One of the more perplexing prospects in the previous NHL entry draft was Flames fourth round selection Adam Ruzicka. The Slovakian centerman had all the makings of a future first round pick: size, skill, smarts, and a resume with professional and international experience.
What were missing were results. Although he performed well with Slovakia at the U18 World Juniors, his OHL statline raised concerns. He finished the season under a point per game, with 46 points in 61 games. He underwhelmed on ice and took a dramatic tumble down the draft boards.

To demonstrate the scope of this slide, let&#8217;s dive into the discourse surrounding Ruzicka. Here&#8217;s how Brock Otten of OHL Prospects described Adam Ruzicka when he came to the CHL in the import draft:
<blockquote>Sarnia swings for the fences with their other import pick (aka insurance for Pavel Zacha). Ruzicka is considered a potential first round pick at next year&#8217;s draft and has long been hyped as one of Slovakia&#8217;s next superstars (considering their current slump). He&#8217;s a 6&#8217;4 center who was already near a point per game as an underager at this year&#8217;s U18&#8217;s. If he comes, that&#8217;s a BIG get for the Sting.
<a href="http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/07/2016-chl-import-draft-review.html">2016 CHL import draft review</a></blockquote>
A few weeks into the season, Otten dialled back the hype a bit:
<blockquote>Tough prospect to rank at this point. Entered the season with a lot of hype as a potential first round talent. But his production and overall play has been somewhat disappointing thus far. His big frame and ability to control the puck is definitely noticeable. But I haven&#8217;t been incredibly impressed with his skating ability and he looks a bit sluggish away from the puck. I will say that I think he&#8217;s been a bit snakebitten thus far though, as in the couple Sarnia games that I&#8217;ve seen, he&#8217;s had some glorious chances that he just couldn&#8217;t bury. Too early to drop him too much, as we have to remember that he&#8217;s playing in his first year in the OHL, as a rookie import away from home.
<a href="http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/10/early-season-top-50-for-2017-nhl-entry.html">Early season top 50 for the 2017 NHL entry draft</a></blockquote>
Halfway through the season, NHL central scouting ranked Ruzicka as the 27th best draft eligible skater in North America. They would later drop him to 37th on the final list.
Come draft time, scouts were far less friendly. From <a href="http://www.redlinereport.com/">Red Line Report</a>:
<blockquote>Huge centre with outstanding physical tools has a body like Adonis, but a brain like Elmer Fudd. Decent puck skills and uses his wide body to spread out and protect the puck. Has an exceptionally long reach and a hard, heavy shot that he snaps off around the slot with great torque. Soft hands &#8211; gives and receives passes well, and can make moves in traffic. Can dish the puck and is a decent playmaker. Wins faceoffs on muscle alone. However, we see zero hockey sense, and he doesn’t seem to take his craft seriously. We get no sense of commitment to the game, or to improving. He floats, lacks intensity, and doesn’t use his physical advantage to hit or win battles. 
Projection: Frustrates with great tools and no compete level. 
Style compares to: Rene Bourque/Benoit Pouliot</blockquote>
Later, they placed him third on their rankings for the &#8220;Alexandre Daigle Award,&#8221; for most overrated, and for their &#8220;Scarecrow&#8221; trophy, for those with good looks but no brains:
<blockquote>Adam Ruzicka — Great size/tools will get him drafted no later than 3rd round, but he closely resembles character on The Walking Dead.</blockquote>
J.D. Burke of CanucksArmy provided a slightly more balanced scouting report in the NationNetwork&#8217;s pre-draft prospect rankings:
<blockquote>I must admit, I’m surprised we’ve ranked Ruzicka as highly as we have. Ruzicka is a near perfect example of everything we’ve historically cautioned against overvaluing at Canucks Army. He’s a big centre who looks the part of an NHL prospect in every way but doesn’t produce a tonne offensively. His underlying metrics don’t shine a more favourable light on his game, either.
&#8230;
I would altogether be lying though if I tried to suggest I don’t see some of what others are striking at where Ruzicka is concerned.
There are a lot of elements to Ruzicka’s physical toolkit that are supremely likeable. Whether I think the hockey world overvalues size or not, there’s something to the fact that Ruzicka can skate reasonably well with his build. He’s a player who gets around the net and flashes high-level creativity on the odd shift. I can see a scout looking at a player like Ruzicka and pondering all his yet untapped potential and what his team could make of it if they chart the right course for his post-draft development.
