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4 Nations Beyond the Boxscore: Canada survives late surge from Finland to win
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Photo credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images
Flash Stevens
Feb 18, 2025, 08:00 ESTUpdated: Feb 17, 2025, 20:51 EST
Canada showed up early, hungry for that rematch with the Americans in the final and were able to come up clutch at the end despite almost letting what felt like a sure thing slip away. Canada beat Finland by a 5-3 score.
FIN: CF% – 36.16%|| SCF% – 40.65%|| HDCF% – 54.68%|| xGF% – 45.31%
CAN: CF% – 63.84%|| SCF% – 59.35%|| HDCF% – 45.32%|| xGF% – 54.69%
It’s a Team Game – This game was defined through roughly two ten minutes stretches. The first ten where Canada’s big guns came out hungry. Brayden Point took the spot next to Connor McDavid with the result being an instant boost in chemistry. The first goal was a terrible turnover from Roope Hintz followed by McDavid taking advantage of poor Nikolas Matinpalo before sniping one through traffic. Next, we got some pretty passing that led to Nathan MacKinnon extending the lead which was eventually followed up with some great hands in tight from Point. Finland was stunned and unable to resist the Canadian forces. Fast forward to the last ten minutes of the game where Canada decided to play defence and rely on their goaltender. That didn’t go the way Jon Cooper hoped as Finland showed they were one of the four nations for a reason. Mikael Granlund made things quite close as Jordan Binnington flailed about, failing to maintain composure and stop pucks. Finally, the madness would end off the stick of the Captain, Sidney Crosby, sending Canada into a rematch with the United States on Thursday.
Corsi King – It should come as no surprise after his late surge that Mikael Granlund (55.41 CF%) was on top for Finland. He was great with the Wild, decent with the Predators, a ghost with the Penguins, and a resurgent life force for the Sharks. Now he gets a chance to make a name for himself on a true contender like the Dallas Stars. His showing in this tournament, and their mix of talent, could lead to a very productive piece. Tournaments like this are springboards for the latter half of the season – keep an eye on him.
Mitch Marner (78.79 per cent) saw his ice time and roll reduced and it really aided the team. More chemistry and better system play went on against Finland than against America on Saturday. Travis Sanheim (77.78 per cent) also had a game where he showed he belonged on this team. There was talk of trying to have Thomas Harley play in this one – something I thought was quite disrespectful to Sanheim after he was named to the original team. He ended up being rewarded with the assist on Brayden Point’s (73.70 per cent) goal in reward for his efforts.
Under Pressure –
Taken By Chance – Finland did generate more high danger chances, but game context matters in this situation. The way Canada played for a long stretch – from a four-goal lead to needing that empty net goal – invites the opposition to get better opportunities. I write about how I hate the Flames going into defence first mode with a one-goal lead all the time – this felt like that. Finland led with Kaapo Kaako (51.15 SCF% || 100 HDCF%) who had a six to nothing chance ratio in high danger attempts. He made great plays to the middle of the slot and was actively trying to produce more offence. Certainly, deserved more of a look than what Finland gave him. At least their coach didn’t use Patrik Laine (20.20 per cent || 0 per cent) over him.
Canada had their best players be their best players. MacKinnon (59.95 per cent || 57.28 per cent) stepped up early and drove a lot of play through the neutral zone. Defenders accounting for his speed have to maintain gap control – and with his speed that gap is more sizable than others. A player of his calibre with that space doesn’t need much to make things happen. The only line that got outscored was the fourth line for Canada, which won’t be much of a worry in the championship. If the game is close you aren’t going to pull MacKinnon off for Sam Bennett (44.62 per cent || 32.32 per cent). I’m sure even Sam Bennett would tell you that.
xG Breakdown –
xGF% – I want to shout out some of Finland’s role players who are tremendous hockey players in their own right. Artturi Lehkonen (58.64 xG%) is a surefire top six winger on one of the best contenders in the league. Niko Mikkola (50.76 per cent) was a physical force all tournament long. Lastly, Esa Lindell was a force eating up minutes in every game – there’s a reason Jake Oettinger (USA) said he loves playing behind Lindell.
Connor McDavid (75.87 per cent) made me smile – Flames fans reading this can use this as evidence in a trial against me. I’m okay with that. On the first goal McDavid realizes he doesn’t have a decent shot attempt after Matinpalo used a good stick and a great angle to severely limit the quality. Instead of taking the bad attempt this crazy guy keeps possession, re-loops himself without needing to pass off, and comes back down the alley to rip home a crucial goal. He’s got quite the stage set for himself on Thursday night. Sidebar: Sidney Crosby (64.86 per cent) is a treasure to the game of hockey.
Game Flow –
Game Score –
Shot Heatmap –
In The Crease – Kevin Lankinen (-3.20 GSAx at 5v5) did not become a wall. He got beat up pretty bad early and Juuse Saros (0.62 GSAx at 5v5) finished the game without getting scored on. Saros’ effort mattered because the score did get to within one goal in the final minutes. Jordan Binnington (1.13 GSAx at 5v5) went from silencing his critics to having them be louder than ever with a collapse that featured some questionable goals. My opinion is the team was playing a sit back and wait to get scored on approach that you can only play if you have a goaltender like Connor Hellebuyck/Carey Price. If they want to have success against the Americans sitting back is the worst thing they could do – we already have evidence Binnington didn’t thrive under those conditions after this game.
The Goals –
Flash’s 3 Stars –
1) Nathan MacKinnon
2) Brayden Point
3) Mikael Granlund
(Stats compiled from Naturalstattrick.com // Game Score from Hockeystatcards.com // xG and Under Pressure charts from HockeyViz.com // Game Flow and Shot Heatmap from NaturalStatTrick.com)
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