The Calgary Flames have defied the odds at every turn this season, from playing meaningful games in April when they were projected to be out of the race much sooner, to remaining a middle-of-the-pack team despite their well-documented struggle to generate offence. Calgary has seemingly caught lightning in a bottle in 2024-25, forcing the many hockey pundits who counted them out in September to eat their words.

Can you really blame people for overlooking this Flames team though?

The on-ice product is essentially as it was advertised in the summer, aside from Dustin Wolf’s heroics that have miraculously kept this squad on life support for months on end. Calgary has been just OK defensively, ranking 18th league-wide in expected goals against, as per MoneyPuck, a model that grades the quality of shots allowed. Conversely, their offence has been even worse than anticipated, ranking 25th in expected goals for and 31st in goals for per game. They are one of five teams that have yet to hit the 200-goal mark this season, dwelling alongside the Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins, San Jose Sharks and Nashville Predators, all of whom are a far cry from playoff contention.

Only 15 teams have made the playoffs with a negative goal differential in the cap era (since 2005-06), and the Flames are well below the median at -25, yet they sit smack dab in the middle of the league in 16th place overall. They’re one of three teams in the top 16 with a negative goal differential, although they’re well behind the Ottawa Senators (-1) and Minnesota Wild (-10). Even though Calgary is now very unlikely to make it to the post-season, there could be one or even two teams from the east to get in with fewer points.

Their current standing truly is an anomaly when you appreciate just how poor they are on the offensive side of the puck. Though this tweet is a few weeks old and the Flames are now the NHL’s second lowest-scoring club (by a thin 0.05 GF/GP), it still illustrates how ‘Bizarro World’ this season has been in Calgary.

The Flames won’t be finishing anywhere near the bottom and likely won’t even be picking within the top 15 thanks to Brad Trevliving’s parting gift.

What does all of this mean for the Flames? This season’s developments have provided reason for optimism and pessimism alike when pondering the future of this team. On one hand, the emergence of a young and already reliable goaltender in Wolf has been a home run for Calgary, as they now have stability for years to come at a coveted position. The flip side of the coin is that Wolf puts the Flames well out of range of a top draft pick now and in the near future.

Despite his unprecedented success, the rookie phenom is still not good enough to overcome this poor Calgary roster, and you’d be hard-pressed to find one that is. This leaves the Flames in the ‘mushy middle’, which is not an ideal place to be considering the potentially franchise-altering prospects on the board in the coming years (Gavin McKenna in 2026 & Landon Dupont in 2027).

Calgary’s unique season has polarized its fanbase, with many clamouring for the team to tank and acquire elite talent through the draft, while others believe they are, or at least were, still true contenders. Regardless of where you land on the fan spectrum, chances are you won’t be pleased when they inevitably finish the season as a middle-of-the-pack team.

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