<a href="https://flamesnation.ca/2017/05/24/nation-network-prospect-profile-62-adam-ruzicka/">Nation Network Prospect Profile: #62 Adam Ruzicka</a>
</blockquote>
I cannot actually speak for these writers, but I&#8217;m sure all would be surprised (as most of us are) by Ruzicka&#8217;s start to the 2017-18 season. He is on pace to more than double his points total from last season, having scored 27 points in 16 games. He currently sits third among OHL forwards in total scoring and primary points, and fourth in shots. He&#8217;s on pace to score just about 115 points over the course of a full season, which is an extremely promising sign for a 19-year-old.
So how has this draft day risk managed to swing fortune in his favour in such a short time?
One continuing theme through these scouting reports would be Ruzicka&#8217;s consistency. Although they attribute it to different factors, one of the key criticisms of his 2016-17 play was the inability to repeat the positives on a night-in, night-out basis.
Let&#8217;s compare his first 16 games from this year and last. In 2016-17, Ruzicka scored just 10 points through the first quarter-ish of the season. Here&#8217;s how that looked:
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-43933 aligncenter" src="https://flamesnation.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/11/chart1.png" alt="" width="853" height="527" />
So five points in his first three games and five over the next 13, including a seven-game scoring drought. That was a common theme in his 2016-17 season; Ruzicka saw four droughts of three or more games (this seven-game streak being the longest) and 30 games where he did not record any points.
Now here&#8217;s this season, so far:
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-43934 aligncenter" src="https://flamesnation.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/11/chart3.png" alt="" width="788" height="487" />
Compared to last season, Ruzicka is starting to score and contribute more frequently. Although he&#8217;s slowed down a bit from his gaudy pace in the first few games of the season, he is still consistently putting up points where he would&#8217;ve disappeared last year.
This is also driven by Ruzicka&#8217;s shot generation. Again, 2016-17 vs 2017-18:
This slideshow requires JavaScript.<div id="gallery-43738-1-slideshow" class="jetpack-slideshow-window jetpack-slideshow jetpack-slideshow-black" data-trans="fade" data-autostart="1" data-gallery="[{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/publish.flamesnation.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2017\/11\/chart11.png&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;43935&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;chart(1)&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;itemprop&quot;:&quot;image&quot;},{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/publish.flamesnation.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2017\/11\/chart2.png&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;43936&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;chart(2)&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;itemprop&quot;:&quot;image&quot;}]" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/ImageGallery"></div>
Ruzicka&#8217;s high in shots on goal through this period last season was five. This year, he&#8217;s hit that total in nine of his 16 games.
That&#8217;s probably the most impressive aspect of his growth. Ruzicka has become a more lethal offensive threat, mostly thanks to his ability to put pucks on net. One of the areas he struggled last year was certainly shot generation, averaging just about two per game. He&#8217;s currently shooting an average of 4.625 times per game this year.
<h2>The future</h2>
Sarnia is clicking on all fronts, and it&#8217;s reasonable to expect Ruzicka to follow suit.
But there is still room for improvement. We can&#8217;t lie and say that increased powerplay time has not been a contributing factor to Ruzicka&#8217;s success. He is currently two points away from matching his 2016-17 PP results, and PP contributions are 17 of his 27 points. That&#8217;s a red flag for any prospect.
Although there are positive signs. Ruzicka is still on pace to outdo his 2016-17 5v5 self with regards to points (from 33 to 43) and shots (124 to 174). He does have some decreased scoring rates per 60, but his shooting percentage has currently nearly been cut in half (14.4% to 7.32%), so if that rebounds, we&#8217;ll likely see more 5v5 production.
It is still early in the season, but the returns on Ruzicka are very promising for a fourth round pick. He is starting to show some of the flashes that got scouts excited when he was drafted by the Sting.
As already stated, consistency is key. There are always players that start out hot and fizzle out by the New Year. Ruzicka&#8217;s production, especially with regards to shot generation, seems to indicate that he could sustain some of his early season numbers.

