The Flames look to be coming down to earth, as they have lost three of four entering this tough road matchup in Vegas.

The “fortress” looks like it will once again be one of the toughest arenas to play in this season, as the Knights are off to a 6-2-1 start and hold a +14 goal differential.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It might not quite be fair to say Saturday’s matchup versus the Jets was a tough luck loss, but the sequence of penalties at the end of the game was certainly unlucky. In even strength play the Flames held the Jets to just five high danger chances, and were able to generate six of their own.

It was a step in the right direction for a Flames side that had allowed 81 shots against in the previous two matchups.

The Flames do hold fairly strong underlying numbers over the entirety of the season. They have played to a 50.81% expected goal share, and have generated 3.32 xGF/60, which is the 12th best mark in the league.

Special teams play has been a concern to this point, as they have just a 71.4% success rate on the penalty kill, and have clicked only 18.5% of the time on the powerplay.

Yegor Sharangovich played 19:23 in his season debut Saturday, skating on the top unit alongside Nazem Kadri and Andrei Kuzmenko on the top line, as well as on the second powerplay unit.

The Flames have been consistent with splitting starts between Dan Vladar and Dustin Wolf, which would suggest this should be a start for Vladar. Wolf has shown slightly better overall though with a .924 save % and 2.74 GAA, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him earn back-to-back starts soon.

It feels like the Knights entered this year flying under the radar, after finishing as a Wildcard team last season, prior to a first round elimination versus an elite Dallas Stars side.

They have come out of the gates in strong form, and it’s been their new-look offence leading the way. The Knights 4.67 goals for per game average ranks first in the NHL, though whether or not that mark will hold once they aren’t shooting 15.36% is debatable.

Tomas Hertl looks to be finding his footing with his new side as he has recorded seven points over the last four games. He’s found chemistry on a second line playing alongside two widely underrated players in Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden. In even strength play the trio holds a 53.6% expected goal share and has generated 3.87 xG/60.

The Knights power play holds a 36% success rate, which ranks fourth in the NHL.

William Karlsson made his season debut Saturday versus the Sharks, recording a goal and an assist in 13:58 of TOI.

Adin Hill rested Saturday versus the Sharks, and is expected to get this start as a result. He has played to a -2.6 GSAx and .864 save % in five starts this season.

The Knights are still allowing a lot of chances against, and likely haven’t been as entirely dominant as their record suggests. Sharper money looks to have come in on the Flames in this matchup, as the price for them to win is now come down significantly to its current price point of +140, which looks accurate to me.

The Knights are still allowing a higher than average amount of chances against, and their goaltending tandem has not been outright dominant. This doesn’t look like a bad spot to target a productive night from some of the Flames top skaters, and the number that sticks out most to me is Andersson to record a point at +105.

Andersson is up to 10 points in the seasons opening eight games, and generating a ton of scoring chance assists both at even strength and on the power play.

The other prop I’m backing is Pavel Dorofeyev to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +110. Dorofeyev ranks second on the Knights in shots on goal per 60 as well as shot attempts per 60, which is including a few games that weren’t in his current roles. He looks to be finding chemistry with Hertl at even strength, and is getting plenty of looks on the top powerplay unit as well.