Last season looked to be the first long look Calgary Flames fans would get at Jakob Pelletier. Unfortunately, a pre-season injury prevented him from even suiting up for a game (at any level) until Jan. 26.
This year there is more of a battle for an extra winger at the NHL level, but his spot is not 100% gone by any means. With it nearing the end of preseason, he has reached the last cuts of this time of year but has he secured a spot? He’d be a very risky player to put on waivers so the Flames coaching staff and management group have to weigh the possibilities for this forward looking to bounce back. A previous first rounders on waivers sounds like a very appealing offer for other teams in the league looking for some depth.
Historical performance
Jakob Pelletier’s first professional appearance in the Flames organization was for the Stockton Heat in the 2021-22 season. He played on the top line all season with Matthew Phillips and had an outstanding rookie season. In his 66 games, he put up 27 goals and 35 assists for a total of 62 points. In playoffs that year, he had seven points in 13 games.
The following year, he made the move with the team to Calgary for the Wranglers’ inaugural season. He continued to thrive alongside Phillips and when Phillips was unable to stick at the NHL level, they gave Pelletier a shot. He made his NHL debut on Jan. 21, 2023 and stuck with the team for the remainder of the regular season. In his 24 NHL games, he had three goals and four assists.
With the Wranglers in 2022-23, Pelletier ended up playing in 35 games putting up 37 points consisting of 16 goals and 21 assists. He started the year with the team and once he was with the Flames in late January, he wasn’t seen with the Wranglers (outside of an All-Star break game in February) until mid-April.
That AHL post-season he rejoined his tandem with Phillips and put up 10 points in nine games. Including a very memorable overtime winner against the Abbotsford Canucks in 2023.
This past season, he was named on the opening night roster for the Flames alongside an injured Kevin Rooney, but he wasn’t able to return to regular game-play until late January. He started with a brief four game AHL assignment then played in 13 games with the Flames between early February and mid-March.
He was back with the Wranglers by Mar. 19 and played out the remainder of the regular season and into playoffs with them. His NHL numbers for the year finished at three points in 13 games and his AHL numbers were 12 points in 18 games. In playoffs, his production was lower than years previous with three points in six games and only one goal out of him.
Pelletier revealed during exit meeting media availabilities that the mental side of recovering from an injury and being away from the hockey team really affected him. There were also serious medical issues going on with his immediate family that also took his mind elsewhere. Jakob Pelletier knows he wasn’t fully himself last year and is really hopeful to make his return as a happy, motivated and fun-to-watch player.
Exceeding expectations
The Flames have been giving Pelletier the opportunity to succeed with his ice time and line pairings. Especially with some time on a veteran line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. Even so, his skills haven’t stood out exceptionally. Especially with the others in the prospect pool that seem more prepared. He’s had good speed and the reports from training camp say he’s taken a step up in his fitness, however.
At this point, for Jakob Pelletier to exceed expectations, he would need to first make the opening night roster again and play nearly a full season with the Flames near the middle of the lineup. He’ll need to show an edge in his game that brings his scoring back and up to a more frequent NHL level. To do that, the options may need to be to scratch him at times in the NHL versus risking an AHL assignment.
Meeting expectations
To meet expectations, Pelletier may not even crack the opening night roster but will likely sprinkle some in Flames games over the year. He appears posed to spend his first half of the season (at least) with the Wranglers to lead scoring down in the AHL and earn the confidence to be effective at the NHL.
I could see his split in games being similar to what we saw out of Matt Coronato last season. He’s got to get back to his top-line multi-point games with the Wranglers to show he’s earned his spot back and earn his confidence back. However, as we’ve realized, his path down to the Wranglers is not as easy as it has been in previous years and if the Flames take a step back from him, another team might scoop him up.
Below expectations
If Pelletier is a Wrangler all year with slim to no AHL opportunities, that would be a surprise that puts him below his expected performance this year. To not even be at the top of the list for call-ups he would need to be getting outplayed by some of the other Wranglers like Justin Kirkland or William Strömgren or Adam Klapka and Matt Coronato if they’re not in the NHL.
Another scenario that would delay his development again would be an injury flare up. Hopefully the off-season was productive and rehabilitative for him so that possibility is slim, but things could change on a dime. For Pelletier, he doesn’t seem like a player to decline into a point where he’s not a consideration for NHL play so fingers crossed his performance doesn’t get to this point.
2024-25 projection
Last year took a lot out of Pelletier and what he could really use to kick this season off is a good confidence building. Even if that is playing a month or so with the Wranglers alongside guys he knows very well or going back to his “Dad” Jonathan Huberdeau for some advice in his professional hockey career. I think most of the fanbase would like to see Pelletier around this year and if he is lost to waivers or even to a trade later in the year, that will be a bit of a gut punch.
His pre-season hasn’t been perfect by any means and his absence from the final pre-season game makes you think the coaching staff has made up their mind. Which way will that end up being? Flames head coach Ryan Huska spoke to the assembled media (via Flames TV) earlier this week about his evaluation criteria for “bubble” players in the lineup and said these were the factors:
“How they handle the pressure. Can they make the right decisions? Can they make the right plays under more pressure than what they’re normally faced with? Are they executing the way we’re asking the team to play?”
When it came to Pelletier specifically, in the same chat with the media Huska said:
“I think he’s been a little in and out at times. We want to see that consistency from him. What separates Jakob from everybody else is his ability to skate and pressure teams into mistakes. So when he’s on the ice, that’s what we want to see. Whether it be a penalty kill role or a five on five role. That’s how he’s most effective. So that’s what we’re looking for out of him.”
I’d like to see Pelletier get, “the old Pelts back,” as he put it late last season. He might need some games with the Wranglers (if he clears waivers) to prove to himself he can still be effective and deserves a spot at the NHL level. If he is also able to stay healthy and isn’t battling any leftover aches and pains from last year, I don’t see why he couldn’t be rotating in the Flames lineup before the end of the calendar year. Hopefully, he isn’t snatched up by another organization between now and then.
