Jets as they finish up a three-game road swing, but I was expecting they would open as larger underdogs. I wouldn’t talk anyone off a bet on the Flames here, but am not huge on the price.

The one angle I do see value on is backing the first period to go under 1.5 goals at +100. Hruska will demand a sharper defensive performance from his group in this matchup, and the majority of their work this season suggests they have it in them. The Jets are generating chances at a below average rate too, and offer the Flames a good opponent to do a better job of limiting quality looks than we saw versus the Penguins and Hurricanes.