Can Dillon Dube use effective 2022-23 performance as a springboard?

Dillon Dube was one of the players the Flames were counting on to elevate his game in the 2022-23 season. He did that to a certain extend by putting up a career high in assists and points. But was it what the Flames were looking for? Can we expect to see more from Dube in the future?

Let’s dive into Dube’s 2022-23 season and beyond.

It was an interesting season from a numbers perspective for Dillon Dube. His counting stats were solid as he put up a career high in assists with 27 and tied his career high in goals with 18. He was able to produce at these career highs thanks in large part to playing on the Flames top line with Elias Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli.

Dube also played more on both sides of special teams last season. He played 111 minutes on the power play putting up four points. Moving forward it would be nice to see Dube get more time on the PP as he has one of the better wrist shots on the roster and could use his speed on zone entries.

Dube also stepped up on the penalty kill on a pairing with Andrew Mangiapane. That duo brought great speed and energy to the Flames PK.

(All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick)

The interesting part about Dube’s season is that his underlying numbers were some of the worst among Flames forwards, despite playing alongside Lindholm and Toffoli for half the season.

When Dube was on the ice at 5-on-5, the Flames were outscored 55-51. Dube had the worst high danger chances for percentage (HDCF%) and had the second worst expected goals for percentage (xGF%) among all Flames forwards.

There is a lot to like about Dube’s game from an eye test perspective. He has all the tools to want to see from a middle six winger. He is the fastest skater on the Flames, he has a good wrist shot, and he competes like crazy.

But unfortunately, there is an inconsistency to Dube’s game that he hasn’t been able to shake during his time in the NHL. Dube has been the streakiest player on the Flames dating back to the 2020 bubble playoffs in Edmonton. Dube can go through stretches where he will score 15 points in 15 games. And then follow that up with 7 points in 21 games.

A perfect example is how he finished the 2021-22 season. In his last 23 games he put up 17 points. And then in 12 playoff games he put up one assist.

(Dillon Dube’s scoring splits over the last three seasons)

Dube needs to find more consistency in his game. Because he looks fantastic during some stretches, and in others he is a non-factor. He needs to be a more predicable player from a production standpoint of he wants to be a regular in the top six.

The soon to be 25-year-old is signed for one more season with the Flames. He will be an restricted free agent in the summer of 2024. He currently has a cap hit of $2.3 million.

I would consider Dube as part of the Flames core moving forward. He is someone who I think the team should keep around for a while. He has a skillset with his speed that is needed in this Flames lineup. And he is still at the age where he can improve his game.

Dube is from the area (Cochrane to be exact) and has been someone who has spoken publicly about how much he loves being a Calgary Flame. You need to keep those types of younger players around in an organization like the Flames who don’t have the best reputation around the league as a premier place to play. You want to reward those who have been great soldier for your team.

I would wait to sign Dube until the 2024 off-season. You have him under team control. Let’s see what direction Dube’s game goes in before committing a long-term extension to the player.