Since joining the Calgary Flames via the major Jonathan Huberdeau for Matthew Tkachuk blockbuster trade, MacKenzie Weegar has been one of the most dynamic forces across the NHL landscape on the back-end. Although the best parts of his game might be a bit quieter than most, he’s one of the best two-way defencemen in the league.

After a strong first year on the defensive side of things under former Flames head coach Darryl Sutter and a switch to a more offensively-minded coach in Ryan Huska, I predicted before the season that he would find a spark. And, sure enough, he did. However, my prediction was focused on voting for the Norris Trophy award and not his counting stats, which, unfortunately, did not pan out the way I (and I’m sure every Flames fan who tuned in to watch the team and Weegar this season) wanted it to.

Weegar didn’t appear on any of the submitted Norris Trophy ballots.

As previously mentioned, Weegar is one of the premier two-way defenders in the NHL. He is not only a strong puck-mover but also solid defensively and has a menacing, physical presence on the blue line. He had the best season of his career offensively in 2023-24, posting career highs in goals (20) and points (52), with his 32 assists coming only in second to his total of 36 in the 2021-22 season with the Florida Panthers. His 20 goals were third in the NHL among defencemen, only behind Roman Josi (23) and Cale Makar (21). As for the points, he was 17th among defencemen in the NHL.

The analytics for Weegar’s season are a bit up and down. His goals above replacement (GAR) total is 42nd among defencemen, and his expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is 98th at 5v5. It’s even slightly below the average mark of 50 percent. However, his expected goals above replacement (xGAR) is ninth among all defencemen.

Below is Weegar’s regularized adjusted plus-minus chart courtesy of Evolving-Hockey:

The standout part of the chart obviously shows the high goals per 60 (GF/60) on the power play. He only scored three goals on the power play all season, but he registered 12 assists and was one of the key cogs of the first power play unit. Weegar’s power play GAR ranked ninth among all defencemen, but as the chart showcases, it was likely a bit inflated, considering his expected goals per 60 (xGF/60) on the power-play is much closer to the average.

While Weegar had the best season of his career in terms of his offensive output, his defence was around average at best (even though watching him every game felt like it was better than that), which reduced his likelihood of making the Norris ballots. When you aren’t as stellar on defence as you have been in previous seasons and you’re not putting up the overall offensive numbers of a Josi or a Quinn Hughes, even making it into the top 10 of voting is a challenge.

Weegar has been a staple of a Flames defence core being upgraded with seemingly every move Craig Conroy makes. He has put a clear focus on shoring up the blue line in hopes of “building from the back-end” since taking the general manager job, and the 30-year-old right-handed defenceman has made sure to become a leader on and off the ice from his position. While this prediction didn’t pan out this past season, who knows if it could pan out next season?