Less than a year ago, Gavin McKenna was being likened to some of the greatest prospects ever to come out of the Canadian Hockey League, and for good reason. The comparisons to Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, and Connor Bedard weren’t based solely on speculation, McKenna’s production as a 17-year-old was as good or better than those aforementioned National Hockey League superstars.

For context, here’s how McKenna’s Western Hockey League stats last season stack up against the others in their equivalent season:

So if you were to tell me six months ago that McKenna was anything but a sure-fire first overall pick, I’d be stunned, yet that’s the conversation that draft experts have been having for quite some time, and in the eyes of some pundits, McKenna has lost his grip on the top spot.

McKenna had an illustrious 2024-25 season with the WHL’s Medicine Hat Tigers. He took home the CHL player of the year award and led his team to the Ed Chynoweth Cup on the back of his mind-boggling 38 points in 16 playoff games. The Tigers lost just two games en route to WHL infamy, and were a perfect 3-0 in the Memorial Cup before falling short to a monster London Knights team in the tournament final.

A month later, the then 17-year-old McKenna committed to Penn State for the 2025-26 season, headlining a large group of CHL players who took advantage of the NCAA rule change allowing such a move. For the Whitehorse native, a change of scenery from Junior hockey to uber-competitive college hockey in his draft year was one that seemed logical, seeing as though he had nothing left to prove in the WHL.

The effect that move had on McKenna has been two-fold thus far. Firstly, he’s proven himself against stronger competition, posting 29 points in 22 games. Secondly, his production has not been dazzling enough to keep him as a consensus top prospect.

A lot of the criticism around McKenna’s production this season is likely influenced by the fact that we’ve recently been spoiled with amazing college campaigns from draft-eligible players, particularly Macklin Celebrini’s 64 points in 38 games with Boston University in 2024. So, although McKenna’s stats don’t jump off the page, they’re encouraging nonetheless. He challenged himself in his draft year and, by all accounts, has passed with flying colours, yet his lack of gaudy production has significantly dinged his draft stock.

As is the case with most stats, context is crucial, and McKenna’s NCAA stats need context to be better understood. Though he’s been a fixture in Penn State’s special teams, McKenna hasn’t been playing on the team’s top line, and on top of that, has not had much consistency in his linemates on the second line. Despite not being put in the best position to succeed, McKenna still leads his team in points and has recently been their main offensive driver.

That said, much of the shake-up in draft rankings can be credited to the near-unprecedented success that other top prospects have had this season. Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg — NHL Central Scouting’s number one ranked international prospect — is having a historic draft year in the SHL. Stenberg’s 28 points in 29 games put him on pace to have one of the best SHL seasons from a draft-eligible player, ever.

Then there’s Keaton Verhoeff, Central Scouting’s number two ranked North American prospect, who checks all the boxes as a defenceman. He’s big (6’4”, 208-pounds) plays the position soundly, and has plenty of offensive production to boot (17 points in 22 NCAA games). He also checks an extra box, he’s right-handed, righty blueliners have increasingly become a commodity in the NHL, and a lot of teams would salivate over the prospect of selecting him first overall if given the chance.

Both players make great case to surpass McKenna, but is the Nittany Lion being over analyzed at this point in the draft process? There are many ways to compare Mckenna’s production in junior to the NCAA, but it’s also important to note his motivation in making the jump to college hockey. The easy route would have been to play one more season in junior and secure his position as the number one pick in 2026, yet McKenna opted to prioritize his development, its difficult to fault him for that.

All things considered, the skepticism around McKenna being a sure thing at number one is understandable, however, it’s probably not enough to bump him down in draft rankings.

By accumulating draft picks and making shrewd selections, the Flames has accrued an outstanding pool of prospects over the last few drafts. What Calgary’s pipeline lacks however, is a true franchise-altering youngster, worthy of building a team around.

Seeing as though the Flames have been a basement dweller this season and seem primed for a top-five draft selection come June, their amateur scouts are surely keeping an eye on each of these prospects, in hopes that they’ll be in a position to add one at the draft.

As a bottom-five team with little hope of beating out the Vancouver Canucks for 32nd place, Calgary should be pleased with all of the discourse that surrounds the top of the draft. In the likely case that the lottery balls don’t break their way, it may mean that McKenna could fall to them, and even if he doesn’t, they may end up with a player who legitimately challenged to go number one. In simpler terms, there may be multiple first-overall calibre players at the top of the board this year, meaning the Flames don’t have to select first overall in order to pick one.

As you may know, Calgary has never selected in the top three of the draft, and considering the abundance of premium talent atop the board, this looks like an ideal year for that trend to end.

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