A brief analytic look at newest Flame Michael Stone

By now, you’ve heard the news. The Flames have acquired Coyotes defenceman Michael Stone, paying a third round pick and a conditional 2018 fifth. 

Certainly a surprising move. The Flames, having already snagged Matt Bartkowski earlier this week, are now at eight defencemen that all require waivers. Stone wasn’t really expected or necessary, considering that the Flames have about two or three other guys on the team that can do what he does. 

So what did the team see in Stone, and what are they hoping to get? Find out after the jump.

In recent weeks, it is no surprise that the Flames have a defensive mess on their hands. Outside of Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton, there is not much to pin hopes on. Matt Bartkowski, having not played an NHL game in a year, was slotted in against Vancouver and many considered him an instant upgrade.

The biggest elephant in the room is Dennis Wideman. Since his magical season two years ago, he’s been trending downwards even faster than expected. There’s been egregious giveaways, blown coverages, slow skating, and everything you do not want out of a defenceman for someone playing 20 minutes a night. 

Let’s be clear: all of these things have been around for a while, but a little bit of recency bias makes the problems even worse. He finally got ice time cut in recent games and, in my opinion, it appears that they’re going to move him to the pressbox full time. Wideman has been an active detriment to the Flames in recent weeks, and with the playoff race tightening up, there’s no choice but to sit him.

They’re down a second pairing defenceman, so they went and got (what they thought) was another one.

Someone who is not that great:

What the underlyings point to is someone who is so not that great, that he barely replaces the player he’s replacing:

Right now, Stone is currently having his worst possession season in a long time. His CF% of 42.37% is worse than his rookie number of 42.82%. Since becoming an NHL regular, his CFrel% has safely been around zero, indicating that he’s neither terrible nor great. However, this season he has put up a -4.98 CFrel% performance, indicating a major step backwards.

The usage chart perhaps sheds a bit more light. Stone doesn’t play with great teammates and doesn’t get great zone starts, which could perhaps explain his struggles. He also faces relatively tough competition in line with the Flanes’ top defenders. If the idea is that he replaces Wideman on Brodie’s right side, we can maybe hope that Brodie and more favourable start conditions can help Stone.

But there’s a lot of concrete proof that he will still be an anchor. Stone’s WOWYs aren’t promising. When his main partner, Alex Gologoski, is separate from him, his CF% rises by nearly 5%. Hell, nearly everyone’s CF% rises by that same number. That’s absolutely atrocious.

This season, Stone has performed like the many players who have gone through waivers this year. So why would the Flames send away assets for this guy?

I briefly alluded to it, but there was once a time where Stone was a very useful player.

From 2014-16, he was probably one of the better defencemen on the Coyotes, behind guys like Keith Yandle and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. He had positive CFrel% stats (1.29% in 14/15, and 0.36 in 15/16). Even when he was separate from Yandle and OEL, he was not the trainwreck he is this year. OEL jumped by 3.8 CF% at the end of the season, and Yandle only by 1.7 CF%.

What happened between then and now is the two major injuries no sports star ever returns from unscathed. At the end of the season, he injured both his ACL and MCL requiring reconstructive surgery during the offseason. That has definitely impacted Stone, both from a visual and an analytic perspective.

Michael Stone has not been the guy he was for the past two seasons, and to stake your hopes on him being that Michael Stone is not a good idea. He physically isn’t that same player.

Instead of replacing Wideman/Engelland/whoever, he’s likely to join them in the mass defensive exodus that will happen at the end of the year. This deal, while relatively low cost, is still likely going to be a waste of a third round pick. There were better defencemen, right-handed too, out there and the Flames should’ve pursued them instead.

Sure, perhaps he’ll succeed. With easier circumstances and better teammates, it could be viable. I will also remind you that this was the argument for Troy Brouwer.