One of the more perplexing prospects in the previous NHL entry draft was Flames fourth round selection Adam Ruzicka. The Slovakian centerman had all the makings of a future first round pick: size, skill, smarts, and a resume with professional and international experience.

What were missing were results. Although he performed well with Slovakia at the U18 World Juniors, his OHL statline raised concerns. He finished the season under a point per game, with 46 points in 61 games. He underwhelmed on ice and took a dramatic tumble down the draft boards.



To demonstrate the scope of this slide, let's dive into the discourse surrounding Ruzicka. Here's how Brock Otten of OHL Prospects described Adam Ruzicka when he came to the CHL in the import draft:
<blockquote>Sarnia swings for the fences with their other import pick (aka insurance for Pavel Zacha). Ruzicka is considered a potential first round pick at next year's draft and has long been hyped as one of Slovakia's next superstars (considering their current slump). He's a 6'4 center who was already near a point per game as an underager at this year's U18's. If he comes, that's a BIG get for the Sting.

<a href="http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/07/2016-chl-import-draft-review.html">2016 CHL import draft review</a></blockquote>
A few weeks into the season, Otten dialled back the hype a bit:
<blockquote>Tough prospect to rank at this point. Entered the season with a lot of hype as a potential first round talent. But his production and overall play has been somewhat disappointing thus far. His big frame and ability to control the puck is definitely noticeable. But I haven't been incredibly impressed with his skating ability and he looks a bit sluggish away from the puck. I will say that I think he's been a bit snakebitten thus far though, as in the couple Sarnia games that I've seen, he's had some glorious chances that he just couldn't bury. Too early to drop him too much, as we have to remember that he's playing in his first year in the OHL, as a rookie import away from home.

<a href="http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/10/early-season-top-50-for-2017-nhl-entry.html">Early season top 50 for the 2017 NHL entry draft</a></blockquote>
Halfway through the season, NHL central scouting ranked Ruzicka as the 27th best draft eligible skater in North America. They would later drop him to 37th on the final list.

Come draft time, scouts were far less friendly. From <a href="http://www.redlinereport.com/">Red Line Report</a>:
<blockquote>Huge centre with outstanding physical tools has a body like Adonis, but a brain like Elmer Fudd. Decent puck skills and uses his wide body to spread out and protect the puck. Has an exceptionally long reach and a hard, heavy shot that he snaps off around the slot with great torque. Soft hands - gives and receives passes well, and can make moves in traffic. Can dish the puck and is a decent playmaker. Wins faceoffs on muscle alone. However, we see zero hockey sense, and he doesn’t seem to take his craft seriously. We get no sense of commitment to the game, or to improving. He floats, lacks intensity, and doesn’t use his physical advantage to hit or win battles.
Projection: Frustrates with great tools and no compete level.
Style compares to: Rene Bourque/Benoit Pouliot</blockquote>
Later, they placed him third on their rankings for the "Alexandre Daigle Award," for most overrated, and for their "Scarecrow" trophy, for those with good looks but no brains:
<blockquote>Adam Ruzicka — Great size/tools will get him drafted no later than 3rd round, but he closely resembles character on The Walking Dead.</blockquote>
J.D. Burke of CanucksArmy provided a slightly more balanced scouting report in the NationNetwork's pre-draft prospect rankings:
<blockquote>I must admit, I’m surprised we’ve ranked Ruzicka as highly as we have. Ruzicka is a near perfect example of everything we’ve historically cautioned against overvaluing at Canucks Army. He’s a big centre who looks the part of an NHL prospect in every way but doesn’t produce a tonne offensively. His underlying metrics don’t shine a more favourable light on his game, either.

