The Calgary Flames club that will begin the 2024-25 season is much different than the one that hit the ice a year ago.

Comparing the 2023 opening night line-up to today’s group reveals five departures from that group (Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube, A.J. Greer and Adam Ruzicka) and five new faces (Andrei Kuzmenko, Anthony Mantha, Ryan Lomberg, Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil).

Since a good amount of the 2023-24 forward group is returning, though, we can learn a thing or two about how Ryan Huska and his staff might operate this season based on how players were used and performed last campaign.

We’ll go from the players who faced the toughest opposition – via Dobber’s Frozen Tools – to the easiest opposition.

The two players who were absolutely buried, in terms of facing first-line opponents with heavy defensive zone starts, were Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. Their role was basically to give the rest of the team the high ground via eating the tough minutes… and it largely worked. Via Natural Stat Trick, Backlund had 53.91% expected goals for (xGF) and Coleman had 54.27% xGF. They met the challenge.

Facing a steady diet of second-line opposition, but with zone starts skewed towards the offensive zone, were Yegor Sharangovich and Jonathan Huberdeau. Sharangovich had 48.56% xGF and Huberdeau had 51.12%, but the discrepancy between the two can be explained by Sharangovich (a) playing fourth-line centre for the first chunk of the season and (b) being flexed to centre from time to time during the season.

Facing a mix of second and third-line opponents and fairly even zone starts were Anthony Mantha (in his time with Washington and Vegas) and Matt Coronato. Mantha had 55.32% xGF while Coronato had 46.10% xGF. It’s worth noting that Coronato was up and down a couple times from the AHL, and his first 10 games early in the season he bounced around the lineup a ton as the coaching staff tried to get the stars going offensively.

Four players got some nice deployments: third-line opposition and zone starts skewed towards the offensive end: Andrei Kuzmenko, Connor Zary, Nazem Kadri and Martin Pospisil. On paper, yeah, this makes sense: Kuzmenko needed some sheltering from tough match-ups (in Vancouver and Calgary), while Kadri and the Kids were a pretty consistent line for most of the season. All four players were in the black possession-wise: Kuzmenko had 52.63% xGF, Zary had 51.89% xGF, Kadri had 51.63% xGF and Pospisil had 53.71% xGF. They were given the high ground… and they used it well.

Dryden Hunt faced third-line opposition but his zone starts were about even. He had 48.29% xGF.

Kevin Rooney and Jakob Pelletier faced third-line opposition but their zone starts were skewed towards the defensive end. Rooney had 48.22% xGF while Pelletier had 43.57% xGF. (Both of them missed a bunch of time due to shoulder injuries in 2023-24, and Pelletier never really seemed to get his mojo going at the NHL or AHL levels.)

Facing fourth-liners and having their zone starts only slightly skewed towards the defensive end were Walker Duehr and Ryan Lomberg (in Florida). Their possession numbers, like their deployments, were very similar: Duehr had 47.20% xGF while Lomberg had 47.09% xGF.

The Flames used four forwards on their first power play unit and three forwards on their second. After Lindholm’s departure, the top unit was usually Kadri, Huberdeau, Sharangovich and Kuzmenko, while the second unit featured Backlund, Coleman and a rotating third forward.

On the penalty kill, the first unit was usually Backlund and Rooney, the second unit Sharangovich and Coleman, and they used a rotating third forward pairing to take advantage of fatigued power play personnel and create turnovers (typically Mangiapane and one other forward).

To me, the defensive pairings were easy to project and suss out. The forwards are both kinda easy and kinda difficult at once because of the team’s lack of tough-minutes options and a glut of forwards that, so far, have evidenced that they need to be sheltered a bit. (Or are the types of players that are expected to create offence, and therefore need to get those types of zone starts.)

You may notice that there are two vacant winger spots available, both with defensive zone starts. In theory, those spots would go to two of Zary, Coronato and Pelletier. On paper, Zary or Coronato could be a nice compliment to Backlund and Coleman, in that they’re smart offensive-minded players that can play with pace… and when you’re with Backlund and Coleman, odds are your line will have the puck a lot and so it could be an opportunity to generate counter-punch offence. (The X-factor here is the possibility they perhaps try Zary at centre, where he finished last season, in which case maybe he swaps spots with Sharangovich?)

If Zary or Coronato get the spot with Backlund, does the other flex to the fourth line by default? Coronato played well in that role late in the season, but is he better suited for a role (and linemates) with more offensive potential? And what would that mean for Pelletier, whose smarts and speed perhaps make him an ideal complimentary forward to fill out a line… but who hasn’t shown the consistency quite yet to grab hold of a specific spot or niche on the Flames’ roster.

Backlund and Coleman have defined roles and are there to make everyone’s lives easier in terms of match-ups. Beyond that, I think the forward lines will probably be a bit of a jumble all season.

The big questions for special teams revolve around the power play. Does Mantha get a spot on either unit? How about Zary or Coronato? The first unit was superb once Kuzmenko arrived, so is the solution simply to mix some combination of Backlund, Coleman, Mantha, Zary and Coronato as the third forwards on the second unit and see which groupings develop some chemistry? The penalty killing groups seem somewhat set on paper, though we’ll see who gets time as the third forward pairing.