The Calgary Flames are back to being the team that they were for most of last season. Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 8, the Flames were 10-7-2 which puts them 11th in the NHL in points and 16th in points percentage. An impressive run for a team that lacks the high end talent to be a true contender.

For fans who want the Flames to bottom out and secure a top three pick in the draft, the last five weeks of hockey should concern you. This is a Flames team who is playing much better than their 28th position in the standings would indicate.

They got off to a horrible start going 2-8-2 in the month of October.

But the team we’ve watched since Nov. 1 is closer to the group that we can expect to see for the rest of the season.

And the biggest reason for that is goaltending and team defence.

Since Nov. 1, the Calgary Flames have the 12th best team save percentage in the NHL. They are ranked that high despite a few ugly starts from Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley. Outside of games in Nashville (x2) and Tampa Bay, the Flames goalies have been excellent.

Here’s how they’ve done between Nov. 1 and Dec. 6:

Wolf and Cooley rank in the top 20 of every major goaltending statistic among 63 goalies to play at least 240 minutes since Nov. 1. When it comes to Wolf, you can expect him to play at this level between now and the end of the season. He might even out perform these numbers.

Cooley is still an unknown from a long term perspective. He has proved that he is an NHL goalie up to this point of the season. But can he keep this up? That remains to be seen. But if the Flames get this level of goaltending from Cooley between now and the end of the season, this team will not finish in the basement of the NHL standings.

Team defence is another reason why this Flames team is going to get themselves out of the bottom of the NHL standings.

The Flames are in the top half of many publicly available defensive metrics.

Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 6 at 5-on-5 the Flames rank 9th in HDCF% (53.25%), 11th in xGF% (52.51%), 13th in SCG% (50.26%), and 14th in CF% (51.05%).  They are in the top half of the league in all those categories.

Their numbers look similar when you break it down from a per 60 basis:

JFresh has the Flames ranked as one of the better defensive teams in the NHL based on his 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 and his 5-on-5 expected goal share.

5v5 Team Defence – December 7 pic.twitter.com/sIsh7uPfyD

On top of that, they have one of the best penalty kills in the NHL that ranks 8th operating at an 82.7% clip.

If the Flames continue to get the goaltending they have, play team defence like they have, and be a top 10 penalty kill like they have over the last five weeks, they will get themselves out of the basement of the NHL standings. They are only three points back of the second wild card spot in the Western Conference as of December 8th.

The one thing that is holding them back is goal scoring. The Flames have scored the fourth fewest goals and own the worst shooting percentage in the NHL. If they can start to get some bounces to go their way (like they did on Monday night), they will become a half decent team and get themselves into the mix for a wild card spot.

I don’t know if it will be enough to get them into the playoffs. But it’s going to get them into the mix. And that is the worst thing that could happen this season. It feels like we are on a collision course with mediocrity once again. Not good enough to make the playoffs. And not bad enough to get a top three pick in the draft.

This is a year where the Flames need to bottom out and secure a top three pick in the 2026 draft to select one of Gavin McKenna, Keaton Verhoeff, or Ivar Stenberg. They need to add an elite piece to their already deep prospect pool.

The only way to do this is to start trading veteran players as soon as possible. This Flames team will not truly bottom out the way they need to if all of Rasmus Andersson, Blake Coleman and Nazem Kadri remain on the roster up until, or past the trade deadline. Those players are helping keep this team in the mix, especially Andersson who is on track to have the best year of his career.

But do we really think the two decision makers, Murray Edwards and Don Maloney, are going to trade those players if the team continues to play the way they have over the last month? Will they trade them between now and the deadline if they are still in the mix for a playoff spot? Andersson is likely to go because he is a pending UFA, but I think there is a world where the Flames take a serious run at re-signing him.

But the chances of Coleman and Kadri moving this season are slim to none if the Flames remain in the mix.

I think team tank is in store for a few frustrating months of hockey ahead.