...

I would altogether be lying though if I tried to suggest I don’t see some of what others are striking at where Ruzicka is concerned.

There are a lot of elements to Ruzicka’s physical toolkit that are supremely likeable. Whether I think the hockey world overvalues size or not, there’s something to the fact that Ruzicka can skate reasonably well with his build. He’s a player who gets around the net and flashes high-level creativity on the odd shift. I can see a scout looking at a player like Ruzicka and pondering all his yet untapped potential and what his team could make of it if they chart the right course for his post-draft development.
<a href="https://flamesnation.ca/2017/05/24/nation-network-prospect-profile-62-adam-ruzicka/">Nation Network Prospect Profile: #62 Adam Ruzicka</a>
</blockquote>
I cannot actually speak for these writers, but I'm sure all would be surprised (as most of us are) by Ruzicka's start to the 2017-18 season. He is on pace to more than double his points total from last season, having scored 27 points in 16 games. He currently sits third among OHL forwards in total scoring and primary points, and fourth in shots. He's on pace to score just about 115 points over the course of a full season, which is an extremely promising sign for a 19-year-old.

So how has this draft day risk managed to swing fortune in his favour in such a short time?

One continuing theme through these scouting reports would be Ruzicka's consistency. Although they attribute it to different factors, one of the key criticisms of his 2016-17 play was the inability to repeat the positives on a night-in, night-out basis.

Let's compare his first 16 games from this year and last. In 2016-17, Ruzicka scored just 10 points through the first quarter-ish of the season. Here's how that looked:

<img class="size-full wp-image-43933 aligncenter" src="https://flamesnation.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/11/chart1.png" alt="" width="853" height="527" />

So five points in his first three games and five over the next 13, including a seven-game scoring drought. That was a common theme in his 2016-17 season; Ruzicka saw four droughts of three or more games (this seven-game streak being the longest) and 30 games where he did not record any points.

Now here's this season, so far:

<img class="size-full wp-image-43934 aligncenter" src="https://flamesnation.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/11/chart3.png" alt="" width="788" height="487" />

Compared to last season, Ruzicka is starting to score and contribute more frequently. Although he's slowed down a bit from his gaudy pace in the first few games of the season, he is still consistently putting up points where he would've disappeared last year.

This is also driven by Ruzicka's shot generation. Again, 2016-17 vs 2017-18:

[gallery type="slideshow" size="full" ids="43935,43936"]

Ruzicka's high in shots on goal through this period last season was five. This year, he's hit that total in nine of his 16 games.

That's probably the most impressive aspect of his growth. Ruzicka has become a more lethal offensive threat, mostly thanks to his ability to put pucks on net. One of the areas he struggled last year was certainly shot generation, averaging just about two per game. He's currently shooting an average of 4.625 times per game this year.
<h2>The future</h2>
Sarnia is clicking on all fronts, and it's reasonable to expect Ruzicka to follow suit.

But there is still room for improvement. We can't lie and say that increased powerplay time has not been a contributing factor to Ruzicka's success. He is currently two points away from matching his 2016-17 PP results, and PP contributions are 17 of his 27 points. That's a red flag for any prospect.

Although there are positive signs. Ruzicka is still on pace to outdo his 2016-17 5v5 self with regards to points (from 33 to 43) and shots (124 to 174). He does have some decreased scoring rates per 60, but his shooting percentage has currently nearly been cut in half (14.4% to 7.32%), so if that rebounds, we'll likely see more 5v5 production.

It is still early in the season, but the returns on Ruzicka are very promising for a fourth round pick. He is starting to show some of the flashes that got scouts excited when he was drafted by the Sting.

As already stated, consistency is key. There are always players that start out hot and fizzle out by the New Year. Ruzicka's production, especially with regards to shot generation, seems to indicate that he could sustain some of his early season numbers.

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