By the end of Tuesday’s slate of National Hockey League games, the Calgary Flames will either be masters of their own playoff fate… or they’ll be mathematically eliminated from post-season contention.
Welcome to the third-to-last day of the 2024-25 season! Here’s what you need to know heading into Tuesday night’s games.

The standings

There are three teams that remain in contention for two Western Conference wild card playoff spots:
  • The Minnesota Wild, currently in the first wild card spot with 95 points. They have 33 regulation wins and one game remaining.
  • The St. Louis Blues, currently in the second wild card spot with 94 points. They have 31 regulation wins and one game remaining.
  • The Flames, currently in ninth place in the conference with 92 points. They have 30 regulation wins and two games remaining.
All three teams have games on Tuesday’s schedule: the final outings for both the Wild and Blues, and the second-last game for the Flames.

The docket

At 6 p.m. MT, St. Louis hosts the Utah Hockey Club while Minnesota hosts Anaheim.
At 7 p.m. MT, the Flames host the Vegas Golden Knights.
For those of you who like to keep track of such things, that means that the two earlier games should be ending at about the time that the second period is concluding in Calgary (assuming they both end in regulation).

What the Flames need to have happen in each game

St. Louis vs. Utah:
The Blues losing in regulation is the ideal scenario, as the Blues would finish with 94 points and the Flames would be able to pass them by finishing with 95 or 96 points.
If the Blues lose in overtime or a shootout, they would finish with 95 points and the Flames would be able to pass them by finishing with 96 points – they would need two wins, but it wouldn’t matter if they were in regulation or not.
If the Blues win in overtime or a shootout, they would finish with 96 points but the Flames would be able to pass them by finishing with 96 points – but only if they won both of their games in regulation. (The Flames would be able to pass the Blues via winning the regulation wins tiebreaker, 32 to 31.)
If the Blues win in regulation, they would clinch a playoff spot due to having 96 points and guaranteeing themselves a tie in the regulation wins tiebreaker. (The most the Flames could do would be tying them in regulation wins at 32, and the playoff spot would be determined by regulation and overtime wins, which the Blues have the edge in.)
Minnesota vs. Anaheim:
The Flames need the Wild to lose in regulation. If that happens, the Wild finish with 95 points and the Flames can pass them by winning both of their games (in any manner) and finishing with 96 points.
If the Wild get any points against Anaheim, the Flames cannot pass them in the standings and the Wild would clinch a playoff spot.
Calgary vs. Vegas:
Because the Flames don’t control their own fate heading into Tuesday’s games, everything is contingent on the results in the earlier games.
If the Wild get a point against Anaheim (e.g., win in any form or lose in overtime/shootout), the Flames cannot pass them regardless of what they do in the final two games.
If the Wild lose in regulation against Anaheim, the Flames need a win (in any form) against Vegas to have an opportunity to pass them in the standings on Thursday.
If the Blues get a regulation win against Utah, the Flames cannot pass them regardless of what they do in the final two games.
If the Blues get an overtime or shootout win against Utah, the Flames need a regulation win against Vegas to have an opportunity to pass them in the standings on Thursday.
If the Blues get an overtime or shootout loss against Utah, the Flames need a win (in any form) against Vegas to have an opportunity to pass them in the standings on Thursday.
If the Blues lose in regulation against Utah, the Flames need at least an overtime or shootout loss to have an opportunity to pass them in the standings on Thursday.
The worst-case scenario for the Flames is a point for Minnesota and a regulation win for St. Louis, which would clinch playoff spots for both teams before the Flames are even finished playing Vegas. The best-case scenario would be regulation losses for both teams, which would leave passing both teams as a possibility pending the Flames’ result against Vegas.

This article is a presentation of HNA Calgary

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