Betway Bets of the Day: Bet on these pair of defencemen to shoot tonight

5 months ago

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Tonight is a rare Tuesday night when there’s no Calgary Flames hockey. There are still 11 games to make some extra money on tonight — let’s get into it.

St. Louis Blues & Toronto Maple Leafs over 6.5 (-110)

Your $10.00 bet would return $19.09.

The Blues and Maple Leafs have eclipsed this total in five straight head-to-head meetings, averaging 9.4 goals per game. In the Blues’ last 10 games, they’ve gone over this total in six games, while the Maple Leafs have gone over in four. The Blues have gone over this total in five of his last six road games and the Leafs have covered this line in 15 of their 24 home games.

Tonight’s confirmed goaltending matchup: the Blues Jordan Binnington (18-13-2) and his 2.89 goals against average take on the Maple Leafs Ilya Samsonov (9-4-6) and his 3.38 goals against average.

Vince Dunn over 2.5 shots on goal (+125)

Your $10.00 bet would return $22.50.

Vince Dunn has suddenly found his shooting prowess as of late. He has cleared this line in four of his last five games, averaging 3.2 shots on 9.4 shot attempts per game. And it’s not just one game registering outlandish volume to skew these numbers. Dunn has 13, 10, eight, eight and eight shot attempts over that span. Today’s opponent, the New York Islanders, allow the fourth most shots on goal to defencemen, averaging 9.4 to the position over their last 10 games.

Rasmus Dahlin over 2.5 shots on goal (-150)

Your $15.00 bet would return $25.00.

Dahlin has cleared in two of his last three games, averaging 4.3 shots on 8.3 shot attempts per game. At home this season, Dahlin is clearing this line at a 62% clip, averaging 3.1 shots on 6.7 shot attempts per game. Against the Los Angeles Kings, he has covered this line in two of his last three games, averaging 3.0 shots on 5.7 shot attempts.

The Kings are your typical shots on goal target for defencemen, but they’ve seen a spike in shots allowed to the position over the last 10 games, averaging the fifth most in the league, 9.7 per game.

Los Angeles has been fairly undisciplined as of late, allowing 4.4 power play opportunities over the last 20 days. Let’s take a look at where the Kings are allowing the most of their shots on goal on the penalty kill by using the data provided by Hockey Viz.

The dark brown areas show where they allow the majority of their shots, while the dark purple areas show where they allow the least amount of shots. By this graph, the Kings allow most of their shots on the left and right side in front of the net, and from the point.

Now, let’s look at where Dahlin’s shot chart and see if these two graphs align.

Shocker, the defenceman registers most of his shots from the point. While it may seem obvious, it’s important to double-check your thinking, as defencemen like Roman Josi tend to trail down from the blue line when getting a shot off.

Last Game Recap

Calgary Flames & New York Rangers Total Under 6.5 – WON – (+$7.42)

Alexis Lafreniere over 2.5 Shots on Goal – WON – (+$9.52)

It was the Flames that saw their winning streak come to an end, losing 2-0, cashing the game total under. Lafreniere finished with three shots on seven shot attempts.

I appreciate you all being patient with me as we come out of this slump. We were -$90 coming out of the All-Star Break and have turned it around quickly, almost back in the positives — let’s get there tonight.

All-Time Record: 30-31 (-$12.85)

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