FlamesNation Mailbag: A formality

The Flames have clinched the playoffs, and the division and conference are hopefully soon to come. Without much to talk about, let’s look forward to the playoffs and see how the Flames could approach the postseason.

I think what they have is mostly ideal. If the first line can remember that they’re a first line and if the third line could chip in more often, they’ve got one of the most solid top-to-bottom playoff rosters. They’ve made it this far, and the typical lineup has been the one that has brought them the most success. Various experiments haven’t been fruitful for sustained periods of time, so I think they’ll go to battle with them come playoff time.

I say “mostly ideal” because the third line is the one that really needs tinkering. Since March began, Austin Czarnik is the top scorer on that line with three points in nine games (Mark Jankowski and Sam Bennett have two). That’s a bit generous even, as that line has only combined for a goal on one of those points. To add more insult to injury, it was actually only two-thirds of that line (Andrew Mangiapane’s goal against Columbus: Jankowski and Czarnik assisted, Bennett was out).

So, what do you do? Do you scratch Czarnik in an attempt to get James Neal going in the playoffs? Do you scratch Bennett for Neal? Czarnik for Bennett? Do you want to promote Mangiapane to reward him for his good work, or is that going to disrupt the good work of the fourth line? Do you try Dillon Dube and see if his AHL time has formed him into an NHL player? Do you try some other combination of strong AHL performers? Do you just leave it be and see if they can dig themselves out? There’s a hundred different ways you could go about this, but I’d be lying if I said that there’s one simple trick to make them a good line.

But that’s mostly hand-wringing. The Flames haven’t leaned on their third line heavily this season, so any improvements from them is just gravy. If the individual parts of that line can continue to make noise on special teams, the Flames are fine.

As for the other game one element, it should absolutely be David Rittich starting game one.

Mike Smith is undoubtedly playing his best hockey this season during this stretch, but a lot of the underlying issues that have sunk his SV% to below .900 still persist. He still bellyflops when trying to make saves, he still makes dubious puck playing decisions, and he still loses track of the puck. I’ll admit that he’s settled down on some of his nastier habits, but that they still exist is a problem. I counted two times Vancouver shot wide when Smith was lying prone on the ice. Playoff teams aren’t going to miss those.

Smith is unpredictable in net and that’s not going to fly in the playoffs where the margins are so tight. Every game counts. Going on the road with a 2-0 lead versus a 1-1 tie (or, hopefully not, an 0-2 deficit) can make all the difference. I’m not saying that Smith is going to let beach balls in while Rittich is going to turn into a brick wall, but one is more stable while the other can fluctuate between the two extremes. The team needs to trust the goalie that’s put them in the playoffs.

When we last checked in on Elias Lindholm and the first line, things were rather dour. Besides Johnny Gaudreau, the rest of the first line was struggling heavily.

The day after that was posted, Gaudreau had a six-point night and his linemates picked up four points each against the Devils. Everything was back to normal, right?

Not exactly. Starting with New Jersey, Lindholm has picked up six shots and 19 shot attempts at all situations in six games. Monahan had similar numbers, picking up seven shots and 15 shot attempts in the same time frame. However, Monahan missed two games and two-thirds of another one with illness. To put it simply, Lindholm has similar production in nearly twice as many games as Monahan. To compare to Gaudreau, the standard of excellence, he had 21 shots and 44 shot attempts in those six games. Yikes.

It’s a small sample, so take what you will from it, but consider the 2.667 games Lindholm played without Monahan. He was fine against the Jets, but was held shot-less in the game against Columbus and in the two-thirds against the Rangers. In fact, the game against Columbus was a complete donut, with Lindholm not attempting a single shot in 21 minutes of ice time.

I said it in the link above, but it’s worth repeating: the first line is good enough that they can survive one player struggling, but they simply can’t survive two players struggling. Lindholm’s struggles have been more concerning because he’s seemingly been reduced to a non-entity when he’s fighting it. You can expect a great player to have some sort of floor to their performances, at least putting forward a good effort even if it doesn’t result in points, but Lindholm seems to have gone completely invisible.

I think Lindholm rebounds soon enough. He’s been a great player for three-quarters of the season thus far, and he hasn’t had purely luck-driven results, so it’s very likely that he comes back to form. The Flames shouldn’t think that Lindholm has turned back into a pumpkin, but they should worry that he can be reduced to a non-factor.

Dillon Dube is probably number one. His NHL stint is far behind in the rearview mirror, but he was still acceptable during that time. He’s found his footing in the AHL and is probably ready for the show. It’s unlikely the Flames trust him given that it’s the playoffs, but they also threw Bennett into that fire, so it’s not entirely unprecedented.

I don’t think they call up Lazar for anything other than insurance. They didn’t make any significant use of him during his emergency stint, and they probably won’t go back to him for the playoffs. He’s been okay in the AHL, but he’s certainly not on the level of Dube, and definitely not on the level of Alan Quine (who is already here in Calgary). If they want experience, Quine somehow leads the AHL pack with 10 playoff games and five playoff points.

The only other forward call-up is likely Anthony Peluso for very dumb reasons. Please do not play Peluso.

Calling them “the fourth line” with quotes attached is a good enough nickname. It indicates irony, you see.