Flames fourth round targets: Pavel Gogolev

The Flames under Brad Treliving have started trusting their OHL scouts more and more, mostly because of the rewards they reap. Excluding Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk -two obvious choices- the Flames have plucked Rasmus Andersson and Andrew Mangiapane from the OHL, players who could become regular NHL contributors just three years removed. Tyler Parsons and Adam Ruzicka have their blemishes, but are pretty good picks that are trending in the right direction.

If history is any indication, they’re likely going to be looking at picking another OHLer this upcoming draft. If they’re looking that direction, and are also looking for a goal-scoring right wing, Pavel Gogolev is a fine option. Despite a thirty goal season, Gogolev is undervalued, and could probably be available when the Flames eventually step up in the fourth round.

Originally from Moscow, Gogolev has been in Canada since the age of 13 plying his trade in prep schools and working his way up to the OHL, aside from a brief two game stint with his Russian youth team at age 15. His speed and his sniping abilites excited the Peterborough Petes, who selected him eighth overall in the OHL Priority Draft.

His rookie season didn’t go that well. Gogolev only picked up five goals and six assists in 53 games for the Petes, mostly playing a depth role for the club.

Gogolev played the entire year with a pretty dismal Petes squad, standing out as one of the only enjoyable pieces on a team that finished third last in the OHL. Given a larger role on the team, He started the season pretty hot, picking up eight points in six preseason games and matching his rookie year output in the first 15 games.

The Russian sniper fell off the tracks somewhere in mid-October, only picking up one point in eleven games over the span of a month. Aside from that, Gogolev was a relatively consistent producer for the Petes. He featured heavily in the top six, often being the go-to guy for the Petes when they were down. He became a pretty good sniper along the way, picking up 30 goals for the Petes, including three hat-tricks.

Gogolev’s statline is pretty pedestrian at first glance, but digging deeper reveals some intriguing things. He finished third across the whole OHL for 5v5 goals (26 of them). Among first time eligibles, he finished seventh in 5v5 points and fourth in 5v5 primary points.

One of the intriguing things about Gogolev, as that last pargaraph indicated, is that he produced the majority of his points at 5v5 despite having a skill set that would apparently lend itself to powerplay success. The seven points that weren’t 5v5 points were powerplay points, but he was mostly a secondary option for the Petes team that ranked ninth in powerplay success. His impact at 5v5 is hard to understate, chipping in on around 28% of all Peterborough 5v5 goals.

The Flames need speedy, goalscoring right wingers. Gogolev is a speedy, goalscoring right winger. It’s a match.

Gogolev appears to still be a work in progress -his defensive acumen isn’t perfect- but his offensive abilities are scary and something that the Flames sorely lack in the prospect pool. With limited picks, it’s hard to pass him up. Gogolev’s high upside is hard to find that late in the draft.

Availability is another question. Gogolev is currently ranked 79th for NA skaters by Central Scouting, and 85th by Future Considerations. After the first round, players will generally slip much further than their ranking so Gogolev is likely to be available in the fourth round, but not much further than that.

Pavel Gogolev | Ryan O’Reilly | Axel Andersson | Merrick Rippon | Riley Stotts